janetjanet998

I didn't see the Euro map mentioned ,,,but 5 more inches from N MS to Jackson KY sounds like Lake Cumberland watershed

more info on the latest

With the additional rainfall expected this week, reaching elevation 750 is possible. The pool of record is 751.69 set in May 1984. In the history of Wolf Creek Dam, which spans back to 1950, elevation 745 has been exceeded twice – 747.12 in April 1962 and the pool of record.

“This winter has been an unprecedented event in that we continue to see rainfall events and have not had enough consecutive dry days to regain storage in the reservoir, nor have downstream conditions been conducive to increasing discharges from the dam,” said Robert Dillingham, hydraulic engineer in the Nashville District Water Management Section. “It remains a priority for the Nashville District to lower Lake Cumberland and regain the flood control storage in the reservoir as soon as downstream conditions allow.”

Dillingham said the Nashville District has made preparations downstream to allow releases from Lake Wolf Creek Dam, which will likely be larger than have been observed in several decades.

“Releases from the reservoir will be increased and we plan to lower the reservoir as soon as possible,” Dillingham added. “However, considering March and April are historically the highest precipitation months, it could take several months before Lake Cumberland returns to a seasonal elevation.”

https://milfeed.com/2019/02/20/corps-of-engineers-dispels-wolf-creek-dam-safety-rumors/

you can see these wet areas in old youtube videos too...and even when the lake is low..the concrete is stained...similar to if your ceiling ever leaked then dried

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#NashvilleCorps dispelling rumors today that Wolf Creek Dam in #Jamestown #Kentucky is in danger of imminent failure https://www.lrn.usace.army.mil/Media/News-Releases/Article/1762058/nr-19-006-corps-of-engineers-dispels-wolf-creek-dam-safety-rumors/ … #WaterManagement #DamSafety #USACE #LakeCumberland

NR 19-006: Corps of Engineers dispels Wolf Creek Dam safety rumors
 

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (Feb. 20, 2019) – The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Nashville District is dispelling rumors today that Wolf Creek Dam in Jamestown, Ky., is in danger of imminent failure.

A local radio station commentator put out false information this morning that Wolf Creek Dam could fail at any time and local residents downstream needed to formulate an evacuation plan. 

 “This is completely false,” said Kyle Hayworth, Dam Safety Program Manager with the Nashville District. “The dam is not failing. There have been no signs of distress with the project, and our dam safety staff has been and will continue to monitor all of the Cumberland River Basin dams throughout this high-water event.”

The Corps of Engineers is also aware of a social media video making its rounds that shows water leaking from the concrete face of the dam, and is addressing similar public fears, letting people know there is no reason for alarm.

“The water observed seeping out of the concrete is at a joint where drainage systems relieve internal pressures inside the dam,” said Brad Long, acting chief of the Nashville District’s Civil Design Branch.  “It is not a dam safety concern.  It will likely continue until the pool elevation returns to normal levels.”

The Nashville District is posting the very latest updates on its website and on Lake Cumberland’s Facebook page. The public is highly encouraged to seek out these resources for reliable information about water management, operations at the dam, and impacts around the lake.

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Thankfully Euro shows only one more (admittedly long-lived) system to endure after this one before we get a break. Unfortunately it also shows a general 5-6" with a dollop of 8" inches over central/ western TN and central KY in an axis running from around N. MS to Jackson KY. 

it is going to a battle with lake Cumberland all spring....the lake this year, and early winter 2018,  has peaks and valleys similar to that stair step river crest post,,, but over a longer time span.. but each valley is higher when it starts raining again  ..it may peak a few days after it stops raining say early next week....fall 10-13 feet when it is dry for a week....but if it turns wet again it will start at a higher level maybe about where it is now perhaps?

better hope after a dry period after next week too..so it can get down closer to the full summer pool 723..only 9 feet from the record and only 19 feet from spilling over the top of the spillway....which may not be in play this time...but if we get a repeat of this in a couple weeks who knows...

record outflow is 40,000 ..holding at 25,000 ....down from 29,000 yesterday,,,,

so do they dump more water now thinking about the very long term later in the spring?  they really can't because of the next storm you mentioned

/20/2019    noon    741.62       25,330
2/20/2019    1 PM    741.80       25,330
2/20/2019    2 PM    742.00        25,420

SOMERSET 
Heavy rains the last few days have pushed Lake Cumberland to a level not seen in more than 20 years.

The elevation of the lake surface was 741.62 feet above sea level at noon on Wednesday, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

It was last at that level in 1998, when it hit 742.4 feet.

Continued rain could push the lake to 750 feet, according to the corps.

https://www.kentucky.com/news/state/kentucky/article226520435.html

Cairo crest forecast 54.5   11th all time

Paducah 51.5 8th

still no updated crest numbers for the  OH

Lake Cumberland hit hard, in fact you couldn't ask for a better train set up..most of the watershed is to the SE of the lake and  that is exactly the area that got hit with 2-3 inches over much of the basin

10 feet from the record

2/20/2019    9 AM    741.06      25,150
2/20/2019    10 AM    741.26        25,240
2/20/2019    11 AM    741.42     25,240
2/20/2019    noon    741.62     25,330

Lake cumberland stats (last column outflow) ..getting trained now 10.8 feet from record high,,,only the 8th time above 740 feet

2/20/2019    6 AM    740.75        25,060
2/20/2019    7 AM    740.84       25,060
2/20/2019    8 AM    740.94       25,060

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Bad situation in Davidson Co and surrounding areas...overlapping FFW in that area.

12z NAM hits them with another train tommrow night/friday too..

the seems to be a loosely organized convective system over MS. with he head near the MS/TN/AL state line .the warm front of this is what is training over central TN..up the cumberland basin..the "cold front" is pushing more east but still training later it looks like

lake cumberland rising rapidly now

1-2.5 inches fell along the OH river last night

the levels at Paducha and Cairo are spiking well above forecast points now

flash flood warnings for nashville

1.4 at KCHA so far

2.24 KHSV 

there is a precip min north of this from Nashville to lake Cumberland watershed...between the more heavy precip near the MS river

00z  NAM troubling for central TN...in.later periods(may change to a different location)

they have cut back on flows from Cumberland. now down to 25,000 cfs from 29K...will be interesting to see if they increase again once the first slug of precip passes

lake level as of 4pm 740.22. 

for some reason the river gauge on the NWS site is below the TVA gauge ...the TVA page updates in batches and is delayed but you can see the 15 min rises on the NWS river gauge in real time (hr delay) under tabular data

not much news out of TVA or the media about the lake level....internet rumblings and rumors last weekend said the Corp expects tto hit 745...but that was before the higher then expected rain that fell over the weekend

I can tell you it its going to go higher then 745....epsecially if any training sets up over the watershed..

DWR( CA version of TVA) was always behind the curve on Dduring Oroville and said it wouldn't go over the emergency spillway when it was obvious it was.. DWR calculates inflow into their lakes but taking the known out flow and the change in lake level per hour using a known chart....TVA doesn't do that to at least doesn't makes it public

Lake Cumberland 740.08 and still rising without any new rain

I hope they reset the radars total storm totals after the bright banding is over..I forsee people on social media sites pointed out  the inflated amounts

flash flood warnings north central MS....

for some reason they didn't increase the OH river crests today///

it's nowcast time....I suspect the front will get hung up more then modeled

KMSL already over 3/4 on an inch already

12z models so far keep the training storms along and west of the MS river out of the TVA system the first event,,but NAMS sometimes too far NW

  NOTE:  radars will likely be bright branded at the beginning of this event so precip amounts will be overdone the further you get from the radar site

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
948 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2019  
  
DAY 1  
VALID 15Z TUE FEB 19 2019 - 12Z WED FEB 20 2019  
  
1500 UTC UPDATE  
  
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK.  
  
ORAVEC  
  
...A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS BETWEEN THE  
ARKLATEX AND SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY...  
  
LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH/OHIO VALLEY...  
THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS MOISTURE SURGING NORTH OUT  
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH ON AN 850 MB JET OF 50-70 KTS, WHICH  
ADVECTS A PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.5-1.75" NORTH  
ACROSS LA INTO SOUTHEAST AR AND ADJACENT MS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES  
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ASCENT IS AIDED BY INCREASING  
DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
AMPLIFIES. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE AND  
INCREASING RAINFALL RATES IN THIS AREA.  BASED ON THE 18Z & 00Z  
GFS GUIDANCE, INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) ECLIPSES 1000  
KG/(M*S), WITH ITS NARROWNESS INDICATING THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME  
QUALIFIES AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY/TUESDAY  
EVENING.  THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF  
THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH INCREASINGLY FAVORS CELL TRAINING WITH TIME.   
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RISES TO 60-80 KNOTS.  MESOCYCLONES ARE  
EXPECTED, BUT THE INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE INCREASINGLY FAVOR A  
CONVECTIVE MODE MORE ALONG THE LINES OF A COLD TROUGH SQUALL LINE  
ONCE THE 850 HPA FLOW STARTS TO VEER TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING  
CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST WITHIN THE SURFACE LOW'S WARM SECTOR,  
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN  
MS, WHERE A LESSER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK HAS BEEN INDICATED.  
   
A TOTAL OF 3-4" APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREAL AVERAGE  
AMOUNTS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE 5-6" RANGE POSSIBLE  
PER THE MODEST SIGNAL SEEN IN THE 00Z MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.  IN  
NORTHERN LA, NORTHERN MS, EASTERN AR, AND TN, HOURLY TOTALS IN THE  
1-2" RANGE SHOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY  
FORECAST (DESPITE THE 00Z HREF PROBABILITIES INDICATING LOWER).   
THIS, ALONG WITH TWO WEEK PRECIPITATION OF 300-500% OF AVERAGE  
SOMEWHAT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR, TN, KY, AND THE OH  
VALLEY RESULTED IN MAINTAINING THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM  
CONTINUITY WITH COSMETIC CHANGES.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW  
SPREAD IN REGARDS TO THE QPF IN GENERAL WITH THE 00Z NAM THE  
FARTHEST NORTHWEST -- AS USUAL -- WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN REGIONAL,  
00Z ECMWF TO SOME DEGREE, AND 18/00Z GEFS-BASED QPF REFORECAST  
WERE MORE EASTWARD.  WHEN ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE CONCERNING WHERE  
THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT WERE  
EXPECTED, THIS BROADENED THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOOTPRINT FROM  
CONTINUITY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND QPF  
REFORECAST.  THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM  
THE DEEP SOUTH INTO TN WITH TIME, WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHEST  
HOURLY RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.  TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST,  
RAINFALL SHOULD BE OF LONGER DURATION DUE TO MORE LIMITED  
INSTABILITY WITH HOURLY TOTALS CLOSER TO THE 0.5" RANGE SO DID NOT  
ALLOW THE MODERATE RISK AREA TO SHIFT VERY FAR INTO KY.   
COORDINATED WITH THE WINTER WEATHER FORECASTER TO ATTEMPT TO  
DELIMIT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK  
AREAS.  
  
ROTH  
  
DAY 2  
VALID 12Z WED FEB 20 2019 - 12Z THU FEB 21 2019  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF  
THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY  
MOTNING...  
  
....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIFNALL FROM THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...  
   
..SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY  
  
A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SHOULD BE ON-GOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE  
DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD, AIDED BY A WELL DEFINED MOSITURE PLUME  
COMING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...GOOD MID-LEVEL FORCING AND A  
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  MAINTAINED THE ON-GOING MODERATE RISK  
AREA IN PARTS OF ALABAMA WHERE THERE LOOKS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP  
OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE DAY 1 AND DAY 2 PERIOD.  
  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN ON DAY 1, WITH MOST  
AREAS UNDER 2 INCHES.  
THE SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT REFLECTS THE  
HIGHER GROUND MOISTURE CONTENT  
AND REDUCED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND  
TENNESSEE.  
  
THE MODERATE RISK REMAINED WHERE OVERLAP OF HIGHER QPF OCCURS, BUT  
THE INCREASE IN FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES FURTHER SOUTH IN BOTH  
MS/AL LEADS TO ONLY A SLIGHT RISK DESPITE SIMILAR RAINFALL TOTALS  
TO NORTHERN AL. LATER UPDATES MAY BE MADE AS RAINFALL TOTALS  
ADJUST, BUT ALSO CHANGES IN FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE DUE TO PRIOR  
RAINS OCCURRING BETWEEN NOW AND THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD.  
  
BANN  
  
DAY 3  
VALID 12Z THU FEB 21 2019 - 12Z FRI FEB 22 2019  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHERN U.S. ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...  
   
..SOUTHERN U.S.  
  
AFTER A BRIEF LULL, MORE MOISTURE WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF  
RAINFALL BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO PARTS OF  
LOUISIANA, ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND  
EARLY FRIDAY.  
  
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL INITIALLY LEAD TO DECREASING  
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THE DAY ON  
THURSDAY.  WITH MAXIMUM VALUE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING 1.4 TO  
1.5 INCHES EARLY IN THE EVENT AND A FEED OF COOLER/DRIER/MORE  
STABLE AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTH, RAINFALL RATES AND COVERAGE  
OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE WANING EARLY.   
  
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND BEGINS  
TO ACCELERATE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL  
GUIDANCE SHOWED DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW QUICKLY IT TAKES TO  
INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY TO  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...BUT THE CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE  
AFTER 22/00Z WHEN ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300K TO 310K LEVELS  
INCREASES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER LA/AR/MS RECOVER AND  
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES BY 22/12Z. THIS SHOULD BE  
SUFFICIENT TO FOCUS AND SUSTAIN RAINFALL RATES HIGH ENOUGH FOR  
FLASH FLOODING.  
  
THERE WAS SOME DEBATE OVER THE NEED FOR A MODERATE RISK AREA...BUT  
FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE (BOTH IN TERMS  
OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT) TO REMAIN WITH A SLIGHT RISK AREA DESPITE  
THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.  AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE CAN STILL BE  
MADE IF NEEDED.   
  
SINCE THE NEXT PHASE OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND BEYOND, REFER TO FORECASTS AND  
DISCUSSIONS PREPARED BY THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE SECTION FOR  
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.  

well with light rain moving into the southern TVA area..lets call the event started....it may rain continuously   somewhere in watershed (TVA/OH) the whole week.....best chance for a break in between systems on Thursday as the firehose weakens and heads south  before the next wave

lake Cumberland as of 10pm last night 739.52 should hit  740 this morning..record 751.7ish.    2.5-3.5 inches basin wide should break it if outflows remain 29,000ish....any training ..all bets are off

OH river crest without the big weekend system (both points running ahead of last nights forecast points)

Paducah 49.5

cairo 53

both top 18 all time crests (even a slight increase will move up the list fast)

Lake Barkley/KY lake levels about 755.1 feet.  summer pool 759. record 772ish..outflows into OH 282,000 cfs

the weekend event looks troubling because there is potential of the front to get hung up , usually poorly modeled, due to convection and training.....

They have have increased flows out of Barkley again to 100K this evening....Ky lake still 188K... So 288,000 total into the OH...ALOT....for reference 600K  (record) was the max outflow after the may 2010 event..

TVA page now says 238K from Kentucky alone expected on the 2OTH

that wasn't the plan two days ago( see news article in my earlier post). I assume since the new crest on the OHIO will be higher and later....dumping out water now won't increase the peak so they want to ditch as much as possible util the crest gets closer

so yesterday the TN river at Savannah was expected to rise to 390 feet (major 387) the 24th . just updated now says 385 and change....so they either plan on releasing less water from pickwick or expected less rainfall....or maybe both

lake Cumberland now at 739.08 ft and rising up 2 feet the past 24 hours 

outflow 28,720....flow at Cumberland river at williamburg  KY upstream 18,000 cfs expect to hit 27,000 by weds and hold above 24,000 all week

there is obviously other inflow then  the Williamsburg number but I think you get the point

if other words inflow will be increasing 

going to get really interesting 

20 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

It's lose/lose cause they had to open them here..i live right beside the Tellico River here in SE TN and we went into flood stage early this morning, if the tributary dams had not been pushing what they were, we would have had numerous water rescues. We are nearing 3" already, plus the modeled 6-7 thru this weekend and we will exceed the previous guidance from a few days ago. 

 

you will briefly get hit with the WF...(heavier west).but then likely a break...a big  key for you is how much the firehose get pushed into north GA out of the watershed Thursday for a bit(6-9 hours maybe) before  it heads back north with the next wave..

23 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

. Its a lose/lose situation nearly.

yep....2 days ago it looked like SE TN was going to get 8 inches ..so they sent all  this water down the river..it has to get into KY lake at some point...and then inot the OH river..so far not much reduction at Kentucky/Barkley

but now areas more NW we get into the action too

13 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

EPS looks to follow the GEFS/Euro Op in increasing totals...hate to be TVA looking at the data. Its a lose/lose situation nearly.

I assume  (EURO) that some of that precip over central MS and AL is from the later system next week...better not have a north trend with that into the TVA watershed again

with some for rain factored in ..I believe 48 hours so thru 12z weds... creast raised to 53 feet from 52 feet at Cairo next monday

will TVA hold more  water back now or later?  looks like they are not slowing down the outflow that much ..

huge amounts of water are planned to be dumped from the TN river into Kentucky lake this week

13 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said:

We don't need more rain down here in Chattanooga. If we continue in this pattern it will be bad for farmers especially. By the way, where is your location JanetJanet?

Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk
 

I'm in Peoria IL..I just track and follow extreme weather events as a hobby(30+ years) , (ie  the Oroville Dam mess and houston Harvey flooding) this is a unique situation...due to the record wet last year...and the fact soils are wet and runoff already very high...and with this system dumping so much water over a large area..at least it isn't later in the spring and lakes are closer to their summer pool already...the flip side that no green vegetation to help soaked up some of it yet..

the pattern better break after this ....

12z GVSFV3 nails Kentucky lake area 6-7 inches and you guys still 4-5 ....

thru this weekends system..note: two days ago models wanted to blast a huge high from Canada down shutting this off..got delayed.....now trends are for more rain next week at least for southern parts of your area ....  

DAY 2  
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 19 2019 - 12Z WED FEB 20 2019  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF  
THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...  
  
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY  
TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM PARTS OF ARKANSAS TO PORTIONS OF  
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  A  
MODERATE RISK REMAINS IN PLACE.  
  
THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN STILL FEATURES A DEEP-LAYERED  
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WHEN THE  
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY MORNING.  WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND  
ACCELERATE TO BETWEEN 45 KTS AND 60 KTS IN RESPONSE TO THE  
APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING  
DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS THE AXIS OF A 160 TO 180 KT UPPER  
LEVEL JET MOVES INTO POSITION.  THE RESULT WILL BE A WELL-DEFINED  
MOISTURE PLUME GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF  
MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES NEAR  
THE GULF COAST AND LESSER VALUES DOWNSTREAM.  THE RESULT WILL BE  
INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE AND INCREASING RAINFALL RATES FROM THE  
GULF COAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE  
DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD.  
  
THERE WERE SOME CONSISTENT SIGNALS IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THAT  
THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT COMPARED WITH  
EARLIER THINKING...BUT THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE  
PLUME AND DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY/INTENSE RAINFALL IS STILL ON-TRACK  
WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES APPEARING TO BE THE MOST LIKELY RAIN...WITH  
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  THIS RESULTED IN MAINTAINING THE MODERATE  
RISK AREA BUT ADJUSTING THE PLACEMENT OF IT AREA SOMEWHAT WEST OF  
WHERE IT WAS IN PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS.  ALSO NUDGED THE EASTERN  
PERIHERY WESTWARD. TOO, SINCE IT APPEARS A BROAD SPRAWLING HIGH TO  
THE NORTHEAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE FEEDING STABLE AIR ON  
THE EASTERN FLANK...BUT LEFT THE SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE AT OR NEAR  
THE BOUNDARIES COLLABORATED ON SUNDAY.   
  
THERE OVERALL PLACEMENT SHOULD BE CONFINED IN A FAIRLY NARROW  
CHANNEL BETWEEN THE DEEP SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND  
HEADED TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE  
SOUTH AND EAST.  EVEN SO, THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE  
MODELS AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND WPC  
TENDED TO STAY BETWEEN THE WESTERLY ECMWF AND THE EASTERN  
OPERATIONAL GFS (WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO THE GFS-FV3).   
  
BANN  
  
DAY 3  
VALID 12Z WED FEB 20 2019 - 12Z THU FEB 21 2019  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF  
THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO  
EARLY THURSDAY...  
  
A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE  
OHIO VALLEY WILL BE ON-GOING AT THE START OF THE DAY 3 FORECAST  
AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE BEYOND 21/12Z.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE  
AS GREAT AS THEY WERE ON DAY 2...BUT THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS MAXIMIZED OVER PORTIONS  
OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  A MODERATE RISK AREA OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL WAS PLACED WHERE THE OVERLAP APPEARED GREATEST FROM THE  
DAY 2 AND DAY 3 WPC QPF.   
  
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FROM DAY 2 WILL BE EASING  
EASTWARD OVER PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA DURING THE PERIOD.   
WHILE RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO DIMINISH A BIT, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL  
APPEARS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY ONCE  
AGAIN LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THE  
PRIMARY FOCUS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA THAT GETS THE HEAVIEST  
RAINFALL ON DAY 2...BUT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA OR SOUTHERN  
TENNESSEE MAY HAVE 48-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5  
INCHES DESPITE MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EACH DAY.  FLASH FLOOD  
GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK TO DECREASE IN RESPONSE.  
  
ELSEWHERE, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCREASING SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR  
NORTH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL WILL MAKE IT AND WHEN/WHERE THE  
NEXT ROUND INITIATES.  AS A RESULT, THE CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE WAS  
TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MODERATE RISK AREA EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS  
PRETTY HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER PHASE OF THIS LONG-TERM  
RAINFALL EVENT.  A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED FROM THE SOUTHERN  
TIER OF STATES ALONG THE GULF COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. DID NOT  
EXTEND EITHER THE SLIGHT RISK OR MARGINAL RISK AREAS EAST OF THE  
APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR  
WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS.  
  
BECAUSE THIS IS A LONG-TERM EVENT, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED  
ALONG OR NEAR THE AXIS WHICH HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CURRENT  
DAY 2 AND DAY 3 RAINFALL FORECAST, REFER TO QPF AND DISCUSSIONS  
FROM THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT  
THURSDAY AND BEYOND.  
  

after this period a little pattern change...perhaps ..models move a strong high down form Canada...flattening the flow

however, models seem to want to rebuild the pattern somewhat (more like strong southern jet) but perhaps more south in the 10-15 day time frame...but some of the members hit you guys again

the first graphic is the 10 day mean and the last is the full 16 day run..the increase in t he second image is mostly from some members nailing you guys again