psv88

I definitely think most of the island mixes for 2-3 hours before a flip back. Still a full day for ticks either way, but I would bank on some sleet

Yep. This storm should get us near average on the year, to somewhere between 25-30", as I am at 18" now. If we cash in later in the week and early next month, we will be on our way to our first above average season in years, 40" might be doable.

Yea i don't think anyone on long island should be expecting 14" of snow...8-12" total snow and sleet is a good forecast, and its in our WSW. This will be a MECS with major impacts, largely because it will be so cold. But, this is not a record setting storm by any means. Just a major, high impact storm to enjoy on a Sunday. That is what this has always been. Setting your expectations higher is not realistic.

No. It’s a great run for us. Still 12+ and cold. It’s coming.

Models look great! Back to work

NAM, which the naysayers cling to for mid level warming, popped the secondary earlier and further SE. this ticked the mixing south. Great run of the NAM. the RGEM was less snowy due to a weird QPF min around the city. The ICON has been wildly inconsistent. so far I like the 12z suite

Models look great! Nice to see icon and RGEM snowier

It did budge. It went north but got wetter so the amounts stayed the same. But it definitely budged

Yea these models are getting much much wetter. We are about to get smacked real good. Better get that ice melt!

We got a raging blizzard 4 years ago. Are you an infant?

Nice!

One guess...

Usually you take a blend. It worked out last weekend. There is a reason the NWS heavily leans on the NBM (national blend of models). The NBM does not contain the ICON, but it does contain the UKIE and Euro. Here, the synoptic pattern with respect to the primary matters alot with respect to the mid-levels, so the GFS has more weight than normal when it comes to mid level warming, etc. When track is the same, follow the Euro/Mesos for thermals. When the synoptics differ, then GFS gets more weight than usual in my book. Its picking up on the earlier transfer and other models have been trending that way as well. Once the models agree more on the development of the secondary, the GFS thermals go out the window and we lean on the mesos.

My gut is telling me that we get 10" out here plus a bunch of sleet. All depends on the secondary. If it pops early and south like the GFS has it, we will get 18"...

Agreed.

we arent getting screwed...major storm coming for all.

Point and click has me at 17 inches in suffolk, i think that's way too high...my best guess for here is 9-10" of snow/ice. Upton is being very aggressive. They must be banking on the early transfer and wrap around.

True, marine forecasts are tricky. I rely on the PredictWind app and largely follow HRRR for same day marine winds. I dont think Upton spends alot of time and energy fine tuning the wind forecast for the western LI Sound.

Boxing day was not 100% snow. I even mixed briefly in western nassau where i was living at the time.

You mean when the GFS was the only model showing any snow for last weekend, the EURO was way offshore, and we all got snow?

*48

If you follow the new england forum they will disagree. It has not been a stellar season at all, including NNE. Only the upslope areas have really done well. Everyone else is average. Also, good luck basing your forecast on the Icon.

Its' all about trends now...we are aware of the mixing gradient

49 today, forecast was 44

People always bash the NWS but in my view they often do a stellar job, at least for out here. Many times they absolutely nail a forecast which is hard to do. Yes, some forecasts are blown, or maybe only the low end of a warning verifies, but overall i think Upton does a terrific job.