LibertyBell

I thought you loved our 2010 summer, that was the most active this board has ever been during the summer, there is nothing interesting about a cool rainy summer.

woah staring directly at the sun is dangerous without using a solar filter. I'm a bit disappointed that there was no big sulfur release as that also makes our eclipses darker and makes them stand out more. I don't remember anything after Pinatubo but I vividly remember the eclipse after El Chichon and it was starkly different from the eclipse that preceded it. That was one of those years where we got two total lunar eclipses, in 1982, and the July 1982 eclipse (the first one I ever saw and that was with my dad at 3:30 am in Brooklyn), the moon was the brightest shade of orange I've ever seen, really an amazing sight. Then we had another one just before New Years in December 1982 (saw that from our new house on Long Island, around 5 AM) that was so black, it was blacker than the night sky-- the moon was darker than the light pollution and looked like a giant black hole in the sky! I imagined that's what it would look like to live near a real black hole lol. Never saw anything like that ever again and I still remember it 41 years later. I was in 4th grade when I saw that eclipse.

I would include those too-- NYC had either 19.7 or 19.9 in PD2 (what an annoying total lol), got to round that to 20"...especially since JFK had 26" in that storm!

Thanks Chris, some of those from the late 50s and 60s are strongly connected to very snow winters, but the ones from the 70s, 80s and late 90s are not lol. I wonder what changed? also-- are these becoming less frequent? I see there has been one every year or every other year up through the 2000s, but not so in the last 10 years.

wow that 1985 arctic cold shot was the coldest I've ever experienced.....but there really wasn't much snow associated with it, just that big cold shot around Inauguration Day and then it went back to above normal in February (like so many of those 80s winters-- January arctic cold-- and dry followed by February mild and rainy.)

Is there a place for data where SSW are ranked or rated like la ninas and el ninos are-- that is, weak, moderate, strong, super? I would love to see that data as well as the date on which they occurred. Have we ever had a major SSW early in the season that influenced the entire winter (say, in November?) What you said about warmth going to cold gives a good explanation why many of our best winters had a mild November followed by a snowy winter. I noted a 7 for 7 outcome between 1955-56 and 1993-94 for winters with over 40 inches of snow and mild Novembers in NYC.

Possibly, 31-32 so it'll be close. I think NYC law states that the heat must be on when overnight temps are below 40 (set to 65 I think).

How do you not have your heat on-- I keep it on until the temps are in the 80s.

But what if it's not super but instead merely strong, like 1957-58....that would be a good outcome. 2002-03 which was borderline strong would also be a good outcome. 2009-10 was, I believe, between those two Don, what causes the spring prediction barrier?

aren't volcanoes supposed to block sunlight and cool the temperature, not increase it?

Perhaps we could round up 19.5 to 20 inches though

Yes, I remember some theories on why Baltimore was so far ahead back then and why they were more favorable for 20" HECS than the other cities (especially moreso than NYC and Boston, who are both significantly northeast of them.)

No there's multiple golf courses in this area, yes there's only one in Oceanside, but there's another one next town over, in East Rockaway. https://longislandgolf.com/bay park golf course.html the one in Oceanside https://www.thegolfclubatmiddlebay.com another one lol (jk that's Oceanside, CA lol ;-) https://playoceansidegolf.com I'm halfway between the (first) two, it's a 15 min drive going from one to the other.

Hey Chris, I've always been interested in the number of 20 inch snowstorms each city on the east coast has had-- has Boston had the most or Baltimore? I think it's one or the other. Also doesn't JFK, LGA or EWR or all of them have more 20 inch snowstorms than NYC does? I know that February 1961 and February 1969 were both at or above 20" at JFK. February 1983 was also at or over 20" at the airports. Maybe NYC edges them out because of their longer period of record but I remember several snowstorms where the airports hit 20" and the Park did not. Offhand here are the ones I remember for JFK..... Feb 1961, Feb 1969, Feb 1983, Jan 1996, Feb 2003, Jan 2016

if it doesn't snow cold serves ZERO purpose except increasing heating bills. I will say I don't mind cool weather as long as it's bright and sunny and dry.....that's perfectly fine

I dont see the connection between above normal precip and heat, usually it's the opposite.

I just saw a forecast from the CPC on ABC7 that showed the first week of April being much above normal (well, the period from April 5-11). Looks like trough west coast ridge east coast, and a big ridge at that.

I suspect that's the case with many of us, since the definition of the spectrum was widened, I believe it may comprise a sizeable minority of people.

I always knew you were a surfing dude! You give off that vibe. I know a lot of them and surfing people are THE BEST people! East coast, west coast, Hawaii, doesn't matter.

Looks like Norway will be 100% ev by 2030 too

how did you guys do in 2012-13?

Chicago police threatening to go on strike unless Vallas wins is proof of that...FBI did the same thing when Clinton wanted to give clemency to Peltier, who is -still- unjustly imprisoned (going on 46 years now)

Yes they function the best.

that may portend to some good fortune, I wouldn't mind something simular to 2012-13 for neutral or 2002-03 for el nino or a mix of those two for that matter. I liked the preceding summers too. I know you don't do summer forecasts, but would you say a hot/dry summer is more likely, along the lines of either 2012 or 2002, Ray?