LibertyBell

But couldn't that just be a random thing? I remember several la ninas that barely made it to 3" in December and then were awful in January and then we had one big snowstorm in February to get most of our seasonal snowfall. 05-06 comes to mind immediately. By the way in that specific case that rule doesn't apply to JFK because JFK didn't get anywhere near 3" in December and they still got to average or slightly above average snowfall for the season thanks to the February snowstorm. I'm trying to make a point that we can't simply use ENSO as our only method for making forecasts....other forces are at play.

a lot of people I've talked to aren't fazed by the mild December. Isn't this how December always is now? Is what I'm getting Then they go on to say that winter really begins in January, really January 20th (since we've gotten a lot of big snowstorms around that time.)

well that would be a good thing, if we had the warmest anomalies to our north I'd be a lot more concerned about the subpatterns, isn't that what happened in 2001-02? We couldn't capitalize on the change because we went from a cutter pattern to a suppressed pattern

because this season will be like 2001-02?

Doesnt that follow the general rule that 8 weeks is the maximum length a given pattern can last?

that's right, plenty of arguments on Twitter it would be right at home there. In the larger scheme of things it doesn't even actually matter, no one can control the weather (yet) so it's not worth arguing about. Rainman is right about la ninas after el ninos being the best possible combo, it's obvious from the historical record.

I want to see if we're getting a February pattern now what we will get when it actually is February. Do you subscribe to the idea that patterns only last a maximum of 8 weeks? I do, I've looked at different historic patterns over the years and it's very rare that anything lasts longer than that, but the key is to score when the pattern changes. The pattern did change in 01-02 in January for example, but we didn't score, the Carolinas did.

they don't even go to the same libraries or the same bookstores and the ones they do go to, contain entirely different books

Why are these things so rare now? I remember so many oddballs from the 80s and early 90s like the norlun you mentioned as well as early 90s stalling clippers that dropped snow for 30 hours....why do these not happen anymore?

Yes thats when wavelengths shorten and you can realistically have troughs on both coasts. This happened in the 50s too and has been happening as of late (along with more east coast TC landfalls just like we had back then.) But the point which still holds is if March is your snowiest month then you haven't had a very good snowfall season. We can still be above average with snowfall but definitely not blockbuster. Which is fine, I think most would settle for 30" or even slightly less than that. Anything more would be a bonus, not impossible but not very likely (1955-56 is an example of that as is 2017-18.)

It seems though if we could just nail that December snowfall forecast (the 3" marker you mentioned) we could at least make a pretty safe bet on whether the winter will be plus or minus snowfall wise.....let's for the sake of simplicity say average NYC snowfall is 30".....do you think it's a safe bet if we just use that one data point and project snowfall for NYC for an entire season just based on December we could say IF snowfall at NYC in December is less than 3" seasonal snowfall will be less than 30" IF snowfall at NYC in December is more than 3" seasonal snowfall will be more than 30"? Maybe we could make the forecast around Thanksgiving which would maximize its accuracy and come up with a list of analogs around that time?

74?! and in your house? don't you control that temperature? did you mean 74 in your house or 64 outside your house lol

but those two years made it amazing, way better than either the 70s or the 80s. I would take the 90s every time if we could get a 93-94 and 95-96 every decade.

dude there's so much good music to be had on there and this is what you've been watching on a Saturday night?

absolutely, for December at least regardless of anything else forecasting above average December temperatures will get it right 90% of the time. Here's a bigger challenge....can we change how we do analog forecasting to make it more fruitful? How about we select analogs based on snowfall patterns, not monthly average temps. It's easy to forecast above normal average temps nowadays, but there is a disconnect between that and what most winter weather fans care about which is snowfall. Is there any way to do winter analogs independent of average monthly temperatures and strictly based on snowfall? It seems random at first glance, but there are definitely some patterns to be had, like the one which you mentioned where >3" of December snowfall (regardless of monthly avg temp) results in an above avg snowfall season. It might be worthwhile to come up with analogs based on snowfall patterns going forward as opposed to temps.....what do you think, Chris?

also people around here really don't care about cold, they care about snow, regardless of average monthly temps...so based on that we should do analog forecasting based on snowfall patterns not average temps. 1976-77 was a mediocre winter for snowfall. Wouldn't want to ever see that kind of winter ever again

you're forgetting 2010-11 which I also referenced earlier which is exactly why enso only controls 20% of our weather. 2010-11 was a strong la nina and we got how much cold and snow that winter? 5 FEET! Atlantic side blocking is way more important than anything else. Analogs like 1916-17 worked out well for 2010-11.

fyi this means rolling this pattern forward we may have an entirely different one come February and March if not January. Do you remember the old axiom that's proven true time and again (with 06-07 being a great example) that even the most stable of patterns can only last for a total of 8 weeks at most? The great Chuck called that huge turnaround that winter.

Yall need to quit being obsessed with ninas and ninos, remember they only cover 20% of the weather here. It's not like we're on the west coast.

yep no snow days and no double digit snowstorms between those years

how disappointing, I figured the warmth of the airmass would overcome the coolness of the ocean since the ocean isn't very cool this year.

Don what was the high at JFK? I don't see it listed here, thanks!

there were way less snowstorms back then....think about how few double digit snowstorms we had.....two in 1978 and that was it for the 70s and two in the 80s and that was it for that decade.

you need shorter wavelengths like we get in March, which is when you can have troughs on both coasts. you can still get moderate sized snowstorms in a -PNA here by then Speaking of which does anyone (Don, Uncle?) have a list of the largest snowstorms we've had in the most extreme -PNA and which month they happened in? That would be very useful.

the plastics are inside us too-- microplastics have been found in our urine and blood and there's mounting evidence that they are toxic. Logically we always knew they would be, it just took some time for the evidence to come in. Also pesticides like chlorpyrifos, which damages brains of children. It's banned in NY, CA, HI but not in other states yet.