janetjanet998

lake cumberland 749.65 feet down .95 or .04/hr (inflow increased form rain slowed the fall)

if the lake falls 1.2 ft per day we will be at 746 at 10z friday near the start of the "wet period"

Center hill dam (the other big pool) also still very full and the rains have also slowed its fall

its  at 670.6 ft , it peaked at 678 or so..the top of the spillway is 785   on Feb 18th it was at 635

so it is still 35 feet higher then 3 weeks ago and only 15 feet from the top of the spillway  (or secondary overflow)

Lake Cumberland at this time is back down to the old record high 

it fell 1.38 ft 24 hours ending at 5am..or .058/hr  assuming a 1.5 foot drop per day 

the lake will be at 744.37 at 11z friday  ..near the start of the wet period..the also seem to be SLOWLY backing down the outflow in baby steps..now 57,100 down from 59,800 

looks like a general 1/2 to inch over most of TN today

heavier south of the TVA watershed

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

So how about that Euro overnight?

Looks like it may be drier for this system in East TN than even yesterday's, if the Euro is right. A general 0.2 - 0.7 across both watersheds. 6z 12k NAM further north, but 3k develops the convection parallel to the Gulf and keeps higher totals further south like the Euro. The key seems to be just where that convective precip. develops. If it is further south and parallel to the Gulf it might cut off some of the precip in our area. 

Will it be right? Will heavier precip. seemingly magically appear on radar as the system moves in? I guess we'll know tomorrow. 

 

12z NAM shifted south ..still hits E TN go0d but not Cumberland so much

at 5am lake cumberland 753.25 down down 1.35 ft or .056/hr past 24 hours

odds are the southern solutions will pan out...

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

And of course now the shortwave is pulling this morning's rain further north. I give up. 

yep..nice "dry" spell

 yesterdays rains missed the cumberland watershed but not TN river........

HSV  : HUNTSVILLE AIRPORT  :    1.12  
MSL  : MUSCLE SHOALS ARPT  :   0.91 

KCHA   .48

TVS .25

lake Cumberloand at 5am down 1 foot the past 24 hours or  .042/hr  754.6 at 5am

still building a wall near/under that tower...locals are saying truck after truck of rocks still coming in today .I wonder if the are prepping it for even higher releases 

Cumberland at 5am 755.61 down .65 feet or .027/hr the past 24 hours

some light rain today

weekend system may slow/stall fall

models continue to hint at more active set up 9-10 days

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Norris finally fell enough to reopen schools here tomorrow, though some roads are still closed. It's 10 feet above full summer pool. Even with the spill ways wide open they could only let water out at about 1/2 the rate it was coming in until today, when it finally dropped below the output. It's only supposed to fall 6 inches over the next few days though. Any more rain will be too much rain.

Tennessee Valley Authority
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River Update: We are increasing releases out of tributary dams to recover flood storage in preparation for the next rain event, so you can expect to see above normal river flows below those dams. (1-3)

Further downstream on Kentucky Lake, we continue to work with the Army Corps of Engineers to control releases out of Kentucky Dam because of flooding on the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. Water levels on Kentucky Lake could rise as much as eight feet above summer pool. (3-3)

22 hours ago, TellicoWx said:

EURO keeps shifting the axis of heaviest precip more N...something to keep an eye on over next 72 hrs.

new EURO looks pumped and north.........?

4 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

 

now there are 3 steps they will take to lower impacts if they have  to protect places like New Orleans and Baton Rouge but more on those later

 

they are going to do step 1 today..the most common...open Bonnet Carré Spillway above New orleans

step two would be to divert flow at Red river landing above Baton Rouge ..The red river..( the one in Tx and Ok) used to flow into the MS river at that point....but now is diverted south into the Gulf...since the MS river is at a higher elevation they can divert alot of water there...

the third and most extreme is to blow the levee on the west bank right below Cairo IL...this floods much of the low lying area of the boothill of MO..they only have done this 2 times..last in 2011..and i think once in the 1930's..it can only be used once a season as the bowl will fill up

also see this article they said 1.250 million cfs per second is the flow that triggers step one..way down south

as of right now  a huge 478,000 cfs is coming out of Barkley (cumberland)and Kentucky Lake(TN basin) alone..the lakes are rising well above summers pools becasue inflow is still higher...Barkley is releasing 136,000 cfs into the OH/MS    Cumberland is 59,000 of that..

in a perfect would Cumberland would be releasing ZERO..and Barkley and Kentucky much lower

NEW ORLEANS (WWL-TV) — For the third time in four years the Bonnet Carré Spillway will be opened Wednesday to the projected flow of water down the Mississippi River, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.

According to the Corps of Engineers web site, this will be the first time that the spillway has been opened in consecutive years. The Corps anticipates opening approximately 38 bays Wednesday, possibly increasing it to 200 bays over time.

The Spillway is used to divert water flow from the Mississippi River and send it toward Lake Pontchartrain when the water flow gets too high.

Boyett says that projected flows indicate an opening in the middle of next week, likely Thursday, February 28.

The ‘trigger’ for an opening is a projected river flow of 1.25 million cubic feet per second, which is what the New Orleans river levees are designed to handle. Anything above that level means the spillway is opened.

The spillway has opened several times in recent years, including: 2008, 2011, 2016 and 2018.

https://www.klfy.com/news/louisiana/update-corps-to-open-bonnet-carre-spillway-wednesday/1808660331

Cumberland at 5am 756.26  down .26 (or .01/hr) past 24 hours

the OHIO and Mississippi rivers are now moderate to major flooding in many places...on the lower MS..may not crest for weeks...

that is without any more rain factored in..

the NWS flood forecast for the  mid MS river came out yesterday....lots of snow in the upper basin..soil moisture and stream flow high..major flooding likley

going to be trouble for a long time

now there are 3 steps they will take to lower impacts if they have  to protect places like New Orleans and Baton Rouge but more on those later

got to get these lake levels down  ASAP..

need a drought

.the incoming rain won't help

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

EURO keeps shifting the axis of heaviest precip more N...something to keep an eye on over next 72 hrs.

I hope you get your snow..but your area obviously doesn't need the precip

this 10 day period is the  "dry" time ...

models hint at a wetter SW flow returning in the 10-12 day range

sounds like that are going to keep the flow at 58,700 for at least two weeks

Phil Pendleton
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@philtvnews
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Cumberland County Emergency Mgt. Director says they’ve having to take supplies to some folks by boat who are trapped in their homes because the rising Cumberland River. And it will be that way for 2 weeks because of the water being taken out of Lake Cumberland. More at 4-6 @WKYT

------------

example of the issue: if the lake drops  and average of .06 an hour for 2 weeks that only about 736 feet (-20 feet)

On 2/25/2019 at 6:33 AM, Holston_River_Rambler said:

https://www.weather.gov/mrx/hydroevent?platform=hootsuite 

MRX write up

TN river tributary reservoirs total storage ..above summer pool

https://lakeinfo.tva.gov/htbin/genplots?guidecurve+79

1 hour ago, Jentz85 said:

I sent you some documents via PM.


.

just skimmed over them..thanks...will review more later

I did see that the old outflow record in 1974 was when the lake wasn't that high...perhaps they had different rules back then and never let the lake get as high as today?

I know on lake Travis (austin tx), last fall  there was a a huge flood....many people on local forums complained  that they let the lake get to high in the summer for recreational use these days.....

WKYM 101.7
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The level of Lake Cumberland  peaked at 756.52 feet above sea level this morning. That’s about five feet above the previous high level set in 1984.  The US Army Corps of Engineers continues its record setting release of water through the dam at 58,740 CF per second.

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3 hours ago, Jentz85 said:

Had it reached 760, is that just an uncontrolled release over the top of the gates?


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yes as far as I know..... the Corps have a poor history of being honest about the dangers of the Dam....this is why some people question them

muddy water near the power plant was a major concern in the past because that was a sign of seepage.....hopefully all the muddy water i pointed out the other day was just from the bank eroding

in a you tube video(see below) it said concerns in the past included muddy water in the tailwater,  sinkholes near the power plant, a wet stop on the opposite end of the earth part (way down from the dam, and river bank being unstable (not sure what that means)

The had a similar issue at center hill dam too which they recently repaired

'Unprecedented' water levels at Lake Cumberland raise residents' fears the dam will fail

eavy rains and flooding that have pushed Kentucky’s Lake Cumberland water levels to a record high are creating the biggest test yet for a dam that was considered highly vulnerable to failure before a $594 million repair was completed five years ago.

The rain-swollen lake on Monday forced the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to release a record 58,730 cubic feet of water per second from the Wolf Creek Dam, causing some flooding along the Cumberland River in low-lying areas downstream.

So far the dam shows no signs of problems, said Corps spokesman Bill Peoples

Residents worry because in 2007, the Corps lowered water levels in Lake Cumberland amid fears that a weakened Wolf Creek Dam might fail and cause perilous flooding as far away as Nashville. The nearly mile-long earthen dam, built atop cavern- and fissure-riddled limestone, was shored up during seven years of construction.

“These lake levels are unprecedented,” Peoples said. “We’re confident that barrier wall is doing the job it was designed to do.”

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/2019/02/26/kentucky-lake-cumberland-high-water-levels-from-flooding-rain/2983258002/

go to 1:22 mark here to see problem areas 

looks like we have a crest of 756.51 or so at Cumberland

Clay Philpot
6 hrs · Edited
Tony Wright I just found a video someone took today and paused it for a screen grab. Looks like they are making good progress.

facebook video on the ground yesterday...

Darrell Littrell was live.
on Sunday · 
Wolf Creek Dam.
60,000 cubic feet per sec of water being released. They're hauling Rock and boulders the water is up so high that it's washing the bank out where the electric Transformers are

confirmed bringing in truck after truck of gravel and boulders building a wall

looks like a crest in the next few hours

another pic of the river bank .....from a distance.....see all that white stuff near the transmission tower....gravel?  sandbags?  tarp?.also is the other pine tree gone?

https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&q=lake cumberand&src=typd

edit:  another picture has one of those non-pine trees laying on its side and a tractor putting rocks down

so it seems they are tearing out all the trees and putting rocks down 

take an hour ago

Got to look fast but it looks like they have continued to shore up that bank...looks like more gravel is down and maybe a barrier?  lots of gravel now hard to tell se 11 sec mark

there is still muddy water coming off of it  looks like

21 minutes ago, Jentz85 said:

Wolf Creek hasn't updated for 4 hours now.


.

the NWS river gauge is still updating.. still .04 or .05 per hr from 11:45z to 15:45z..

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph_to_xml.php?gage=wlck2&output=tabular

I'm not sure why this gauge is about 2/3 of a foot lower then TVA and Corps page...

I have seen this lower report on several media/ social sites at times..the higher number seems to be the correct one in mentioned  the PR's

edit:  11am updated 756.26  inflow 81,000..otflow creeping up about 100cfs an now record 58,640

for some reason its not updating the Wolf Creek numbers.. 

but using the 6am number 756.07

time for more math...  here is how dire the long term flood storage is...

lets assume they keep the outflow at 58,000 for two weeks...will they? can they?

lets assume inflow average 15,000 (likley higher)

the difference is 43,000 divide that by that 7400 number it a fall of .056 per hour 1.34 feet a day

in this unrealistic best case scenario the lake won't be back down to 740 until 12 days from now...Sat Mar 9th

1 hour ago, Jentz85 said:

 

Makes sense now why people were saying on Facebook they have closed off all the area below the dam near the power plant.



.

 

Have you seen any info about what is  going on there?  any talk on facebook?  I did see a pic that they have that area taped of with caution tape now..with a guard

any new pics today might give more clues

another interesting thing is that they turned the power plant back on (was zero outflow for days) and lowered the spillway outflow yesterday...any flow out of the power plant is less  turbulent..but what were they seeing to lower the spillway outflow all of a sudden?

also the tailwater is now high from the channel getting backed up, and getting higher( although is seems to be leveling out) ..

higher tailwater=more erosion 

at what level does it flood  the power plant?...same issues at Oroville when all the debris in the channel and increased flows backed the water up, almost  lost power plant..lots of sandbagging and pumping

http://riverstatus.usace.army.mil/group/LRN/Lakes/WLCK2-WOLF_CREEK

1 hour ago, weathertree4u said:

Personally speaking, I do not think that the current time period will be the big issue. Heading into the Spring, I feel like we are in a bad place. North of Nashville we got close to 4" yesterday evening which, of course, as in the East TN area, flash flooding. We need a large scale pattern change, I mean large scale. I dont want a drought but seems like we are over due for one!

I agree and the situation may be grim: I will focus on Cumberland....rather then TN river...perhaps someone else could do that?

1) Laurel Lake is now full....now 3000 cfs was pushed thru the power plant at times...but the max inflow In these events were in the 10-15K range....with the 1800 over flow now and the power plant it is releasing about 5K outflow into cumberland....but with the bowl  now full...if we have a repeat,  8-12K of extra inflow per hour would be flowing into Cumberland in stead of filling up the bowl it overflows at 1018.5 feet..it will fall below that but next time less space before it overflows

2) Cumberland lake looks to make it to 756 at least now....it is clear this evening there are worried about hillside erosion under/near the transmission towers..at outflow 58,000..any increase in outflow would increase that erosion..if that tower tips they might loose the power plant controls and./or the spillway gate controls...??? not sure about that though...went back and looked at the video...if appears they are trying to fill in the eroded area with gravel

The had similar issues at oroville on the main spillway ...they were worried about back erosion cutting way at a vital transmission tower so they had to decrease outflow on the damaged main spillway..from 65,000 to 50,000 bfs and in the meantime the lake overflowed and went over the emergency spillway witch started back cutting that away....and almost eroded out the side of the Dam...in that case, since they had no choice,  they increased flow to 100,000 on the main spillway to get the level level lower ASAP....the tower ended up being fine in hindsight 

3) I mentioned this before but according to the math (at least at these levels) on the US corp page a .01 inch change in lake level hour is about 7400 cfs..for example if inflow is 100,000 and outflow is 26000 the lake would rise  .10 that hour..  (100-26)/10  well the flip Side is true...if outflow is 60,000  and inflow ZERO the lake would fall .081 an hour...or 1.95 a day or 13,61 in a week..  well of course inflow won't be zero but in a week if that actually happened would only be down to 740 feet..of course that won't happen

4) max inflow in this event was over 220,000 Cfs.....without the Dam or flood pool...thats  coming downstream next time

5) Dale Hollow and Center Hill very high too

6) any rain that falls later in the week will slow the fall of these lakes

7) Euro SE storm in day 11 ?  see day 10..(then I assume dry after that)

it is indeed eroding the shore line and hat tree is indeed tiipped. over....in fact in this video   there is construction equipment ,looks like they are trying to use grout ....

transmission tower concerns?

see at the 21 second mark'