NJwx85

The trough orientation is neutral on the Canadian and actually does go negative at the last minute. I think it would have ended up better if not for the double barreled low.

I’m not throwing in the towel but I’m being realistic based on what I see, the trends and my experience.

Yeah, but it makes sense. This vort that swings through creates the first low.

It’s still a miss except for LI.

The Canadian is going to end up better.

No, I just showed you the 250mb winds. The trough orientation is wrong.

Early on the Canadian looks better.

You can’t get a storm to turn the corner with a big positively tilted trough, especially when it starts that far South.

There was a bit more precip on the NW side but it was a setup back in the upper levels.

Bye, bye

No chance with upper level winds like this

It’s going to end up a tad worse than 06z. The trough axis is a tick further East.

The GFS is a hot mess, focusing on the SLP near Bermuda as the dominant feature.

What a mess with all of these surface lows.

Not much change on the GFS through 06z Saturday.

Yeah I was out in it as a volunteer firefighter at the time. We were out chasing downed trees and power lines. Then the next night the river flooding started. There was massive runoff in the hills from the big February snowstorms. The only thing that topped it was being out during Sandy. March 2010 is one of my all time favorite storms. The wind and rain were unbelievable. And in hindsight, it was stupid and dangerous for us to be out in both storms. During Sandy a tree narrowly missed our truck and after that we stopped operations until the next day.

BTW, I was wrong. 3/3/10 was a snowstorm. 3/15/10 was the big rain storm that caused 9 deaths.

Are you referring to March 2010? It was also March, not late January. There’s a lot more cold air to work with. The analogs are based on 500mb similarities. It’s just a tool to compare past events to current setups at 500mb. It doesn’t mean a repeat is likely.

You have no idea what you’re talking about and I’ll just leave it at that.

I went from Nothing in Morris County to a blizzard. I ended up with like 24” or so. 50 miles to my West had less than 6”.

The top 5 analogs over the East at 96hrs from CIPS. Some all time greats. 1) 1/23/16 2) 12/26/10 3) 1/8/96 4) 3/3/2010 - Massive rain and wind storm 5) 2/24/89

Yes that would be correct. It went from a miss to a massive hit at like 48hrs out. Don’t quote me on the exact timing but it was Christmas Eve.

I have, 12/26/10, and it happened on 12/24.

The NAM looks like the GFS, that kicker is there.