BGM Blizzard

Gefs for compare

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

It’s gonna take a lot for this to come together. But 50% are hits 

Here was the full spread 

48 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

So THAT'S what a snowstorm looks like here!

Comes around as often as Halleys Comet. Hopefully you got another 70 years left in ya  

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Crazy because I think Bing/Alb set snowfall records last year? Syr has been missed in all directions. Just bad luck TBH. 

Nah, 105.0 at kbgm for 2020-21. Didnt even crack the top 10 (15th).

Kaly finished below avg.

6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I would think it may of been a bit better. The 850s are close to 0z, but the main s/w is slower, imo that would mean more time for cold to push in allowing for a bit more frozen. 

Looking at H5, the confluence looks a bit nw/slower as well though.

10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Does it look like it would be further SE than the 0Z?

Looks about same as 0z just a bit slower 

6z eps added a few more SE solutions to the spread.

Eps still favoring areas n/w of the border

25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

So UK/ICON/GEM Vs GFS/EURO. Anyone taking left side?

The ICON made a hard left on 0z and is actually closest to the 12z Euro, but lighter accums. Def not in a UK/CMC camp.

I'd say the Euro/ICON are a decent middle of the road with the GFS a bit left and the UK a bit right. The CMC is on an island with its extreme SE solution. 

18z Euro would be nw of 12z for the same reasons as the 18z gfs. Stronger wave and lesser confluence. 

Warmest frame. That would probably wipe out what's left of the snowpack across atleast the lower elevations if not all or most of CNY.

Delta would approve that track for wind prospects.

50-75 mi nw shift 

13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

GFS gonna be interesting 

Going to be nw of 12z. Not as much confluence and stronger wave.

37 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Icon misses us to the se. Lol

I'd love for that to be accurate but definitely not buying anything close to that far SE.

45 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Jealous. I washed up my John Deere after my car on Friday. I'd rather be out moving snow with it than having it all polished up sitting in the garage. 

27 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

One of the things I’m reminded of this winter was something someone in NJ mentioned: it snows where it wants to. 
And the tracks are laid early. No science behind this notion but I’ve seen it over and over. BUF, IAG and ROC just happened to fall on the right side this winter (thus far). Syracuse and the southern DAKS fell just SE. Tough to be sure. 
I’ve been there. I’ll take this side for sure! 

Thought the same thing this morning esp if this next storm somehow does snow on that same corridor again.

12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

There's going to be issues with that if the storm this week doesn't come substantially further south. I have a feeling they'll have to cancel.

Yeah hopefully not. According to their website, the last measurement was actually 14" on 2/8. Luckily a few more cold days and nights before the warm up later this week. Not sure what their minimum requirement is for ice depth. 

If anyone is into ice fishing, the almost annual Crappie Derby contest is supposedly a go for next weekend after being cancelled last few years from lack of ice. It's a big ice fishing contest on Whitney Point Lake in Northern Broome (exit 8 on I-81). Supposedly draws a crowd of 8,000+ fishing enthusiasts from all over the Northeast. I heard the last measurement still showed 11" of ice cover on the lake.

Just now, TugHillMatt said:

How's the snowpack down there in Broome county? I imagine the city itself is down to bare ground?

I haven't been down to the city proper in month or more, but we still have about a 5" of glacier left here and I'm 15mi nw of the city. I'm guessing the city probably still has few inches of glacier still. Without the sleet and freezing rain from last storm we'd all be bare down here after that warmup last week.

43 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Lol...yup...AWFUL winter here. Just BAD

Yup outside of WNY, it's bad all across Upstate. SYR is 40" BN now at 47/87. We're stuck at 39/54 (-15). ALY is 17/37 (-20). Hopefully March has a big storm or 2. 

That Op Canadian run was a definite outlier compared to rest of the Op models and ensembles... even it's own. GEPS mean actually shifted W at 0z.

The latest ensembles are pretty ugly to say the least... even for far W NY.

Eps looks like scattershot for end of the week

50.2° here with mostly sunny skies. Wind is brisk though. Def washing the car again this afternoon.

Euro solution could yield ice invof LO and the SLRV. I'll take my rain over that shit lol.

Looking forward to the upcoming cutter washing the road salt off atleast. But other that, the remainder of February is looking pretty shot for snow chances outside of maybe a few localized LE or clipper scraps. Yawn.