NJwx85

It shifted West of the previous run for sure.

12z HWRF

12z HWRF is west and slower. Center is in Maryland at 15z Friday instead of SW NJ.

Because it’s tropical. If this was a cold core system it would be on the NW side. Once it moves North it will shift to the North and NW of the track.

Another garbage model lol.

12z HWRF is running now. That will be telling of any East trends.

The only non junk model in the East camp was the 00z Euro.

It should be ventilated by the trough building into the Ohio Valley. Good timing as a day later and it would have kicked it OTS instead.

Why are people using mesoscale models for tropical? I’m surprised the NAM isn’t showing a hurricane. The latest run of the HWRF has landfall in SW NJ 15z Friday with a ton of rain in banding for the area. Agree that it’s a fast mover but PWAT’s approach 3” for about a 6 hour period. System will be juiced and winds are decently strong aloft so any stronger convection could help mix down strong gusts. And since system will be driving up the Gulf Stream, it’s possible that it will be deepening as it approaches.

Speak for yourself. Any further East and West of the city will see minimal impacts.

Crazy rain here. Not much else.

Lightning here, about to get pounded.

It's pretty amazing to see the vertical wind shear here. The clouds at the highest levels are moving Easterly. The mid-levels appear to be nearly calm and the low levels are racing North. For those that don't know I am in Ramsey, NJ FYI.

Crazy wind here just above the surface. Tops of tall trees swaying pretty good. Low level clouds and scud are racing North.

Sky is black here and I can see a shelf cloud forming to my North over Rockland county. Been beating around the bush the last hour and waiting to see if all that activity over Central and Eastern Bergen county drifts Northwest.

Nearly constant thunder here.

The warning was for hail not winds. Maybe you missed the hail core.

Thundering here already

Under the gun here

I can see the tower from the Orange County storm. It’s massive but I couldn’t get a good picture. Hoping that makes it here.

I can see a tower nicely to me Northeast from Rt 17 in Mahwah. I assume based on radar it’s from the storm all the way up by I-84.

I’m right on the SW flank. Really awesome structure for this area.

SVR warned here for quarter sized hail. Storm looks nasty. Great structure to my North.

Remember the good old days when cutoff lows on the East coast didn’t trend hundreds of miles West and it would actually rain for 2 or 3 days straight as modeled three days out?