NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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The 18z GFS is not a huge hit LOL, but it is a tick further North than the 12z run was. It would be enough for a low end warning level storm for most.
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It's funny how I got killed a few hours earlier for saying that the early 12z suite was probably nonsense, and then the Euro came out, and it pretty much confirmed what I suspected. This could be a few inches, especially for Eastern areas, but I don't see how it's much more than that.
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Color me shocked that the Euro isn't on board.
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When we get a run where the SLP tracks inside the benchmark, then I'll get excited. Also, when something shows more than just a glancing blow from the deformation banding which largely remains offshore, even with today's 12z suite so far.
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My past experience tells me otherwise, but let's see where we are at this time on Friday.
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This is probably close to the ceiling with this unless there are a few significant changes.
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I'm not writing this off 5 days out. I just know from experience that this setup favors SNE. Aside from a few runs here and there, most of the snow has been from the initial overrunning/inverted trough, rather than from the coastal itself, which develops too far offshore. Even the 18z GFS from yesterday, which was really tucked in at H5, had most of the precip offshore.
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Just close enough to wave goodbye as it slams Cape Cod. Late developing Miller B's are never good for this area.
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Yeah, and? The 500mb low passes well South and East of the benchmark. There is no mechanism to bring it North. The trough digs too far South.
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I see the 12z GFS is further North. I just think, given this setup at H5 that this will develop/bomb out too far offshore. The overrunning precip to our West will dry up and everything will jump offshore. This favors SNE.
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I was never excited about this threat. To me, it always looked like a late blooming Miller B/Inverted trough which is never good for us.
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The storm on the GFS around 2/11 has some promise. It’s a similar setup to last weekend.
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Anyway, looks like a threat of a few inches next Wednesday.
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The SLP that’s near the NC coast actually gets absorbed by the one further offshore on the GFS.
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Better but still at least two lows
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Back to 12z
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Early on GFS is slightly better.
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I would be more optimistic if I lived out on the island. For those of us in the NW crew, this one is over and I’m fine with it. I had 20” on Sunday and 4 or 5 plowable snowfalls before that. Also my roof is happier.
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#3 is the initial problem, #4 is the final nail in the coffin.
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This has so many issues now. It’s close to beyond fixable. The trough closes off too early and way too far South. You would want it over VA or WV. You have poor wave spacing and you end up with a ton of junk at 500mb which spawns 2 or 3 different surface lows. And then the final nail is that kicker coming into the Northern plains on Saturday.
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So far East it missed everyone except Eastern NC and extreme SE VA.
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It’s still a positive tilted trough and it’s actually further East than 12z.
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I really hate Miller A’s. Feast or famon and more often than not, the latter.
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Sorry, you’re not getting snow back to Eastern PA with a surface low 200 miles South of the benchmark.
