NJwx85

You can see how far off the 06z NAM is

Based on current radar, that band looks like it needs to be shifted 50-100 miles South.

That line is already looking fierce in NW PA.

Storm kinda skipped right over me here. Last week it looked like 3-4 days of rain with several inches. Rained here for about 5 minutes around 5:00 and that was it. Terrible mid range modeling continues.

Thunder and lightning here

Plenty of SBCAPE and shear to go around. Only real missing component for severe is less than great mid-level lapse rates. We shall see if the lift makes it far enough East before we lose instability.

Cleared out with full sunshine and mostly clear skies here.

Upper 80’s in the forecast here for next week. Just in time for met Summer.

It was 85 here on Saturday and my upstairs was 80 degrees. F that.

Starting Thursday it’s supposed to be in the 70’s everyday now. Most days should feature lots of sun out here as well. Might not be pool weather yet but it’s not supposed be that hot in May. Big improvement from the grim look a few days ago. We had the AC on all weekend. Turned it off last night.

Glad we’re not in the bullseye five days out.

Thunderstorms incoming

Pouring snow here for the last ten minutes

Big pattern shift starting next week.

Topped out at 82 here. Superb mid Spring day.

Coming up on the 10th anniversary of my favorite March storm of all time.

lol

Had almost 5” of rain in Mahwah for the 11/2-11/3 storm.

PA tornado outbreak?

"Shaking felt thousands of miles away, devastation from Boston to DC as 8.0 magnitude Earthquake strikes along the Ramapo fault in NJ"

Is @HurricaneJosh still over in that region? If so, might as well hope over to Taiwan for the next one.

He hasn’t posted anything on Twitter or Facebook for roughly seven hours. He said he was about to lose all connectivity and he was still well outside the eyewall. Probably one of his most dangerous chases ever given the remote location and intensity.

DIX destroyed OKX this time around.

It's really annoying that KDIX is down again.

With the clocks going back this weekend we're really going to start dropping into the doldrums of late Autumn. We've been lucky that it's been a relatively dry and mild Autumn so far, however that looks to change, at least somewhat moving ahead. I'm playing golf on Saturday afternoon in an attempt to hold onto the last gasps of outdoor activities. So we're three weeks away from Thanksgiving and about 7 1/2 weeks away from Christmas, and then we start turning the corner as days begin getting longer once again. It will be a slow few weeks in January, especially if the Southeast ridge returns, which I strongly favor in my thinking. After that it's two weeks for pitchers and catchers, the Daytona 500 and away we go as the long awaited first signs of Spring begin to emerge. It's always a great feeling that first day in late March when you can open up the windows and breathe in the fresh air after being cooped up for the previous 14 weeks or so. I love snow as much as anyone, but I have no use for cold. And the older I get, the more and more I hate the Winter. I take solace in knowing that legitimate Winter in these parts is usually no more than a 12 week affair, and hopefully this year it will be even less.