BGM Blizzard

54 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

18z Euro is amped and showing a better phase.

 

Eps followed suit. Small but noticeable shift west.

30 minutes ago, vortmax said:

We need the NBM. 

0z pre and post storm

18z Euro is amped and showing a better phase.

Some monster hits on GEFS would appear to be skewing the mean a little bit. Also a little hard to tell how much tomorrow's event is skewing the indiv member panels. Can't narrow the interval unfortunately like you can for the 10:1 mean.

12z ensemble mean 10:1 (not including tomorrow event)

2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Things can change but IMO this is a warning event for everyone but Buffalo. And that’s close

Hopefully the Gfs/Gefs is right. Euro and cmc and their ensembles are much more muted.

12z Euro, gfs and cmc 10:1 for this storm only

This looks like an advisory event to me for the most part at this stage. Like a general 3-6 with maybe a stripe of 6-9 somewhere along the front where the best forcing is (CNY?). The negative factors against a bigger event appear to include fast-moving wave, positive-neutral trough, less than ideal snow rates for most of the event, time of day (mostly a Saturday event), and a warm antecedent ground and air mass (m/u 40s friday).

Just now, wolfie09 said:

Just hit 70° here, time to start up the grill 

Same. Grilling up some sausage later.

Temps at 12:30

Sizzlecuse might make a run at 80° 

Marginal risk for Svr storms out today for large chunk of Upstate

Also showing some impressive Cape for this time of year in parts of CNY along with strong shear. Could see a few Svr Tstorm warnings along the front.

Hrrr shows mid 70s on the lake plain for several hours

Already 60° here with mostly sunny skies. We're definitely going north of 70.

5 hours ago, winter_rules said:

I can only look at those maps and laugh…the theme of the year continues. Those of us near the I-88 corridor fall JUST on the southern boundary of snow. Granted, the snow line will end up 50 miles north of there, but it’s amusing to see us shown on the fringe yet again.

5 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

I was thinking the exact same thing and wasn't about to be the first to post about it. I avoided checking the models the past 2 days and was dumb and looked this morning. Overnight runs for Monday: Syracuse, below the best snow line with Buffalo to Watertown yet again getting the snow.

These weak sauce waves arent going to produce much of anything anyway other than mood flakes. Aside from fighting the usual underwhelming snow growth and precip rates, now that we're into March, you can add increasingly hostile boundary layer, sun angle, and antecendent warm/wet ground into the factors working against accumulation depending on time of day. 

2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

 

I give this winter a big fat D-. The only reason it didn't get an F was for the pretty consistent snowpack for January and February (even though much of that survived only because of the layers of sleet/ice mixed in).

I agree 100% with that assessment. 

2015-16 set the bar for an F so low that just the consistent snowpack for Jan-Feb results in a D- for this winter as it stands now.

For compare, kbgm had 21.7 in 2015-16 thru 2/27 compared to 44.9 for 2021-22 thru 2/27.

54 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Roc had a great winter. But point taken. 

Yeah I just went by who was BN for the season right now. Definitely way worse in C and E NY for sure.

Holding out some hope for one last big dump, but doesn't look promising. What a dogs**t winter otherwise. Hopefully ROC eastward will rebound next year.

15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Did anybody see any reports for freezing rain in the Southern Tier? I checked but couldn't find any. It seems like this was more of a thump of sleet for many and then it either transitioned to rain (in PA) or snow (in NY).

We definitely got a glaze here (few hundredths). The top of the snow/sleet mix had a nice crusty topping to it. 

1 hour ago, Buckeyes_Suck said:

Is this a 4wd Deere? 
if so would you recommend?

I have a husqvarna that is desperately under tractioned…

Yes sir its an 2020 X758 4x4 Diesel with differential lock and heavy duty all purpose (hdap) tires. It's a lawn tractor on steroids. Plowed the 3" of concrete with no issues and I didn't even install the 250lbs of weights to it. No chains required either. 

I got the 54" plow and added the 9" wing extensions to it for 72" width. Also got the 54" snowblower attachment for deeper snows. 

Got it last April and have been very pleased. Would definitely recommend. 

Finished with 3 inches of crusty heavy concrete here.

Currently 37° with breaks of sun and very windy.

Plowed 4 driveways in the neighborhood including my own.

4 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

2 inches in the last hour at KSYR, 3 inches on the ground. 

Definitely going to fall short of WSW criteria unless that deform on the backside of the dry slot saves the day. But least it's all snow up there.

Dry slot rapidly moving in from the west now.

Just now, 96blizz said:

Just Jebwalked and it’s wow out there. Headed back out before the lull!!  This is what we track for!

How much so far?