NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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It's not going to matter much for San Juan as long as they stay in the RFQ. For those that have never been there, San Juan has an expansive, highly developed water front. I am not sure how susceptible it is to storm surge, but it doesn't appear to be very protected. This is close to the area where the cruise ships dock.
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The worry with the resorts is from storm surge. The structures themselves can probably handle 140kt winds.
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Many of those areas were impacted by Jose as well.
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Maria is expected to be at worst a very high end Cat 4 near PR. Not sure where you're getting CAT 3 from. A lot of the structures in PR are poorly built, especially once out of the downtown area. Even those buildings are not what you would expect in a typical US city. This hit on PR is particularly personal as it's one of my favorite vacation spots. A nice place called Isla Verde, about 20 miles to the East of San Juan is home to many ocean front resorts.
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If the track of Maria had been on a more South to North track where the center had to pass over the entire width of PR before reaching San Juan that would be a different story. I've been to San Juan twice, it's right on the ocean and fully exposed to a Northwesterly track thanks to the onshore flow.
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Huh? San Juan is located on the Northeast corner of PR, and assuming that the latest guidance is correct, the Northern eyewall should pass right over that region without much prior movement over land. Remember that with the Northwest movement of Maria, San Juan and the rest of the North shore will get pounded by onshore winds rather than the down sloping winds off the South shore. It's close to a worse case scenario for them.
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The eyewall is now in view on the long range KJUA radar. https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes
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For those interested, our very own @HurricaneJosh is in Southeast Puerto Rico for the chase.
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Trough then kicks Maria and what's left to Jose finally OTS
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Like I said, Fujiwara
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Nope, going to see a crazy Fujiwara swing into the East coast this run.
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12z ECMWF takes the center of Maria right over Puerto Rico, terrible run for San Juan as they take the brunt of the Northern eyewall.
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I saw that, but since nobody else posted it yet I thought I was reading it wrong lol.
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I'm thinking Cat 4 by tonight. She's totally bombing out now. And the small core will help the winds ramp up quicker.
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The 12z guidance continues to indicate a track over the next several days just WSW of where Irma tracked. At least Maria is a more compact system, with the hurricane force winds only extending up to 60 miles away from the center, so unless the eyewall itself tracks over the islands, they should fare better. Puerto Rico is a different story with a possible landfall.
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The GFS keeps reloading the trough in the East right through mid June.
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Saturday I would agree is a relatively nice day. Sunday is a completely different ballgame.
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I would still be cautious about Memorial Day weekend. The Euro could be weakening the ULL too fast with not much time to spare.
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It's a beautiful thing. And don't have to worry about waiting to see if a day 10 heat wave verifies.
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LOL GFS OP has another big ULL parked over the East days 8-16.
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Central air works wonders. I will probably have it on Thursday.
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Exactly, strong signal in that time period for a gradual cool down followed by another blocking regime, albeit weaker than this one and another above average rainfall period.
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But it does have a correlation to blocking and both the EPS and GEFS have below average 850mb temps building into the East during this time period.
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NAO and AO are forecasted to plummet again just in time for Memorial Day weekend. Poor Kevin.
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You make it sound like it was an ultra dry run. Boston still gets a lot of rain.
