hlcater

I am somewhat concerned with the amount of moisture on some models being oversold. There's only a short turnaround between the system on Tuesday and the next one arriving late Thursday. I just don't there's enough separation in between them to seriously entertain the idea of a high-end moisture laden system like the GFS and CMC are showing. The lee cyclogenesis with this system is impressive, however, with some models bottoming out in the mid 980s. So even if the moisture is being overdone, this could still be a significant system in the wind department.

Finally got around to updating my signature lol. I had gotten lazy.

Not liking my position in Iowa City. Looks like the best totals will be highway 20 and north. Which is usual of high end events out here.

Probably better severe prospects as well.

Would be a very significant system for someone though. Lots of cold air to feed on.

You have been the king of this winter.

Some phone pics of the snow in IC today. Very picturesque and I picked up 3” or so.

The entire eastern half of Iowa has snow depths greater than 12". This makes me pretty concerned about river flooding and ice jams if we get a warm cutter or something else where we warm very quickly. Given what models are showing, this is definitely in the cards.

Why not.

Has there ever been an occurrence of 2 SSWs in the same winter season?

I’m gonna make a call of 2.9” in Iowa City. 4.1” in my backyard in Hiawatha.

Maybe do multiple locations as well?

I was talking about that prefrontal axis of precip ahead of it. PW didn't pick up on that CF band at all. You really had to look for it. But a band of convective snow squalls along the cold front makes perfect sense to me.

Oh I see it now, I was using 1km Ptype and it didn't show up. Shows up on composite reflectivity though

That band of precip to the SE of the sfc low isn't along the cold front, it's along something else. Temps at the surface actually warm into the mid 30s behind it with upper 20s ahead of it. I think that feature being something particularly noteworthy is unlikely.

From 5 degrees to 35 and rain back down to 5 degrees, all in 36 hours. Can't rightly believe it. Whatever, I'll go into this arctic intrusion with a literal glacier on the ground. That's fine.

It's 4th down in Iowa City. Sounds oddly familiar....

I have no idea lol. I'm not smart.

Agreed. Stebo mentioned earlier that this shift has a lot to do with more emphasis being placed on the northeast side of the disjointed vort as opposed to the S/SW side of it.

I was 7. Beat that.

What was interesting to me at least is that big hole over NE/KS and E CO. Since that's roughly where the WAA is being drawn from, I figured that it should have an easier time moving the baroclinic zone farther north.

The reason I'm so quick to go with the northern solutions is that this system doesn't necessarily make as much sense to go south as the last one did. With the last system, there were a lot of things like the shearing out behavior and deep snow to the SW that supported a significant shift south, and it made sense. But with this system, it's coming from a different direction, it's much stronger and the snow out NW isn't nearly as deep or widespread. It makes decent sense this storm is doing what it's doing, at least to me. A south shift this time doesn't make nearly as much sense.

Decent accumulations of rain.

While the GFS has been too far north on the previous few systems. I just don't see a way where we don't get rain from this system as IC is further south than the current farthest south deterministic models. Strong WAA, retreating high pressure, strong low tracking north of us. Stars are aligning for a warm system down here. Unless the baroclinic zone jumps south over 100 miles, which I don't see happening, our chances aren't good. Much of MN and WI serve to do well from this system.

Praise be! /s