LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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meanwhile the sun is out here lol just north of there
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I remember the LIRR was shut down for a week, no commuting into or out of the city. That was the first 20" snowstorm in 13 years and no one knew how to handle it. Also undermeasured, an argument could be made that it was closer to 30" than 20" -
Yes I really wished they'd upgrade the NAM instead, but I guess it will live on in the FV3? The same way that the MRF transitioned to the GFS I suppose?
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Getting it up in my area too, I wonder if this will last most of the day?
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NAM is pretty underrated, especially when it comes to the big ones. It's like that HR hitter that usually strikes out but somehow bring him up in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and he hits HRs lol. Those are truly rare....most strike out HR hitters strike out in the clutch way more than they usually do. The only one I can think of off the top of my head who was the opposite of that is Reggie Jackson. So the NAM is the Reggie Jackson of weather models lol.
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hey let it all go out in a big bang with PD3 !
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wow even that last one is good, but these have low skill beyond 2 weeks correct?
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I love these up in the mountains, you get light accumulating snow all day sometimes.
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Only exception I can think of is JAN 2016 but in that case long duration and high precipitation amounts- 3 inches of liquid- trumped the high winds!
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Wasn't Jan 1996 one of these EE storms? and Jan 2016 was a NAM-GFS storm? Boxing Day was all GFS? Feb 2006 was a GFS-JAP storm? PD2 was Euro-NAM? I'm trying to remember what models did best for all of our 20+ storms....do you think someone could make a table about this and the various indices and ENSO conditions at the time?
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Anafrontal Passage Rain/Snow Threat 1/19/2022-1/20/2022
LibertyBell replied to HVSnowLover's topic in New York City Metro
I think it's more likely that this doesn't happen rather than the follow up storm. -
GIGO as far as data input is concerned, as you get closer to the event the data is better so the models become more accurate.
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how long would this event be? 24 hour snowstorm?
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don't need that much cold anyway, all we need is average cold and that's what it looks like we'll have in the beginning of Feb
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Thanks Don, looks normal to me which is fine. Do you think Walt's ideas of snowfall chances through mid Feb has merit? Do you have the anomaly map for the second week of Feb too?
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this is pretty effing cold even if it is mid Jan-mid Feb any way to isolate Feb from Jan in this map and just do the first two weeks of Feb? when I hear the word "weeklies" I assume that they give week by week anomaly maps
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arctic front snowfalls do seem to be a nowcast thing
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Walt, is that a report of 0.5" at JFK? I didn't see a single snowflake here before the snow showers that happened earlier tonight.
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Yes just heard of 70 mph winds on Fire Island
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It's snowing here on the south shore too, I can barely see it in the street lights but we're definitely getting it.
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Lee Goldberg already has the snow icon up for Saturday. He said that we'll either get a snowstorm or just miss it, but his confidence is high enough for snowstorm .
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You're in a different boat entirely, you're on the east end lol.
