BGM Blizzard

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Based on the most recent BGM map, they definitely haven't updated that yet.

Lol yeah probably working on it as we speak along with the AFD update. The grids update every hour on Wxbell.

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Isn't this high end though? At 90th percentile..

Lol yeah that was the default. This site has 10-90%. The 50% version looks like the 18z NBM

Latest nws grids

Wpc 24 hour snowfall thru 0z Sat

18z nbm

Can def tell it has some NAM blended in.

Buf expanded WSW a bit west to line up with Bgm

Bgm expanded the WSW to the rest of the cwa west of 81

Nam should be atleast a little south of 12z.

H5 @ H36... More confluence up north and lower heights out in front. Vort looks a little weaker too.

Euro shifted back south like the gfs. Even further south than the Rgem with the axis of heaviest snow.

2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

I saw a couple comments on the BGM NWS Facebook page where citizens were ranting that forecasts used to be more accurate. They were saying how 1 to 18 inches (exaggerated, of course) is a ridiculous forecast and how are people supposed to rely on that.

I see their point. We just have too many weather models. We want sources to use to help fine-tune things...but at this point, the weather world needs to ask when is it too much? It's just confusing chaos.

I'm guessing that's why NOAA developed the NBM model. Literally just melt and blend it all down and see what the average of the average is and hope it's close to the final solution or close enough such that major adjustments aren't required. 

1045am surface temp map shows where the front is located

11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Rgem looks well south of Nam. Like suppressed. Hahaha

It's actually been very consistent but it's a bit of an (southern) outlier. Keeps mix line near and south of state line. Likely not going to happen as much I hate saying that. A solution somewhere between the NAM and RGEM is probably most realistic. 

Less than 48 hours from start time. NAM going even further north is def a cause for concern. If it's still hell bent on that on the 0z run tonight that's a major red flag. See what the other models do today.

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

CNY looks ridiculous with the two offices not meshing well at all.

See my updated post. I forgot about the minor accums for later today. They'll look about same probably after today.

Nws grids for snowfall. Albany scaled way back to blend better with surrounding offices.

Buf and Bgm still > Ctp along state line.

Buf > than Bgm along the Lake Plain.

Edit: forgot Buf is forecasting some minor accum later today that's also included. Here the pre-storm grid forecast.

12z nbm

6z Euro nudged north 

0z nbm

33 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So I take umbrage with the Euro. It’s south of the other models which means the warm air tongue isn’t in play which means a colder overall solution .4 at KBUF but 4”? 10-1? Toss. It would equate with ratios of 15-1 to 7”. 

Kuchera avg is 17.5:1 at buf so that's almost certainly too high. Maybe somewhere in the middle but probably closer to 10:1 like LEK said.

18z eps mean is near identical to 12z

Not sure if that minima is gonna be legit or not. Could see a dry slot develop somewhere in the forum depending on how the primary behaves/tracks. Hopefully not before thumping anyway.

18z Euro a smidge north of 12z. 

4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Wxbell pretty awesome site. 

Looks like there little bit in the grids for late tomorrow afternoon/evening ahead of the main storm. Buffalo forecasting more than Bgm.

The point n click shows the difference in the grids between sw Oswego (buf) and nw Onondaga (bgm)

3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Where do you get these awesome maps from?

Looks like they're thinking some lake snows with a WNW wind based on those maps.

Wxbell pretty awesome site. 

Looks like there little bit in the grids for late tomorrow afternoon/evening ahead of the main storm. Buffalo forecasting more than Bgm.

Nws grids thru 0z Saturday 

Always interesting to see how the individual offices are thinking. The sharp drop offs at various county lines is kinda funny. Albany much more bullish than Buf, Bgm, and Btv.