LibertyBell

destroyed Hogs Island (I hope that was the right name?)

Looks like Fred remnants rainfall on Thursday, Don? I saw a map indicating that NYC and Western Long Island could get 1-3 inches of rain?

So if a storm with that track struck here today, even at low tide, it would have caused far more damages and loss than Sandy did.

This must have been a very rare purely tropical system when it hit up here, the tropical fanatics would give up their teeth to witness something like this again. This puts 1938 to shame. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1821_Norfolk_and_Long_Island_hurricane Meteorological history A tropical cyclone was first observed on September 1 off the southeast coast of the United States. Initially, it was believed to be the same storm that struck Guadeloupe on the same day, though subsequent research indicated there were two separate storms.[3] The hurricane tracked by the Bahamas while tracking generally northward, and it attained major hurricane status over the western Atlantic Ocean. As it approached the United States coastline, the hurricane was very intense, with winds estimated at over 135 mph (215 km/h) and potentially as strong as 160 mph (255 km/h), or a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale.[4] Late on September 2, the hurricane made landfall near Wilmington, North Carolina and later turned to the northeast to cross the Pamlico Sound.[5] The hurricane accelerated northeastward, and passed over the Hampton Roads area early on September 3. After crossing the Chesapeake Bay, the cyclone traversed the Delmarva Peninsula near the Atlantic coastline,[5] and at around 1500 UTC the eye passed directly over Cape Henlopen, Delaware; a thirty-minute period of calm was reported. It continued across the Delaware Bay and later passed over Cape May, New Jersey, where a fifteen-minute calm was reported.[6] Modern researchers estimate it was a Category 3 or Category 4 hurricane upon striking New Jersey, one of the few hurricanes to hit the state.[7][8] Moving ashore at very low tide,[2] it paralleled the state's coastline just inland, and after exiting into Lower New York Bay the hurricane made landfall on New York City at around 1930 UTC on September 3; this makes it the only major hurricane to directly hit the city.[1] A minimal hurricane in 1893 also made landfall on what later became part of New York City.[9] One modern researcher estimates the hurricane was moving at a forward speed of 35 mph (55 km/h), and upon moving ashore had a pressure of 965 mbar.[1] The hurricane continued northeastward through New England, and after entering Massachusetts on September 4 its exact path was unknown;[10] one researcher estimated the cyclone tracked northeastward until losing its identity over southeastern Maine,[5] while another assessed the storm as passing far to the west of Maine.[11] Based on the arrangement of effects in New England, meteorologist William C. Redfield deduced that the wind field and center of tropical cyclones are circular; previously the winds were believed to be in a straight line.[11] Impact The continuous cataracts of rain swept impetuously along, darkening the expanse of vision and apparently confounding the heaven, earth and seas in a general chaos The Norfolk Herald[5] In North Carolina, a powerful storm surge flooded large portions of Portsmouth Island; residents estimated the island would have been completely under water had the worst of the storm lasted for two more hours. Strong winds occurred across eastern North Carolina, resulting in at least 76 destroyed houses. Numerous people were killed in Currituck.[6] The strongest winds of the hurricane lasted for about an hour in southeastern Virginia, after which the storm rapidly abated. Several houses were completely destroyed, with many others receiving moderate to severe damage. The winds destroyed most of the roof of the courthouse, and uprooted trees across the region; fallen tree limbs damaged a stone bridge in Norfolk. The hurricane produced a strong storm surge along the Virginia coastline, which reached 10 feet (3 m) at Pungoteague on the Delmarva Peninsula. The storm surge, which reached several hundred yards inland, destroyed two bridges and flooded many warehouses along the Elizabeth River. Rough waves grounded the USS Guerriere and the USS Congress, and also destroyed several schooners and brigs. Along the eastern shore, the storm surge flooded barrier islands along the Atlantic coastline, causing severe crop damage and downing many trees. Several houses were destroyed, and at Pungoteague the impact of the hurricane was described as "unexampled destruction"; five people drowned in Chincoteague. Considered one of the most violent hurricanes on record in the Mid-Atlantic, the hurricane caused $200,000 in damage in Virginia (1821 USD, $3.1 million 2007 USD).[5] Gale-force winds affected the Delmarva Peninsula; on Poplar Island in Talbot County, Maryland, winds peaked at 1600 UTC on September 3.[6] The strongest winds were confined to the Atlantic coastline, with outer rainbands producing heavy rainfall in Washington, D.C. and Baltimore.[12] Fierce winds were observed in Cape Henlopen, Delaware, with the strongest gales occurring after the eye passed over the area.[6] Upon making landfall on Cape May, New Jersey, the cyclone produced a 5-foot (1.5 m) storm surge on the Delaware Bay side of the city.[12] Lasting for several hours, the hurricane-force winds were described as "[blowing] with great violence",[6] causing widespread devastation across the region.[12] Wind gusts in Cape May County reached over 110 mph (180 km/h), and around 130 mph (210 km/h) in Atlantic County.[13] In Little Egg Harbor, the hurricane damaged to the port. Strong winds reached as far inland as Philadelphia, where winds of over 40 mph (65 km/h) downed trees and chimneys; in the city, precipitation accrued to 3.92 inches (99.6 mm). Further to the north, the hurricane destroyed a windmill at Bergen Point, New Jersey.[12] Though the hurricane struck at low tide, it produced a storm surge of over 29 feet (9 m) along several portions of the New Jersey coastline, causing significant overwash.[2] The hurricane produced a storm surge of 13 feet (4 m) in only one hour at Battery Park, a record only broken 191 years later by Hurricane Sandy. Manhattan Island was completely flooded to Canal Street; one hurricane researcher remarked that the storm surge flooding would have been much worse, had the hurricane not struck at low tide.[14] However, few deaths were reported in the city, since the flooding affected neighborhoods much less populated than today.[15] The hurricane brought light rainfall as it passed New York City, though strong winds left severe damage across the city. High tides occurred along the Hudson River. Strong waves and winds blew many ships ashore along Long Island. One ship sank, killing 17 people. Along Long Island, the winds destroyed several buildings and left crops destroyed.[12] In New England, the hurricane produced widespread gale-force winds, with damage greatest in Connecticut.[10] The Black Rock Harbor Light in Black Rock, Connecticut, was destroyed on September 21.[12][16] Elsewhere in the state, the winds damaged or destroyed churches, houses and small buildings. Moderate crop damage to fruit was reported as well. Strong winds extended into eastern Massachusetts, though little damage was reported in the Boston area.[10] Hurricane-force winds reached as far north as Maine.[13] Historical context The Swiss Re insurance company estimates that a hurricane with the exact track of the 1821 storm would cause $107 billion in direct property damage in 2014. Damage would reach over $1 billion in Atlantic and Ocean counties in New Jersey and New Haven, and Hartford counties in Connecticut. Damage would reach over $2 billion in Nassau and Suffolk counties on Long Island, as well as Fairfield County, Connecticut. Indirect losses, including lost tax revenue and lower real estate, would reach nearly $250 billion nationwide for a similar storm. The damage would be far greater than what occurred during Hurricane Sandy in 2012,[13] which caused $65 billion in damage in the country when it struck New Jersey.[17]

I wouldn't be surprised, it had a 100 mile wide eye when it crossed Long Island and NYC on the fringes of that would've been in the eyewall for an extended amount of time (depending on forward speed of course.) When was the last time a Cat 4 or higher hit NC or further to the north?

So that might be the ideal scenario for maximum destruction (if that is what one wants?) The only piece missing was timing it with high tide?

Wow so 1821 Hurricane was even bigger than 1693 which was thought to be a borderline Cat 4? That small diameter of 40 km mentioned in that piece seems to indicate it was a pure tropical system at our latitude, is that why it maintained its strength on that track?

With the coastal hugger/slightly inland track 1821 had how on earth was it a Cat 4 at Cape May and a Cat 3 when it made it up to NYC? That was further west than Irene's track- how did it stay so strong?

what about for western Long Island? was Sandy worse than 1821, 1893 or any of the others for us too?

odd that 1893 and 1938 are rearrangements of the same number lol what do you think causes these cyclic shifts?

the dry heat was a real blessing

another thing is the rarity of having anything higher than a Cat 3 north of NC. When was the last time anything more than a Cat 3 made landfall in NC or points north?

Would you say that this new track actually has more impact on us than the old one did? I don't recall the kind of damage we've seen in Sandy happen in our region from any of the previous storms I've witnessed (Gloria and Bob.) Even that storm we had last August (I forgot its name) had winds stronger than I ever saw in either Gloria or Bob. The rainfall is less but the winds have been higher.

It will be interesting to see if we get up to the projected numbers (15+ TS, 10+ H, 5+ MH) and if this is more of a Gulf season, a Florida season or an East coast season. Do you have any thoughts on that, Chris?

I understand but it's slowed down considerably from earlier in the season and we're now well behind where we were last year. It looks like the average track this year will also be to our south, as the dominant track has been towards Florida and the GOM? The other thing I noticed is a lot of these systems developing have been weak. Minimal TS.

I prefer hot chocolate in the winter and orange juice in the summer

Australia! Enough said.

Heat is over for now. Next bout of heat begins Aug 20?

1990 is an interesting year to pick because I notice that's when we started having record heat overcome record cold outcomes around here.

It's also about the amount of natural resources this immense population uses up and how quickly it uses them up. According to the information I posted we actually need 1.7 earths right now for the population we have just to keep the resource debt balanced. And it's been getting worse since the early 70s.

https://twitter.com/i/events/1426902907392335872 This is horrendous. So these soldiers sacrificed themselves to save 100 people living in a town in Algeria that was burned down in wildfires. Then a mob of people falsely accused and angrily attacked an artist of setting the fires, when he had only traveled there to help the victims. He was killed by the angry mob. No good deed goes unpunished!

I wonder if tropical activity will be much more limited then

95 is meh, 100 and very dry air is what you want, it's wonderful to run in. I get a natural high when it hits 100, it's like now I'll remember this summer forever.

dry heat is awesome, nothing as therapeutic as 100 degrees and low humidity, it gives you a natural high.

wow 1996 and this summer are a close match around here, except it was a little cooler then but just as humid