psv88

Point and click has me at 17 inches in suffolk, i think that's way too high...my best guess for here is 9-10" of snow/ice. Upton is being very aggressive. They must be banking on the early transfer and wrap around.

True, marine forecasts are tricky. I rely on the PredictWind app and largely follow HRRR for same day marine winds. I dont think Upton spends alot of time and energy fine tuning the wind forecast for the western LI Sound.

Boxing day was not 100% snow. I even mixed briefly in western nassau where i was living at the time.

You mean when the GFS was the only model showing any snow for last weekend, the EURO was way offshore, and we all got snow?

*48

If you follow the new england forum they will disagree. It has not been a stellar season at all, including NNE. Only the upslope areas have really done well. Everyone else is average. Also, good luck basing your forecast on the Icon.

Its' all about trends now...we are aware of the mixing gradient

49 today, forecast was 44

People always bash the NWS but in my view they often do a stellar job, at least for out here. Many times they absolutely nail a forecast which is hard to do. Yes, some forecasts are blown, or maybe only the low end of a warning verifies, but overall i think Upton does a terrific job.

Not worried about the RGEM. NAM got cooler, as did the Euro and Ukie. We are locked in for 6-12" areawide.

You will

Yes, that seems aggressive to me. I wouldnt go above 10-11" for the beaches right now. Maybe when get more clarity on the secondary...

My Holly is storm total map, Upton is until 7 pm Sunday...apples and oranges

FWIW the Icon and GFS dont get above 25, and the Ukie also doesnt get above 30. Nice cold storm!

Just dug into the 12z Euro surface temps v 0z...temps from my area and most of long island came down about 1-2 degrees. PredictWind app is pretty cool for this. So the models are clearly picking up on the low level code. Other than the south fork, i dont see any plain rain. My area never gets above 30, and even the beaches of nassau and western suffolk never get above 32.

i really think we have narrowed down close to a final solution. The only real loose ends are the development of the secondary low and its location to the coast. Thats the difference between 9 inches and 12" + for many, more so than mixing

i think this system is colder. Half the storm will be in the teens

6-12 is a great call in my view. In my view this is much simpler call than we are making it. 6-12”, more or less depending on mixing. Temps below freezing throughout

The actual surface temps seem colder. In my opinion it was a trend in the right direction

Euro looks colder to me for the coast

Correct, its about trends. The north ticks have stopped for now. I would count on some sleet in the NYC metro areas and SW/S/SE. But rain is also off the table.

Its not about the warm layers, its where the primary dies out. That impacts the warm layers more than anything. The track of the surface and mid level lows. The warmer models have a primary further north than the GFS. I still say there is compromise in between. What we do know is that the primary is not tracking to Ottawa as some models showed and we are not getting a southern slider. We can now be 100% confident in a 6" snowfall for the entire area. NW areas can be confident in 12". Closer to the coast my forecast would be 8-12" for now of snow/sleet. Its going to be fun.

I have been saying this for days. We are all getting snow. There are things can go wrong in every storm. Here, we are locked to see a major winter storm. We can chat about model output, but repeating that you are "Concerned" its not necessary. Ruins the vibe.

What's funny is that if the GFS was bad people would committing suicide. Its a perfect solution and people say "Well it sucks." Gotta love weenie mentality!

Even the Icon never got above 30 degrees out here in inland western Suffolk. North of the southern state parkway stays below freezing on even the warmest models. Extreme south shore of the island spikes to 34 for a few hours early Monday morning before temps crash again. This is on the warmest model.