BGM Blizzard

6z eps (for the sake of ENY/Catskill folks)

1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

00Z GFS....LOL. Congrats Nantucket. Thing rapidly deepening and slides outside the 40/70 BM.  Chase cancel! 

We might not even see high cirrus in CNY...maybe on eastern horizon. Wow.

Honestly it's getting close to that time where it becomes too far fetched for this to come west enough for i81 to get anything decent. Time to start hoping it east ots? There'd be some epic NE melts.

17 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

That’s a big storm…

Heavy helping of Cirrus is in store for all or most of the forum unless we get some big changes and soon.

Good writeup from Albany

18z EPS mean looks slightly slower and maybe a tad SE of 12z but not much. Less clustering of the members too. 

18z Euro pretty close to 12z... maybe little W and slower if you want to nitpick.

Looking at the 18z init, the main piece of energy for this storm is nearly onshore right now in AK and British Columbia, and looks to be completely onshore by 0z this evening. There a couple other smaller players still in the Pacific that dont come onshore in AK and the Pac NW until tomorrow morning/early afternoon. Probably grasping at straws, but I'll hold out some hope until the 12z and 0z runs tomorrow.

10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’ll be pretty surprised if GEFS doesn’t come west. I think one of our issues is lack of any heights to the east. Pretty flat along the EC. But it was improved for sure. Just kind of weird that it ended up the same. ?!?

No substantive changes on the 18z gefs mean, it actually ticked SE of 12z.

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Not so sure that matters as the high squashes its northward potential.

Yeah... f it lol. I'm about to give up. Nothing seems to matter. Thought for sure things might look different this run (not necessarily a hit for part of the forum) but the track played out about the same as 12z at the surface. O well.

GFS might explode on this run. H5 looks way better than 12z. Hopefully comes west a good bit.

EPS mean basically same as 6z, just a very slight nudge W.

48 hour precip and 10:1 snow. Don't have a 48hr Kuchera so that captures some pre-storm snow before 0z Saturday. 

Euro did move east of 0z a bit with the track, but the precip shield extended further nw this run. 

What sucks is usually a stronger more amped storm would mean a further W track but things just aren't lining up and phasing in time to pull the track in toward the coastline. 

Cmc shifted W some but we're still shutout up here. A 952mb bomb south of the BM. Major blizz for E LI and ENE.

GFS is gonna bump nw from 0/6z but still a shutout for the forum. 

20 minutes ago, Stash said:

I'm sitting somewhere between 15-20" at best on the season...I haven't added up all the tenths yet.  Albany Airport is currently getting beat by Jackson, KY, Charlestown, WV, and tied with DC.  It's been brutal overall, but the cloudy and cold weather has let us maintain our snowpack at least.

Hopefully you get a nice dump later this week.

Euro and EPS keep some hope alive atleast. But right now it's the western edge of the guidance and still mostly a miss outside of ENY.

3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

ICON has it too. 

Lol yeah... it gives Nantucket a dusting on its way to Nova Scotia. 

Snow about done here... picked up 1.7"

84hr nam looks similar to the 18z gfs with holding the energy back in the SW. Like I said the other day... if this thing is gonna miss the entire forum including ENY, hopefully it's like the 18z gfs and misses everyone lol.

Hmm... not much if any improvement on EPS. Pretty close to 12z actually... maybe slight nudge east if anything. Alot better than the GEFS anyway.

18z Euro looks noticeably better than its 12z run @H5. Hopefully puts the GFS/GEFS in it's place.

See what the EPS yields.

Decent rates. Hoping we can scratch 2" for plowing in the morning. I hate shoveling.