For marginal areas, you'd want the convection to really get going and get as organized as possible this afternoon .. would go a long way overnight to have a more uniform area of big lift as opposed to a more banded structure
maybe early jan 2020? Big ULL went south of us but in the dryslot there was thunderstorms with close to severe criteria hail in western ma / ct. IIRC it was sleeting at the time too.