LibertyBell

I think people are more unsettled about this season in particular (as I wrote in the other post) because it was cold all three winter months and it still didn't snow.

I think people have an uneasy feeling, if we can't crack 20 inches of snowfall with all three DJF below normal temperatures, what will it take? Comparing this winter to 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15 makes people more uneasy than anything. Was this supposed to be a historically snowy winter for us but climate change took it away from us? For the record I don't agree with that since we have found even colder winters with less snow from a supposedly snowy decade in the 60s, but it's still unsettling. *another factor is that the 1960s were a very dry decade, so maybe we are returning to that? But people said that cold and dry were extinct so....

first we worry about that asteroid in 2032, who knows maybe that will come close enough to neutralize the Pacific Jet?

west pac heatwaves near Japan and Indonesia

look up 1967-68 it's an interesting analog. There were some cold not snowy winters in the 60s in a predominantly -PNA along with the ones that were snowy. 1962-63 and 1967-68 were similar to this winter. In both cases the following winter was a snowy el nino winter, so let's see if we get an el nino next winter.

a second storm around the 28th?

it's especially weird because as a la nina after an el nino we should have had a strong juiced STJ and lots of snow 95-96 and 10-11 should have been strong analogs this winter

when will New York get its turn?

still think he could have jumped out of a window. I've done it before, it doesn't hurt.

how many hours of snow before the changeover? from what I looked at it will snow from noon to 8 pm before it changes over.

somehow this area is less snowy than Montauk which sticks out into the ocean and begs to changeover first.

Looks like the snow created its own hill.....

you mean the upside down model? does it have 81-21 inches for us too? or 42-21 inches?

00z models are famous for being the first to catch changes because they get new upper air data and they have the highest verification scores. In 1993-94 our storms always trended snowier/icier with the night time runs and they ended up being correct.

how many hours would this storm last as per the GFS? it looks like a 24+ hour storm based on the maps?

it should be named BUCKLEUP

Better six days out than ten days out. We just need one more day. When it gets to five days out, it becomes a serious threat.

it's a triple phaser

buckle up buttercup?

Great so Delaware would have even more than us since they don't get anything for Saturday. Isnt there a way to run the model just for next week instead of including every storm between now and then?

January 2016 was bigger than any I've ever seen, the most widespread 30 plus inch amounts across the most densely populated regions.

also March 2001 and January 2015 lol

Indeed, but as long as the mixing just stays way out east or south of us, we'll be fine. In storms like this JFK jackpots even if there is a slight bit of mixing (although don't expect the mixing to get back here)-- see February 1961. Higher qpf > trumps any slight mixing issues.

the amounts are fairly even across the board south to north, which is a pretty good sign-- there are 8 inch amounts on it both southwest of us and northeast of us.

Thanks Walt, I'm very worried about the winds Sunday night and into Monday too, looks like Wind Warning criteria winds might be on tap. They're bad enough tonight as it is....