only problem is the former seem to be happening more and more frequently.
Based on the SST patterns, we could get hit by the tropics again this year.
Depends on how strong the SE Ridge is, if it's really strong than the SST wont matter because it still steer TC to our SW.
Looking at 11 yr patterns 1944, 1955, and 1999 all had east coast major hits.
Based on a really strong SE Ridge this summer, I'd look for late season hits September and maybe even later, rather than the early season ones we saw last summer. The above 11 yr patterns were like that.