LibertyBell

The real story in that dataset is how much colder and snowier la ninas of the past were! wow 1875 was a la nina? Look how snowy April 1875 was in NYC lol, four separate snowstorms including our latest on record on the 25th. 1942-43 was a la nina? It was extremely cold, -6 in February, the last time NYC was colder than -2. I think 1893-94 was also very snowy 1933-34 was a la nina too? That had our coldest temperature on record and historically cold and snowy February. 1995-96 of course speaks for itself. The real news here is not how the weather was in those neutral years but how much colder and snowier la ninas were in the past here!

wow 1875 was a la nina? Look how snowy April 1875 was in NYC lol, four separate snowstorms including our latest on record on the 25th. 1942-43 was a la nina? It was extremely cold, -6 in February, the last time NYC was colder than -2. I think 1893-94 was also very snowy 1933-34 was a la nina too? That had our coldest temperature on record and historically cold and snowy February. 1995-96 of course speaks for itself. The real news here is not how the weather was in those neutral years but how much colder and snowier la ninas were in the past here!

not 1989-90 though?

thats about flooding not winds. a TD could do that too. Any big flooding tropical rainstorm can do that.

the ridge axis building to our west was more common in the 80s and 90s up to 2002 and then again 2010-13 Chris?

It's interesting how long this westerly flow might last, it seems to have some staying power. I wonder if this is a CC response to the warming oceans and the marine heatwaves? As an example, it was 85 here yesterday and only 2 miles away in Long Beach it was 61 lol. The seabreeze front didn't even make it to Sunrise Highway lol. It would be absolutely awesome if it could do this in the summer too (maybe this is an early indicator of the summer ahead, like April 7, 2010 was for the magnificent 2010 summer?)

Chris, I have a question about the middle graph. Is that for the entire summer or just for the hottest month (July). Having an average high temperature of almost 86 seems rather high for JFK for an entire summer.

Yes, right now the neighbor's kids are more of a problem than the wind. I feel like they have a Dennis the Menace kid along with his sister, knocking over tables and food on their little hot wheels lol. The winds have calmed down a bit.

Thanks for this graph, this is exactly what I was looking for Chris! 1983, 2002 and 2010 really stand out! Do you have a similar graph for 95 degree days too?

it's telling that JFK has been warmer vs average even in April vs NYC.

I think we'll start to see a change to more westerly flow this year with a switch to -AMO and back to more of an 80s/90s pattern that we've been seeing wholesale throughout our local climate. More summers like 1980 and 1983 and 1993 and 1999 and 2002 and 2010 vs what we've seen the last few years. Thanks for this graph, this is exactly what I was looking for Chris! 1983, 2002 and 2010 really stand out! Do you have a similar graph for 95 degree days too? Our real heat comes from Sonoran Heat Release from the SW.

big difference between JFK and NYC again

Hopefully no umbrellas being used, they are dangerous in these winds!

sky conditions are good but it's extremely windy here today, I saw trash and trash cans flying down the street lol.

Yes I was going to say lol.... trash cans are flying down the street here

Yes, we've had hotter summers since with many more 90 degree days. The Dust Bowl era had some amazing and historic heat though, there are records from 1936 that still stand to this day, not just city records but state records from across the country. And 1931-32 is still considered one of our warmest winters on record. My top heat summers in chronological order are 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1980, 1983, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002, 2010 (note how many of them are in the 90s lol.)

Chris is that 2010 when JFK spiked up to around 30 90 degree days on that graph? I think it's a little low, it falls just short of 30, when JFK actually had 31 90 degree days in 2010 (and 10 95 degree days)!

Yes this higher average increase is not nearly as interesting as an increase in higher high temperatures would be. It seems as though nature is regulating against higher extreme maximum temperatures via the oceans. Average temperatures and overnight minimums are not as interesting because 1) we're mostly sleeping when these minimums are occurring, and 2) averaging temperatures smooths out the data. I believe we should rank heat by number of 90 degree days (which is how the NWS ranks our hottest summers.) This is probably why NYC's highest temperature ever was recorded in 1936 and for JFK and LGA it's 1966. EWR which is further inland is 2011 (which is also the hottest temperature I've ever experienced here on Long Island.)

Thanks, I'm going to follow his forecasts too, they seem very reasonable. 15-20/10-12/4-6 is what I'd go with too.

Maybe we should just talk about number of hurricanes? I agree with your points. Forget tropical storms, once a storm becomes a hurricane is when it really becomes destructive (minus rainfall impacts which can occur with tropical depressions too.) I would rank seasons by number of hurricanes and ACE, not the number of tropical storms. I mean, 40 mph, come on, we get winds stronger than that a few times every year. I've been in a number of tropical storms and didn't find any of them any worse than a typical noreaster.

No, I just think we have an alarmist attitude building up universally.

He was better than the alarmists calling for 30+ storms. I said this even before the season started last year, predicting numbers that high is STUPID and will make people not take you seriously. If you want to predict 20+ fine, but don't make predictions that go into uncharted territory.

I believe we're switching to a -AMO and I doubt we see the extreme level of activity that we saw in 2005 and 2020 for a long long time. A very hot and dry summer is MUCH more likely than a crazy hyperactive tropical season.

some of those 30 *storms* weren't actually storms.... they were subtropical. These numbers are getting overinflated because what would never be considered storms back in the 60s-80s are named as such now. In realistic terms, I don't believe it's even possible to have 30 named TC here. We need a much stricter definition of what constitutes a TC.

30+ is stupid, no one should ever make a call like that. It's like calling for 100 inches of snow in NYC. It's just -NOT- ever going to happen.