3 hours ago, Jentz85 said:

575.15 at 2000z

 

54710cfs out

144084cfs in

 

 

They've brought the outflow down some as well. Might just be trying to stabilize it.

oh boy.....Is all the outflow  eroding away part of the embankment beneath the power plant? is that why the lowered it?...see this video taken today (or yesterday) maybe at the 48 second mark in the trees...and also see what appears to be a wet spot dark green above that. also I winder why they reduced flows from the spillway but turned the power plant back on??

edit: in the 2018 drone video there appears to be erosion there too...or at least more rocky then dirt

edit again:  did a tree tip over there from  outflow erosion?

1 hour ago, Jentz85 said:

575.15 at 2000z

 

54710cfs out

144084cfs in

 

 

They've brought the outflow down some as well. Might just be trying to stabilize it.

I noticed that too.....not up to the 60K predicted ..it could because 5K is going out of Dale Hollow now??

center Hill very high too

going to be a long spring...  

Corps turns attention to drawing down storage reservoirs

https://www.dvidshub.net/news/311799/corps-turns-attention-drawing-down-storage-reservoirs

Lake Cumberland

lake at 754.48... stilling rising .. up .13 last  hour outflow 55,000 ..inflow still 140K....peaked in the low 200K's!! inflow should match outflow sometime tomorrow...If it follows the slope graph of the other cycles this week..

here is a pic of the dam today and I noticed something interesting....notice what appears to be brown discolored water to the left of the power plant along the wall...after. that I will post a youtube drone video from 2018 (see 12 second mark) that also has the spillway gates opened...both after the repairs ....there is no discolored water  in the 2018 video.....

this discolored water could be seepage ..  

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Mud slide north of Nashville on 1-24 has it shut down

 

media reporting it may be closed for a week

models trending wetter for the two systems later in  the week..looks like 1 to 1.25 average wide  but then huge highs after that??

cumberland now at 754.27 out flow now 53,000...still rising fast  (about .15 foot/hr average)

On the upper/mid cumberland other lakes such as Dale Hollow and center point getting closer to capacity..so very little flood storage for spring rains

wolf creek Dam.. 6 feet from spillover when this was taken a couple hours ago. "spillover" is the gap between the road and the top of the gates,,hard to see here

should fall short

4 hours ago, Jentz85 said:

Here ya go. riverstatus.usace.army.mil/#


.

taking the calculations to the past few hours... if you divide the difference between the inflow and outflow ..for every 7400 net difference the lake rises .01 feet per hour

so  the lake is at about 754 or will be soon...taking the opposite ..if there is 60,000 outflow and ZERO inflow  that's  a drop of .081 an hour or 1.95 feet per day... in  a week that's a drop of 13.65 feet

so if the lake magically stops rising at 754 (it won't , maybe crest at 755)  and all  the inflow magically stops (it won't of course)   

the lake level will be only be down to 740.35 feet in a week....any pattern change to wet after that would be trouble...

the old record was set in May. after most of the wetter spring was over ...this is only Feb

going to be a long battle

and looking at the past 24 hours precip most of the basin did indeed get the gap in between the heavy Stuff in eastern TN .and the stuff further up into KY

Lake cumberland

Lake up 3.88 feet 24 hours ending at 4am or .16 per hour average,,record outflow is occurring today  increase today to 60,000 about noon

less then 7 feet from spilling over..the increased outflow should slow the rise later..and inflows could be peaking about right now since it stopped raining..

2/24/2019    3 AM    752.72          45,120  + .18
2/24/2019    4 AM    752.96          45,320    +.24
2/24/2019    5 AM    753.12          45,320  +.16

3 hours ago, Jentz85 said:

Looks like the record has been broken.


.

190,000 cfs inflow !!. where did you get this info.?...been looking for it online

the outflow of 60,000 is exepcted later today...they are lucky they didn't get trained like Knoxville yesterday morning...

like I said the other day they should have increased outflows earlier (25 to 35K-40) two days ago...If they would have done that ..60K wouldn't be needed perhaps

thanks

 NWS sites and TVA site is down or very very slow

as of 500pm   4.54 at TYS according to climate report

The TN river At Savannah TN crest  expected at 399.97 ..2nd highest crest on record

the amazing thing is the crest of record was just 1.5  feet higher in 1897.....before the flood  control

the Cumberland basin may have gotten  a minimum ..with more north and the heavy Eastern TN stuff SE

46 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

 

 

I posted about lake yesterday or the day before wondering if it was overflowing,,, of course that goes into Cumberland 

Cumberland: out flow increased to 40,000 at 3pm.  Level 750.52 an increase of .18 last hour 

1.3 feet from record and 9.48 from overspill

a kink in the convective system may Cause training up the river below the dam and then into the watershed

got to be some heated discussions going on

WKYM 101.7
18 mins · 
According to a release today from the US Army Corps of Engineers, water is being released now at a faster rate than at any time during the 60 plus year history of Wolf Creek Dam.
The largest amount of water ever released from the dam is 40,000 cubic feet per second in January 1974.
Releases at Wolf Creek Dam have been increased to 45,000 cubic feet per second this afternoon, and releases are expected to increase to 60,000 cfs by noon Sunday, Feb. 24.
Inflows into Lake Cumberland overnight were larger than forecast and the lake’s flood storage is quickly reaching its capacity, prompting water managers to move up the timetable for the increased releases. Impacts are expected in areas near the river downstream, especially in the Cumberland River reach in Kentucky from Rowena to Burkesville.

****BREAKING***

according to local media...They are afraid of Lake Cumberland overflow and now are dumping 45,000 cfs this hour and plan to increase it to 60,000 by noon tommorrow

Lake cumberland rising  faster now...NWS guage data shows/predicts even more inflow then the other day..the River at Cumberland falls at this time is even higher  then it was when those photos were taken...looks like 1 to 1.5 inches of rain feel over the past 36 hours....the steady moderate type

at least they didn't get trained yet...could be they get lucky if the 2nd wave goes north? and they missed the knoxville stuff south

2/23/2019    9 AM    749.61    34,740
2/23/2019    10 AM    749.74      34,760  +.13
2/23/2019    11 AM    749.90      34,860   +.16

got to watch for any development of clusters (more heavy rain) ahead of the main line this afternoon with heavy rain...HRRR hinting at it

 NWS data is slow to update but 3.30 inches at Knoxville airport as of couple of hours ago

edit: 3.59 now

reissued
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
124 PM EST SAT FEB 23 2019  
   
..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR KNOXVILLE AND KNOX COUNTY TENNESSEE  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS EXTENDED THE  
  
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
  KNOX COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...  
  
* UNTIL 430 PM EST.  
  
* AT 122 PM EST, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED CONTINUED FLASH   
  FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAVE   
  ALREADY FALLEN AND AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE   
  NEXT TWO HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND EMERGENCY   
  MANAGEMENT STRONGLY SUGGESTS MOTORIST LIMIT TRAVEL AS MUCH AS   
  POSSIBLE. MANY ROADWAYS ARE IMPASSABLE AT THIS TIME, AND WILL   
  REQUIRE SEVERAL HOURS FOR WATERS TO RECEDE AFTER THE RAINFALL ENDS.  
  
THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR KNOX COUNTY. THIS IS A   
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!  

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Just incredible line aimed like an arrow at Knoxville. 

 

 

alot of  times these things start to weaken about this time of day of the LLJ weakens and the focus become surface based activity...but in this case the over all  system is strengthening so it may cancel that out

If some places in Knox  county already have 5 inches...I think a shot at 10 inches isn't out of the question by days end if  that train sets up over them

meanwhile ( at least no training there)

AMESTOWN, Ky. (WKYT) – A press release from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers says that, with Lake Cumberland levels rising, the Wolf Creek Dam will step up releases to historic levels, with the potential for flooding in low-lying areas downstream.

According to the release, Wolf Creek Dam is currently discharging water at 36,200 cubic feet per second (cfs.) Now, engineers plan to increase discharge to 40,000 cfs as early as Sunday, and up to 45,000 cfs 48 hours after that. The largest amount of water ever released from the dam is 40,000 cfs, back in January of 1974.

airport up to 3.30..( .35 last hr)...they may be just to far south to avoid the incoming train?

was there an emergency toned out alert on on the EBS?? or not

that is why the other poster said he has never seen and Areal Flood Warning  go straight to a PDS flash flood warning..there should have been a "normal" flash flood warning issued in between ...you know when cars were getting strandard and fire trucks sinking

anyway stay safe

3 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

FFW and Emergency are different things.  The warning has been in place officially since 7:16 this morning.

no there was only an flood warning...not a flash flood warning..a don't thunk an Areal Flood Warning  is "toned" out 

usually there is a flash flood warning issued ...then when things get extreme a "Flash flood emergency"

3 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

Flash Flood Emergency issued for Knox County.

a flash flood warning should have been issued long ago

another .35 last HR at airport.. 2.95 total

Don't think TVA, or anybody for that matter, expected this..the levels of the TN river are spiking up much faster then the gradual increase over the next few days

I can only imagine what this is doing the the tributary lakes

This is what i was cocerned with for Lake cumberland today...but they are only getting sideswiped