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hlcater

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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. hlcater
    yea I was talking on the order of 4-5 hours ago. Seems that its right about peaking like you said.
  2. hlcater
    I think it looks better than earlier. More symmetrical, and cloud tops are slightly cooler, but it did lose some of the banding.
  3. hlcater
    154kts. OH WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT. I, for one, am surprised.
  4. hlcater
  5. hlcater
    Probably the NHC.
  6. hlcater
    Also because the NHC will do that because Lane was an eastern pacific storm. Probably with some collaboration from the CPHC though.
  7. hlcater
    Yea they’re definitely in over their heads here. Central pacific doesn’t deal with many strong cyclones, let alone ones that pose a threat to the islands.
  8. hlcater
    New recon is in the air, but probably won't make it before the 03z advisory. Not that CPHC uses recon... But satellite presentation has gradually improved, perhaps that will convince them to upgrade?
  9. hlcater
    Lots of people throwing up their arms at that call. Ya'll aren't the only ones.
  10. hlcater
    I wish, but they've already stayed past their scheduled time and are probably running low on fuel.
  11. hlcater
    Dropsonde from the northern eyewall. Value closest to surface is 148kts, however it doesn't say surface explicitly, so I'm going to assume its just above and something happened to it before it made splashdown. Normally it'll say (surface) in parenthesis if everything goes right. Even then, the value would almost have to be ~140kts. My guess for the 00z advisory is 140kt/928mb.
  12. hlcater
    If you really look, I can notice a tinge of westerly shear, noted by the ever so slight lopside to the east. Doesn’t seem to really be troubling the hurricane though.
  13. hlcater
    The storm stands no chance if it comes up in behind the big island. The combination of wind disruption and downsloping would almost certainly wreak havoc on the inner core of the storm, making quick work of it no matter how strong it is coming in. This would greatly reduce wind impacts on the other islands. However, there would be some pretty hefty rainfall amounts on the big island if this were the case as all the incoming moisture would be effectively wraught out.
  14. hlcater
    I only got 0.88". Southern Hiawatha easily got 3"+, tons of street flooding on Collins Rd.
  15. hlcater
    Also keeping in mind no one ever predicts a slow, awful winter. It's always gonna be the coldest, snowiest, record shattering gung ho winter of all time in the preceding August. I just keep my sanity and dont really pay attention until November at the earliest
  16. hlcater
    Yes. Subtrops that never go tropical are still named and counted in post-season analysis.
  17. hlcater
    looks like the DTX/SE MI no watch streak is now over
  18. hlcater
    I think hector has serious potential to make it all the way well into the west pac. Some weenie runs even have it making landfall in Asia? Realistically, the only thing I can see weakening it for the next 7 days is dry air. Upper air pattern generally has under 15kts shear through this period. However, there is quite a bit of dry air forecast to be around the system that may intrude from time to time. SSTs are conducive, albeit not for a particularly intense storm, more than enough to survive off of.
  19. hlcater
    Doesn't take much to get in record departure territory in a barotropic environment.
  20. hlcater
    Ow. That’s all I can say.
  21. hlcater
    the thread that never dies
  22. hlcater
    Nice catch! See any more? I was on the storm that tracked from Newton/Monroe/Pella. and got 6. I posted in the lakes/ohio valley thread with my pics. This day will probably end up verifying closer to a 15% than a 2%.
  23. hlcater
    wedge tornado in MT/SD was probably easily capable of EF4+ damage. Violent looking for the majority of its life cycle. As of this post, that storm has produced at least 5 tornadoes and is still going strong.
  24. hlcater
    I forgot what year it is. Nevermind!
  25. hlcater
    Can we just fast forward to 2019? Let’s put this poor excuse for a season out of its misery.
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