hlcater

SARS-CoV-2(the virus itself) is susceptible to UV light just like all coronaviruses are. So I’m optimistic that once we get to may, this thing will be winding down. Heres a few links that I really like and are extraordinarily useful Fairly in depth and comprehensive synopsis of what this virus actually is: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/ ArcGIS dashboard: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 Graphs and growth curves for certain countries: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Needless to say im disappointed in the amount of media catalyzed hype and panic buying that I’ve seen on twitter and elsewhere. Namely a certain joe rogan podcast with 6M views that was an absolute crime and is the equivalent of a weenie freaking out over a 384hr GFS kuchera map. But I think moving universities online and closing large public gatherings makes sense and is a necessary step to flatten the curve and prevent our medical system from getting overwhelmed like it was in Italy and China.

So... Apparently, its been 47 YEARS since CID last measured 12" of snow. I measured 12" in 2008, but apparently the airport did not. Absolutely astonishing how hard a measly 12" is around here. http://www.midwestweathercenter.com/nstew-blog/2020/2/28/missing-the-big-one-streaks-without-a-big-snow-storm

Looks like we will. +NAO/AO looks to remain through at least the first half of March highly unlike the previous several years where we just couldn't shake -AO/NAO. The lack of an SSW this year also helps.

Can someone inject whatever substance the 00z GFS is on straight into my veins?

Rainer

1337 tornadoes and the first high risk will be on 4/20.

Might squeeze some dixie severe out of that.

Looks like yet another 2010s december for the trash bin. Yippee1

where we can have split flow in April to maximize suffering.

Pivotal weather has greatly diversified the amount of data available with the ECMWF. This is gonna be *really* nice. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcmslp&rh=2019110312&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

I remember that early October 2013 system not by the snow, but by the higher end tornado event that ensued over northeast NE and NW IA. Would be nice to see one of those this fall. EDIT: here’s Simon Brewer and Juston Drake’s account of the event for those so inclined. https://stormgasmcom.wordpress.com/2013/10/23/october-4-2013-tornado-outbreak/

It’s just their climatology. Dry and super cold is what they do best.

the point of my post is that dvorak blows and should only be used if there are literally no better alternatives

Because everyone knows that Dvorak is the best intensity estimation method out there, firmly beating recon aircraft in every metric.

why people continue to feed/interact with SENC is beyond me

What’s most surprising to me is all that water.

I dont think this will intensify much more. Radar from taiwan is indicative of an EWRC/imperfect core. Passed through at 130kts though, so nothing to scoff at.

the thread that never dies

Tomorrow looks decent, but I think wednesday looks likely to grow upscale into an MCS rather quickly.

That 12z euro was TERRIBLE. In fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a worse 10 day run.

Probably. We aren’t at record lows(yet) and still have the rest of may, June and July to go. Shots at 1000 closing fast. Best guess I have right now is 800-900

Guys! The ERTAF is showing some hope in the long range! http://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/

Well the primary jet really likes the northern conus and Canada, so I think sustained periods of AOA 40kts flow over the plains will be hard to come by. Thinking “day-of” events, upslope and boundaries are going to rule the 2nd half of may. However, with sufficient moisture and instability, this can work.

2nd week of may looks to be dominated by a pretty hefty ridge in the west based on both operational models and their ensembles. Not sure how long it’ll be after this trough early week. I’d hedge to say that it’s gonna be quiet for at least 5 days after that.

I wouldn't call next week's setup ideal... it's got problems. Particularly problems with moisture(especially on the euro side of things) and the GFS digs the trough deep enough such that 500mb orientation is mediocre at best. I'm not seeing an outbreak, but I'm seeing perhaps a few events in the plains from this.