BGM Blizzard

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yikes. After accidentally waking up, I thought I'd check models. After seeing what's coming and where indices are heading, I honestly think this winter might be done. Good riddance.

Yeah the Sunday/Monday chance is dead and then it's atleast 1 cutter... maybe more lol.

18z eps has 2 c/e ny scrapers and 48 duds. Going to need a big comeback and soon.

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Just about ready to call this one. Let’s see what 0z does. Could the Canadian capture a HUGE coup? 

Probably not, but... the GEM/RGEM were the closest to nailing the snowfall axis with the last storm amongst atleast the global models for the upstate area. The GFS and esp the Euro were too far SE by 30-40 miles. But that was also a much more minor variance vs. what will be needed to score on this storm as it stands right now.

EPS has a couple C/E NY scrapers but the rest are whiffs.

Euro made some decent strides at H5 but still way east. 

Some nice hits on the GEPS still. Not surprising given the Op run. Even has 1 member over Morgantown WV bound for Jamestown...

0-for-30 on the GEFS

Crazy Uncle went ots this run... well technically scraped the coastline. The inconsistency in that model is just laughable. 

42.8° and sunny here attm. High 40s seem at least possible down here.

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is nice 

Very nice indeed... but not surprising given that Rgem h84 look at H5.

11 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Replay of 6z. It looked really interesting for a second and then just slid away. Running out of time

H5 was a big improvement from 6z run, but yeah still too little too late verbatim.

Might be grasping, but h84 NAM and esp the RGEM have a decent look at h5. Based on that Rgem look, I'll be very curious to see what the 12z Canadian looks like.

Down to just a few decent EPS, GEFS, and Cmc Ens members

They don't call it the crazy Uncle for no good reason

Fwiw... the GEFS and Canadian Ens have some amped members too...

Not much, but there a handful of EPS members that try to blow up and tuck the coastal storm for this coming Sunday/Monday. Likely a whiff, but maybe we win the lottery.

36.5° with flurries and peaks of sunshine. Driveway should be back to bare pavement everywhere by this evening hopefully.

1 hour ago, Stash said:

Looks like it gets progressively worse from West to East across NYS.  BGM might be a slight anomaly due to the airport's high elevation relative to other cities, as well as to downtown Binghamton.  Isn't the airport something like 1600'+ while downtown is around 800-900'?  That would sort of be like Albany's official weather records being recorded on the Helderberg Escarpment (Thatcher Park, around 1000') instead of where the airport currently is at around 300'.

Lol... yeah that's correct. Though I think it's all relative to some extent. I think the downtown area averages about 65-70 while the airport averages 85. The differences on an individual storm level really manifest themselves in the early and late season storms that are much more elevation dependent and there really hasn't been much of that this year with the late start to winter. But I can definitely recall numerous storms in the month of April where the airport got pasted with 12" while us valley folks only got a coating to a few sloppy inches. But I'm also about 930' and only 4 miles west of the airport and I've been nearly right on par with the official airport/nws snowfall reports each storm thus far this winter. Myself and the airport are both on a nice nw flow trajectory for some occasional LES goodies off Cayuga Lake that the city proper to the south usually misses out on, and that also helps a bit over the course of the winter. 

I'm also thinking the 700ft elevation difference between the 300' Albany proper and nearby 1000' hills you describe might not actually be the same pound for pound difference as the 900' valleys and 1630' airport here. Elevation difference will become more neutralized as you gain altitude... I.e. 900' / 1600' is 56% while 300' / '1000 is 30%. I think the orientation of the HRV also lends itself to more severe shadowing/downsloping effects on occasion that we don't really ever experience here. Once in while the Poconos and/or Catskills can cause some shadowing of southern/eastern Broome county including City of Bing proper but that tends to fade as you move further nw toward my area and the airport.

Topped out at 41.9° with filtered sunshine. Was able to make good headway on clearing the driveway down to pavement after all the sleet and zr build up from last storm. My ocd can't stand having a paved driveway with snow or ice pack build up.

Albany now in last place both in YtD snowfall and YtD actual as % of YtD avg.

BUF - 73.5 YtD, 65.1 avg, 112.9%

ROC - 61.5 YtD, 63.0 avg, 97.6%

SYR - 46.7 YtD, 81.2 avg, 57.5%

BGM - 39.1 YtD, 50.6 avg, 77.3%

ALB - 17.1 YtD, 34.6 avg, 49.4%

Ended up with about 4 inches of combined sleet and snow here.

Had to drive to Cornell U yesterday and they had a solid 8" by 11am or so and then another 3-4" of fluff during the afternoon hours with the final wave. Very wintry scene up there.

Flipped to all sometime around 6am I'm guessing. Mdt rates right now... eyeballing an inch or so of snow so far. Temp down to 17.8°...

21.7° and still all sleet here. Maybe 1.5" worth eyeballing. Mix to snow line running from about Elmira-Marathon-Norwich and starting to creep se... but doesn't look like much precip will be left by then.

8 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

 

What location are you at down there? 

I'm in the NY-26 valley in Town of Maine. About halfway between Endicott and Whitney Point. Just downhill from kbgm Airport.

Stepped outside and we are mixing with freezing rain again. Ugh. The sleet on the ground is being glacierized as we speak.