BGM Blizzard

2 hours ago, tim123 said:

Hey bmg. You got high rez canadian?

Only goes out to 48 so not very useful for a while yet. Apparently it only has output for the northern US too lol.

Yeah not much change from 18z. Little more expansive on the northern edge to the thruway vicinity. Solid hit for everyone still.

Pivotal has maps anyway, looks similar to 18z but maybe not as dry on the northern side at first glance.

Euro looked little more amped but appeared the cold press was also a little faster as well and possibly offset some, but maps aren't loading too well on WB so hard to tell. End result looked like a small shift nw but waiting to see the outputs.

47 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

HIREZ GFS is a solid storm. MESOS picking up on enhancement which I think will really happen for once. 

10:1 non-sleet and simulated radar at 12z Friday (still snowing)

7 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Chasing gfs. Lol. All these models blow chunks. 

Yeah hard to tell what going on. Incoherent shifts between the models. Like Dave said, there going to be some wobbling back and forth and unfortunately even small shifts have huge implications for some or most of us. Hopefully this thing threads the needle and we all get 6+.

18z Euro 10:1, p-type, and last 4 runs of 10:1.

18z Euro is a bit SE of 12z.

2 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah but its probably headed toward hell like the NAM just did.

Eh... we'll see. Could be. But I wouldn't give up any hope over some small shifts at 18z.

2 hours ago, vortmax said:

About 50 mile NW. Wondering if this will be the trend as the sampling gets better.

Half that... 25 miles. Could be the start of a trend or just noise. See what 0z runs do later.

54 minutes ago, Stash said:

Albany is a great office, but they're usually the very last ones to pull the trigger on watches and especially warnings.  And that seems especially true when it involves the greater capital region counties.  Maybe its a verification score thing, I dunno.  Ultimately, it obviously makes no difference to what the weather will do, but it is a little surprising they didn't issue any more watches.  I'm sure they will by tomorrow morning, but at that point we're only talking about a 12+ hour lead time.

Yeah... might as well just go straight to warnings at that point lol. Do think there should be some sort of combination criteria established for Watch/Warning... like 50% of each threshold... to avoid these kinds of subjective differences from office to office. Unless the Gem/Rgem somehow score a coup, every model pretty much has over an inch of liquid in frozen form. Definitely better than 50/50 chance of a high impact winter event.

23 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

NAM verifying would make me sick 

Lol BGM added Delaware to the WSW and Albany did nothing this afternoon. This scenario is one that gets me with the whole Watch/Warning criteria. BGM goes the 'high impact' route for justification in Delaware with 4-6" and .25 ice which is a more than reasonable justification imo. In fact I'd argue 5 inches of wet snowfall on top of .25 of ice accretion  together is probably a much higher impact to life and property than a straight up 8-10" of snow drawn out over 24 hours.

19 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

About to be NAMd. 
 

as tombo pointed out now all models will work to this ideal solution 

Re: name change...

You should go with George002 or George Jr.

Either would be very appropriate.

@winter_rules @Flying MXZ

5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Not even a watch here lol. And I'm fairly far NW.

Yeah you'll get one. I'm thinking as far south as eastern catskills of western Greene and then northeast to Rensselaer. 

BGM will probably add Delaware to match.

7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Oh I'll take it. 

Albany will probably extend WSW all the way south to Greene and Rensselaer counties this afternoon.

14 minutes ago, winter_rules said:

This is tough to watch for those of us who live along the I-88 corridor.  My official forecast to co-workers is 1”-15”.

Rain would pause snowmobiling until we receive more snow.  6”+ would make it beautiful, near perfect, conditions.  We’re right on the brink with all options on the table. 

I'd say 15 is probably out of reach even for the higher terrain and in an all snow scenario due to less than ideal ratios. But 10-12" might be doable if we don't lose much precip to mixing esp in higher elevations.

42 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah, pretty underwhelming as fronts usually are lol.

Take it and run though. We both been teetering on the southern fringe. 6-10 of dense snow always better than a bunch of sleet and zr.

Last 3 Euro runs at 10:1 and 12z precip type output

12 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

euro going to press that high a bit more here this run. Would think this ends up more progressive than 6z unless the caboose low really amps up 

Yep I noticed the same thing but wasn't sure how much difference at the surface it would make. Small but noticeable for those of us on the southern fringe. 

Getting into close enough range where the higher res/skilled Operationals are of more value than ensembles anyway.

Just now, tombo82685 said:

Drier 

Yeah I fixed 

Not much change in Gefs other than cutting back on snowfall maxes a bit

Here was the Rgem and Cmc precip type and 10:1 non-sleet for comparison to other models.

Rgem

Cmc

UK abandoned its outlier status and at least came into the realm of possibilities this run. Looks good for entire forum and somewhat close to the GFS for snowfall amounts.

GFS precip type and 10:1 non-sleet