BGM Blizzard

6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

It seems ridiculous to be so fixated on these roll-outs but really these ARE the big money runs before they lock-in and start more ‘fine-tuning’. 

Esp this year cuz of most of us being well bn in snowfall ytd. We're getting desperate lol.

16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Euro going to be more progressive at 18z

Yep I noticed less phasing and more push up north as well. See what the eps does shortly.

18z gefs has more cutters in the spread vs 12z

BUF

12z Eps mean has more spread vs 0z

5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Cuse to bgm ftw this run?

This whole setup looks like a thread the needle job and whoever gets the goods should feel very fortunate. Very delicate balance between a semi-cutter and flatter more suppressed wave. I'd expect alot of volatility in the models for at least a few days until all these different players get sorted out.

12z Cmc Ensembles favor a more NW track vs Op, but plenty of spread. 

Eps mean shifted SE a bit at 18z and again here at 0z. Probably a bunch of big hits.

3 minutes ago, tim123 said:

That's a major icestorm in s tier

No thanks. Give me rain, sleet, or snow.

6 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Clown map for euro? Freezing rain accumulations?

Not alot of margin for error between suppression and being too far nw it seems either. 

Midweek setup def seems more favorable to W and N NY. I've never been a fan of these swfe setups that rely on timing and boundary positions. Always seems to be late and end up hanging up further nw. We shall see.

12z eps tightened up and is more concentrated on the GL vs 0z.

Cmc ensembles 

16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I think thats congrats detriot. Looks like rain/ice/ends as snow  here

@TugHillMattapproved

Some nice fluff bombs here right now. Might eek out an inch from this arctic front before going into the freezer again. Hooray.

I'm actually not lamenting a weak cutter with a brief warm up. Getting a bit tired of the cold and dry. Was -20 again here this morning. The roads and my car could badly use a washing off of the road salt.

16 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

I’ll take 3-6/4-8” and run which is exactly where this probably settles for me just over the Delaware on the NY side.

Definitely good possibility. GFS just shifted W again for like the 4th straight run. Hopefully you get decent ratios down there. BGM will probably be issuing WWA at some point for some of the Ne PA counties and Sullivan NY.

1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Where I am in the Catskills it is getting insanely close between nothing and 6+, which is still relatively nothing seeing the totals being spat out on LI 

 

And trust me, they can have it, this weekend one year ago I was digging out of 25”, don’t need that again 

Definitely some favorable trends from the meso models for those sweating it on the western fringe in ENY / Catskills region. The prospects for the VT slopes looking better too.

28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Right along the water would be pretty intense 2 feet of snow and gust over 50 MPH. @Syrmax you chasing?

Reed Timmer will be on the Cape. Can't wait to see his live feeds.

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Uh oh

Good trends today

Outside of the NAM, everything has shifted noticeably E on 12z runs so far due to holding the energy back in the SW. Gonna be some epic melts this afternoon in the NE forum if the Euro and EPS shift as well.