NJwx85

Not offered on the free products available on Pivotal Weather.

The Euro has the city sitting at 33 degrees and plain rain at 12z Friday. The GFS is 28 degrees at the same hour. Temperatures crash after than panel on all guidance.

It continues to get colder after this panel.

It's about the same as the 00z run. Gets the significant icing down to Southern Bergen County. The target area is North of I-80 and South of I-84.

All of the flow at the mid levels are Southwesterly so not much warmer air to come in off the ocean.

Mesoscale models really starting to hone in now.

And I live in Bardonia and we're all above ground.

Most of the power grid down this way is above ground. I know a lot was said about moving it underground after Sandy but it hasn't happened yet. I think most of NYC is underground which is why those areas are more immune to ice storms but the suburbs are a completely different story.

I think you will see increased wording regarding the ice threat after the Euro comes in, assuming not much changes. They are getting close to the window where they will need to start issuing products.

That's not a bad call up in your area. You will cool faster aloft and will get more sleet than areas farther South. I think you will need to be well South of 84 for this to be significant.

Consensus building.

The threat area really hasn't changed in several days. Truly amazing how locked in most of the guidance has been. 12z GFS is running. First big model of the day.

Similar to what? The NAM is currently the slowest of all the guidance to bring the cold air in at the surface and is weakest.

FWIW

Enough for the entire Hudson Valley to be under an ice storm warning.

NYC and W LI flip over at the very end.

Not much ice for the city on this particular run but definitely gets the colder air farther South faster.

The cold air really presses down through the Hudson Valley this run.

12z RGEM is brining in the cold air at the surface faster than the 06z run. Should increase ZR amounts further South.

The model gets a lot more attention than it deserves. It has scored a few points in recent years but overall it's terribly unreliable. The next run could give us 10" of snow. That's how wild it is.

The 12z runs of the 3k NAM and 12k NAM are both similar.

I love how one run of the long range NAM somehow tops the rest of the guidance. You would think everyone on here was either born yesterday or has a very short memory. The NAM is erratic and unreliable until inside of 36hrs and even then it's susceptible to major run to run shifts.

Watches/Advisories coming potentially The GEFS probability of freezing rain has been increasing with each successive model run for this event, with a 50%-60% chance of freezing rain for KLGA and just over 50% for KISP. The 21Z SREF also had between a 20% to 40% chance of freezing rain for the city and Long Island, which are high probabilities for this model, although the most recent run has backed off on these chances. Finally, the deterministic models generally came in colder with the 00Z runs. If this colder solution continues, more in the way of ice is possible, especially because that could mean the colder air filters in during a period of more moderate precipitation. For now, went with ice accretion of between a tenth and a quarter of an inch for western Long Island, New York City, northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and southwest Connecticut. Elsewhere a few hundredths of an inch to a tenth of an inch is expected. Higher elevations in the Lower Hudson Valley would likely see the highest ice accretion amounts. Additionally, any standing water from rain and snow melt will refreeze during this time frame. While these values do not prompt Winter Storm Watches to be issued (0.50" of ice would be needed), will have to monitor for this potential if it looks like a significant impact to either or both commutes on Friday, as there still remains uncertainty with the exact timing of the transition to the wintry mix. Otherwise, given these ice accretion amounts, Winter Weather Advisories would need to be issued with this afternoon`s forecast package or Thursday morning`s package.