LibertyBell

It's actually exciting in a sense because it's much more unpredictable. I hope we have a few snowy winters in there too along with hot dry summers.

Hopefully not. January shouldn't have 31 days anyway so that's really "fake January" But I see the cold holding off until Tuesday night so actually February 1st.

Even if snowfall ends, the world won't end. Also, even if humanity ends, the world won't end. To be honest, the world would probably be far better off without humanity.

It's not that simple though. You can still see renegade snowstorms anywhere (even the deep south) while still getting below average snowfall winters everywhere...as a matter of fact some of our worst winters had snowfall in that area like 1972-73, 2001-02, etc. A snowfall track down there is actually more common than it is here in certain patterns. The 80s were MUCH worse than the 90s trust me.

There is no such thing as "average" the climate has and will always be a moving target.

We're also going to see more and more winters which have one snowfall defining the majority of the snowfall season. This usually only happened in strong el ninos, but we see it more in other enso winters too (like 2005-06). Milder with one dominant snowfall will probably comprise at least one third of our snowfall seasons going forward. It already feels like the south shore of Long Island has become like Norfolk and Virginia Beach.

Yes that sucks as I love hot dry weather vs very warm humid weather. I think humanity won't stand by and we'll probably have some climate engineering projects underway in the next few decades to try to fix some of these issues with much warmer waters and deviating ocean currents, etc. Another much serious issue that hasn't been mentioned much is the horrible severe weather season in the south which now seems to be year round. The severe weather season has actually shifted from Oklahoma and Texas to Dixie Alley where tornadoes are much more frequent now and a year round severe weather season.

Cold is from Wednesday to Friday with no freezing or below lows until February 1st. I actually think those temps are somewhat underdone, we'll probably see three straight 50+ temps (this weekend and Monday.)

Maybe that's why the magnetic pole is in the process of flipping?

Yes the best la ninas are the ones that come after el ninos. I wouldn't be hoping for a weak el nino-- those behave like neutrals at our latitude, if you want an el nino hope for a high moderate or a strong one. weak el ninos are better for new england (moreso now). People point to 1977-78 but that was a very special case of a second year weak el nino and so behaved much more like a moderate el nino.

it depends, there have been some super cold la ninas in the past, some of our snowiest winters were la ninas I wouldn't be hoping for a weak el nino-- those behave like neutrals at our latitude, if you want an el nino hope for a high moderate or a strong one. weak el ninos are better for new england (moreso now).

it needs to be on the level of 02-03 or 09-10, weak el ninos wont do it for us anymore

average means nothing really. What you're likely to get in the typical decade moving forward is something like this: 2/10 winters with 40"+ snowfall 5/10 winters with under 20"+ snowfall 3/10 winters with snowfall between 20-40 inches

This is also responsible for moving the Bermuda High northward blunting our high temperatures in the summer

Didn't Long Island see an even higher peak, Chris?

ufos...or uaps....

Fascinating-- I wonder how much snow truly fell in the March 1888 blizzard? And a few of our other great snowstorms..... December 1947.....(previous record holder) February 1978 April 1982 February 1983 January 1996

It's crazy how many of these are 1800s winters. How do we expand the dataset to include years prior to 1870? There has to be a way to access average temperatures going back to the early 1800s and even before?

Right and note how much colder 1918 was.....the only recent cold la ninas I remember all occurred after el ninos, like 1995-96 and 2010-11. Also note that 1916-17 and 1917-18 were back to back 50"+ snowfall winters, something that did not get repeated until 2013-14 and 2014-15.

Don I think we'll get 3 50+ degree days in a row-- Saturday, Sunday and Monday and will likely edge out 1932 for the warmest January on record. I'm encouraged seeing the cold being delayed too to Feb 1, we should not see another freezing or below low in January and should set that new record too, at 3, edging out 1932 once again.

Northern stream should be doing its job and bringing in cold air while the southern stream brings in the moisture. That's how it normally works, and there is nothing normal about this pattern.

Pattern recognition is amazing and we love all different kinds of it, doesn't need to be mathematical. There are other kinds of patterns too.

North America is a weak ass "continent" Asia is much larger therefore can much better contain cold air. Actually it's a supercontinent because Europe and Asia are part of one large landmass (so is Africa actually.)

But you just know all the denialists will point to no human made climate change because of that January 1932 record, that's why it needs to be taken down.

2023 pulls ahead of 1932!