ouch MI

205 new deaths  with 1279 new cases

IL

1465/ 68

Here is the model the WH likes to use

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

60,000 deaths .....down from 120K

the issue I see with it is that the slope may be too steep after the peak with decreasing deaths per day

plus no deaths after June 15th and only 60 total June 1-14

you can see this error in Italy ...which served as some of the original data input for the model

https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy

Italy projection for 4-9 was 384  actual 570 (plus almost 4000 new cases...)

looks like 1237 new cases in IL

73 new deaths

Just now, Hoosier said:

Going to have a 2000 day, if not today then soon.  Although these daily counts are pretty prone to error in multiple ways.  

 

Last Tuesday also had a big spike after a decline/flat weekend .. 550ish to 900ish

weekend backlog processed on Monday?

Similar trend in Europe

Michigan with another bad day

1749 new cases

118 new deaths

US daily death tally now at 1522 and counting

41 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]
  [source]

just like Italy and Spain

oh man

ISDH: 11 dead from COVID-19 at Madison County nursing home

https://www.wishtv.com/news/medical/isdh-11-dead-from-covid-19-at-madison-county-nursing-home/

The Illinois Department of Public Health announced Saturday there are 899 new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 31 additional deaths.

1 hour ago, Baum said:

I'm not a blame guy in times of crisis. The Chinese Government thing is an altogether different animal which will have to play out. 

warm humid  weather will stop the virus?

Corpses Lie For Days As Ecuador Struggles To Keep Up With COVID-19 Deaths

Ecuador is one of the smallest countries in South America but it is dealing with one of the region's worst outbreaks of COVID-19, with more than 3,100 identified infections and 120 deaths.

The epicenter of the country's outbreak is the Pacific port city of Guayaquil, where bodies are lying in the streets.

As a result, the bodies of people who have died in their homes due to COVID-19 and other illnesses often lie for days, wrapped in bed sheets and plastic and decomposing in the tropical heat as relatives watch over them.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/03/826675439/corpses-lie-for-days-as-ecuador-struggles-to-keep-up-with-covid-19-deaths

10 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Spain saw a sizeable decrease in new cases and deaths today.  It may be just another mirage but here's hoping.

not sure if that is the final total..they have several updates a day

SPRINGFIELD – The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today announced 1,209 new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 53 additional deaths.

6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Deaths per 10k population (or something similar) would be better, but I’m too lazy to do all of that...thus the easy total count.

The total count is still important too though.


.

I hear ya

if you have time a graph of IL, MI, OH would be cool for both cases and deaths since they are all pretty close in population and are in this sub forum

I saw one earlier on twitter and was going to post it here but can't find it....it shows the spike in IL and MO and the flat curve in OH

not sure what data set you are using but here is a good one ..it even has the total number of tests (state daily 4pm)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18oVRrHj3c183mHmq3m89_163yuYltLNlOmPerQ18E8w/htmlview?usp=sharing#

Just now, snowlover2 said:

I think it has to do with our Governor closing everything down really quick more than anything else. He's wasn't messing around with this.

perhaps....he was very aggressive despite  the relatively low numbers 

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

A graph I've been adding to, showing total fatalities in the hardest hit countries...

the Y-axis should be deaths per 10,000 people or something....98% of people are comparing raw numbers .....Italy has 1/5 the population of the USA

deaths per 1,000,000 people

Italy 218

Spain 201

UK  35

USA 15

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

so far OH and been doing better then IL and MI

it could be that there isn't one HUGE population center (ie Chicago. Detroit) and therefor OH is less dense in any urban center(has more  metros rather then one huge one)

but OH also cancelled the primary and MI and IL did not

IL MAY not be in that bad of shape compared to some locations

488 new cases (19% increase)which is a drop from yesterday. ..yet almost 5000 more tests then then yesterday...(30% increase)

also about a 10% positive rate..much lower then NY

time will tell if this trend continues

after the first wave this morning,  latest RAP and HRRR have the training  more south into AL..missing the TN valley

3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Obed Flooding at the confluence of the little Emory:

 

 

Judge Branch coming off of Frozen Head:

 

Highway 62 at the Emory River:

 

crest 33.88 at Oakdale

1) 42.30 ft on 03/23/1929
(2) 38.71 ft on 12/23/1990
(3) 38.70 ft on 05/28/1973
(4) 38.70 ft on 03/23/1991
(5) 34.20 ft on 12/30/1969
(6) 34.10 ft on 04/04/1977
(7) 33.00 ft on 02/13/1948

XCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1057 AM EST WED FEB 05 2020  
  
DAY 1  
VALID 16Z WED FEB 05 2020 - 12Z THU FEB 06 2020  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM FAR  
NORTHWEST ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TO EASTERN TENNESSEE...  
  
1600 UTC UPDATE  
  
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS UPGRADED TO MODERATE OVER FAR NORTHWEST  
ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TO EASTERN TENNESSEE.  THE 1200 UTC ARW  
AND NMMB TRENDED HEAVIER FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY HOURS  
OF THURSDAY ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THE LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE IS  
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINS MOVING  
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF  
THURSDAY FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.  STREAM  
FLOWS AS PER THE NATIONAL WATER MODEL ARE HIGH ACROSS THESE AREAS  
WITH HI RES CONSENSUS FOR 2-4"+ OF RAIN ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH  
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD 1200 UTC THURSDAY. IN AREAS OF  
TRAINING...HOURLY TOTALS OF 1-1.5"+ POSSIBLE.  
  MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0034  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1201 PM EST WED FEB 05 2020  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MS...NORTHERN AL...SOUTH-CENTRAL &  
EASTERN TN...EXTREME NW GA...  
  
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  
  
VALID 051700Z - 052230Z  
  
SUMMARY...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CURRENTLY TRAINING THROUGH  
SATURATED GROUNDS MAY POSE SOME ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS, IN  
ADVANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON  
INCREASING FLASH FLOODING RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
  
DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW VA  
ACROSS CENTRAL TN INTO FAR NE MS, WHERE A WEAK SURFACE INFLECTION  
IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST.  A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE OVER E  
AR INTO W TN, WITHIN A SMALL WEDGE OF REDUCED UPPER-LEVEL  
FLOW/INCREASED DIFFLUENCE IN CENTRAL TN, SUPPORTS THIS WAVE  
LIFTING NORTH AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS E MS/AL AND GA.  
 AS SUCH INCREASED FLUX MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS ENHANCED SHOWERS  
FROM SE TN ACROSS N AL, SUPPORTING GREATER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT  
AND INCREASED CLOUD TOP COOLING NOTED IN GOES-E 10.3UM, WITH TOPS  
COOLING BELOW -65C ACROSS NW AL AND SE TN ATTM. LOW TO MID-60S TDS  
AND SOME WEAK FILTERED INSOLATION THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAS  
HELPED TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THIS AREA RECENTLY  
WITH MLCAPES NOSING ABOVE 500 J/KG INTO N AL WITH GRADIENT UP/OVER  
1000 J/KG BUILDING FROM THE SW.  THIS IS IN COMBINATION OF  
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT ALSO INCREASED THETA-E AIR WITH TDS  
EVEN UP TO 70 ACROSS CENTRAL MS ATTM.   
  
CURRENTLY, THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS AXIS FROM NW AL INTO SE TN ARE  
CAPABLE OF 1-1.25"/HR RATES WITH ISOLATED RATES UP TO 1.5"/HR WITH  
THE STRONGEST CORES.  MEAN STEERING FLOW SHOWS DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL  
FLOW TO SUPPORT TRAINING, ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH A SLOW NORTHWARD  
TREND/PROPAGATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIFTING NORTHWARD OF THE  
SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE, PERHAPS LIMITING BEST/IDEAL  
TRAINING A BIT.  STILL, GIVEN LAST 24HR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA,  
PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO THE CUMBERLAND  
PLATEAU...LOWERED FFG VALUES AND SATURATED SOILS EXIST ALLOWING  
FOR INCREASED/NEARLY COMPLETE HYDROPHOBIC RUN-OFF OF THESE 1-2"  
TOTALS.  AS SUCH, THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH  
FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS N AL AND S-CENT/SE TN.   
STILL, REGARDLESS OF FLOODING WITH THESE CELLS, THEY WILL CONTINUE  
TO FURTHER SATURATE THE GROUNDS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED  
BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING.  
  
STRONGER HEIGHT-FALLS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER POSITIVE  
TILT FULL-LATITUDE SYNOPTIC TROF WILL SUPPORT INCREASING UPPER  
LEVEL JET DYNAMIC ASCENT AND DPVA TO OVER-WASH THE AREA.  THIS  
WILL SUPPORT FURTHER UPSTREAM/BACKBUILDING REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR  
ALONG/NEAR THE SURFACE INFLECTION IN N MS, WITH SOUTHWARD  
EXPANSION AFTER DARK.  STILL, GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE  
WAVE, ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE/THETA-E  
FLUX...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG TOWARD 19Z,  
ALLOWING FOR STRONGER/BROADER CONVECTIVE CORES.  THESE CORES WILL  
CROSS N MS/N AL INTO TN LATER THIS EVENING INCREASING THE  
PROBABILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE GROUND CONDITIONS ARE  
BEING COMPROMISED CURRENTLY (IF NOT EXCEEDED ALREADY BY 20Z)

the start of a 2020 redux? 

Both the 12z Euro and 18z GFS have huge amounts 8+ inches over TN over the next 360 hours..GFS 14 in

a dumping the next 2 days..a decent break but then very active

and soil moisture is currently already high (70-80 percentile)

5 inch contours back on 7 day  click for this mornings update

The MS river at Baton Rouge, without the rain factored in, crest 44 feet .... top 5

Expected Rainfall Amounts Thursday Night through Sunday Afternoon. Total rainfall amounts will generally range from around 2.5 inches to around 3.5 inches. These expected rainfall amounts may have an affect on area rivers. These expected rainfall amounts are preliminary and subject to change.