BGM Blizzard

6 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Nice bump in totals generally..

 

Here the precip breakdown by type and 10:1 without sleet included. 

Gonna be nip and tuck down here. Definitely looks to start as ice but hopefully not for long. Blah.

36 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Looks like they are tightening up. The nw fringe didn’t move much. Just losing all those more progressive run makes it seem that way 

Yeah I meant the mean shifted. With more nw solutions and less se solutions the mean will shift to the nw.

45 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I think I posted more than some of you posters during your big event last year in Binghamton. I'm not an IMBY poster. I'm just a fan of huge storms, albeit it LES/synoptic. I followed that storm yesterday all day in their thread. But if a big dog LES storm hits, that is the only thing I want IMBY.

You'll catch me in the hurricane/tornadic outbreak threads all over AMX posting in spring/summer.

I'm just busting your chops.

8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

This is the problem with that phased solution. You guys want a rain/sleet storm? Here it is…

Looks good for Buffalo and that's all that matters 

Eps shifted nw as one would expect following that Op run.

5 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Let's see the kutchie 

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

We take

That's some major difference at H5 between 0z and 12z

Euro looks like it wants to shift nw this run based on the compare at h81. Arctic boundary is slower and/or further nw and trough is more neutral looking in the sw. 

12 CMC ensemble mean is juicy as a result of better clustering this run.

22 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Boy, these are persistent in showing that slop storm you’re so hard about. 

Does give me some pause being that they are usually SE of the Op more often than not. But the EPS have been fairly adamant on being further SE as well and that does seem very logical given how anomalous that arctic HP is as Tombo and various NWS outlets have alluded.

UK shifted nw a bit

6z eps has alot of good hits for most of the forum. Better track angle too.

6z Euro was bit nw of 0z at 90 hour end time. Finally stopped the SE bleed this run.

Hit a low -16.8° @ 7:19.

Currently -9.6°.

So over this nonsense. 

Forgot to post the CMC Ensembles earlier. Also shifted SE.

Eps mean shifted a little SE as well

Euro continues to shift SE. Decent snowfall south of i-90 with little to no mixed precip anywhere... just ra/sn verbatim. Before long it'll look like the UK and mostly hit south of the forum.

Stuck @129 hours on WB and PW.

0z gefs not nearly as cutterish as 12z/18z. Several heavy hitters in the spread.

UK

Gefs coming in SE of the 12/18z runs and juiced.

GFS trying for a phased storm around 200 too.

That's multiple consecutive SE shift by the Op. Gotta imagine the gefs will start moving SE this run.

Verbatim, lots of mixed precip with that run.

18z eps SE of 12z