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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
LibertyBell replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Technology has been part of the problem and it's a fool's wish to think that technology is going to provide endless solutions, at some point technology will run out, as the amount of resources available on a finite planet are.....finite. We're already almost at that point already, with a crowded planet using up more resources than we are putting back into the planet by a factor of 1.7x. This is not sustainable. The part mentioned about "venturing out into the universe" is interesting, and these problems being faced by other civilizations in other parts of the universe. The most reasonable explanation is that in the overwhelmingly vast majority of cases these species never get to colonize space (the reason why we haven't seen any signs of any), because the problems they cause lead to their own extinction or at the very least reduction to a pre-technology state. The Great Filter lies ahead of us, folks, and it's a massive one indeed. -
Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
LibertyBell replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
But humanity is a force set against Nature- by humanity itself! And the depiction of humanity as an overpopulating virus is entirely accurate-- because humanity has singlehandedly started the sixth mass extinction event in the planet's history. And this isn't just about climate change, although that gets the most coverage, this is also about the unsustainable way we farm, destroying precious forests via logging and burning (something that actually started hundreds of years ago, way before we started using fossil fuels), the chemicals we use and abuse that destroy the environment and kill pollinators like pesticides and fertilizers, and the plastics and other trash we dump into the environment. Climate change is only one of many many problems caused by humanity. -
yeah I like to use LGA or JFK for snow measurements they seem to undermeasure the biggies both Feb 1961 and Feb 1969 were undermeasured at the Park and some would contend so was Jan 1996. So Jan 1836 may have had more snow than March 1888? Was that the below 0 snowstorm or was that a different one Uncle? Maybe that was Jan 1857
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It has been traditionally, but I think that's changing. Before 1996, big January storms ( > 10 inches) were few and far between. I think if you compare double digit events we're seeing a transition towards them occurring in January more often, especially the really high end events ( > 20 inches). Before January 1996, I can't find any 20 inch January events.
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it actually has been evolving in that direction, it used to be February but our largest snowstorms have been happening in January over the past few decades (with a couple of exceptions- but the largest snowstorms that covered the widest area- like Jan 96 and Jan 16 were, as labeled, in January lol.)
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thats a great reason to keep it at 2 weeks until we get that next big technological paradigm shift (AI, like you mentioned.) Actually the best type of AI is AGI and if that ever happens, it would be a real game changer in every aspect of society (not just science and technology.) https://www.zdnet.com/article/what-is-artificial-general-intelligence/ What is artificial general intelligence? An Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) would be a machine capable of understanding the world as well as any human, and with the same capacity to learn how to carry out a huge range of tasks.
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why do so many ignore the nao in their forecasts? long range forecasts are USELESS because nao forecasting isn't reliable. astrology is more accurate-- the point being how accurate a long range forecast is is no higher than one would expect from randomness
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January is our most reliable month for cold and snow
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Actually looks close to Rockaway Blvd/Tpke
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Right, so is this why they're usually marginal in early season snowfall events while even JFK might get all snow in late October or November? Do you have a similar map for JFK, Chris, I think their sitting is actually near the Nassau county border?
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Oh if you mean cold air damming that's different, it's not a downslope wind, it's wind being blocked by the mountains so the cold air "piles up" near the foothills
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One would think a downslope wind would actually cause warming not cooling. I think you mean CAA (cold air advection)
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Just a two day warm up now, lol two days in the 50s weekend of 4-5. And 20s for highs and teens for lows at the end of the run? That looks like a snow signal in there with both the high and low at the same 28 temp at the end of the run
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Did you see how places in the south like Atlanta, Savannah and Tallahassee are getting their first freeze right now too? How is it colder in Tallahassee (28) than it is here?! Doesn't the cold air have to pass over us before it gets down to them? Also I saw it mentioned yesterday that over the last 25 years the average date of first freeze has moved 9 days later.....from 11/11 to 11/20
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What's causing JFK to be warmer than NYC, is it because of Jamaica Bay (although the wind trajectory isn't coming off the bay?) This isn't a radiational cooling night, with the wind, and JFK is usually colder when there is good radiational cooling. Is this why LGA typically has the latest freeze? It seems like its lows are always higher than the rest of the region, no matter the time of the year and no matter the wind direction Weird thing about JFK is with offshore flow during the summer they are usually just as hot as EWR is and hotter than either NYC or LGA, I've always wondered of the buildings to the north and west of JFK actually create a downslope effect lol. I noticed that happens in the winter too, but it's less noticeable because NW winds are cold winds in the winter, but JFK still manages to be milder than the other official locations. It's usually a 2-3 degree difference.
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Does November snowfall get included with this lol
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yeah but I dont think most are buying that lol From the 80s I remember a lot of storms that were like this, they had the potential to deliver 6+ inches of snow and we only got 1-3 inches
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31 here
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let's see if LGA gets to freezing or not. That place has the fakest temps in the entire country, I can't believe anyone would use their data
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it's supposed to turn warmer after December 2nd though?
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wait it says snow during the day on Sunday-- snow at night sucks can't really see it unless you're looking into the lights
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
LibertyBell replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
they'll basically suffocate under the weight of their own population and pollution like is happening in India right now -
we had some weird stalling clippers in the early 90s lol, I remember the 36 hour snowstorm that dropped like 8 inches
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weird I dont remember that, I thought our seasonal total was 10.6"? I know JFK got more than that because the November storm was heavier there and they were closer to some of the southern scrapers that hit us in December
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Prediction of the first snowfall for the NYC area.
LibertyBell replied to MJO812's topic in New York City Metro
I might have confused those lol....I think it was the January 1987 snowfall I was thinking about that I remember the measurement from but juxtaposed that with the December 1984 snowfall lol. Uncle, do you have JFK snowfall totals from both those storms (December 1984 and January 1987) and the dates they occurred on? There's also a LGA 7 incher in there somewhere which I remember because we had just moved to a new house and the door got stuck when I got home from school and I couldn't get inside....the snow started around 3 in the afternoon and got heavier by 6 and snowed until the next morning. I don't remember the totals from the city or JFK for that one but I remember LGA got 7"