janetjanet998

an update still says radar indicated 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
756 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017  
  
TXC251-160215-  
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170116T0215Z/  
JOHNSON TX-  
756 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CST FOR  
NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY...  
      
AT 754 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO   
WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF ALVARADO.  CASA RADAR SHOWS THE   
CIRCULATION APPROACHING FM-1807 JUST EAST OF ALVARADO.  IT WILL   
APPROACH HIGHWAY 67 BETWEEN ALVARADO AND VENUS OVER THE NEXT FEW   
MINUTES.  
  

TOR warned again

also a TOR warned cell in kerr county 

WFUS54 KFWD 160053  
TORFWD  
TXC217-251-160130-  
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0005.170116T0053Z-170116T0130Z/  
  
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
653 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  NORTHWESTERN HILL COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 730 PM CST  
  
* AT 652 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WHITNEY, OR 14  
  MILES WEST OF HILLSBORO, MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

still on ground

moving at a decent clip will start to affect southern metroplex here soon

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
645 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017  
  
TXC035-217-160100-  
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170116T0100Z/  
BOSQUE TX-HILL TX-  
645 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR  
NORTHEASTERN BOSQUE AND WEST CENTRAL HILL COUNTIES...  
      
AT 645 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE WHITNEY  
STATE PARK, OR 16 MILES WEST OF HILLSBORO, MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  

TOG

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
634 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017  
  
TXC035-217-160100-  
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-170116T0100Z/  
BOSQUE TX-HILL TX-  
634 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR  
NORTHEASTERN BOSQUE AND SOUTHWESTERN HILL COUNTIES...  
      
AT 634 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE WHITNEY  
STATE PARK, OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLIFTON, MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.   

I think is a second TOR warned storm....like Indy said radar doesn't have polygons

edit: looks like the same storm

edit2: not sure

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
610 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  CENTRAL BOSQUE COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 645 PM CST  
      
* AT 609 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR CLIFTON, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.   

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 8  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
600 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 600 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE  
  ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE  
  
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NEAR THE  
I-35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF  
AN EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING SQUALL LINE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS.  
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY  
OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ASIDE FROM DAMAGING WINDS.  
  

O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0001.170115T2327Z-170116T0000Z/  
  
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
527 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN CORYELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 600 PM CST  
      
* AT 526 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR FORT GATES, OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GATESVILLE,  
  MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.   
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.   
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.   

  
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE   
  
VALID 152320Z - 160115Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH  
CENTRAL TEXAS.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL,  
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  WATCH MAY BE  
REQUIRED TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.  
  
DISCUSSION...OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY  
INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM  
CENTRAL TX, NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER.  MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY  
IS CELLULAR IN NATURE WITH SEVERAL DEEPER UPDRAFTS HAVING THE  
CHARACTERISTICS OF SUPERCELLS.  ONE STORM HAS A LONGER HISTORY OF  
ROTATION AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS WILLIAMSON/BELL/CORYELL COUNTIES.   
WEAK SUPERCELLS ARE NOW EVOLVING NORTHWEST OF WACO OVER  
HAMILTON/BOSQUE COUNTIES.  SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY IS STILL QUITE  
WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION BUT DEW POINTS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND  
NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION COULD YIELD A SMALL BUT INCREASING THREAT  
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.  EVEN SO, THE PRIMARY RISK SHOULD BE LOCALLY  
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  THIS REGION IS BEING  
CONSIDERED FOR A WATCH.  

storms near WACO (where dews are 64-65) getting that look

almost like 2 warmfronts one moving north and another creeping west

storm NW of Del Rio nice hook

3 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said:

i thought AT&T stadium was a domed stadium.

oh yeah  LOL....what was i thinking....

1 hour ago, Roy said:

Awfully cold and misty still here in DFW.

low-mid 60's dew points on the SE side of the metroplex at 22z

I suspect the game might have  a few lightning delays after the half

San Angelo radar seems to be up

at 20:46z

still a slight risk although noted metroplex threat

.SUMMARY  
  
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
TONIGHT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERN  
OKLAHOMA. A FEW TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL ARE  
ANTICIPATED.  
   
..20Z UPDATE  
  
THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TX IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE  
PRIOR OUTLOOK ACROSS THIS AREA HAS BEEN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EASTWARD  
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. THE  
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK REMAINS CONFINED BY A  
SHALLOW COLD AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST  
OK. FOR MORE NEAR-TERM METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS (THROUGH ~2130Z) ON  
THE DEVELOPING SEVERE RISK ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX, SEE MESOSCALE  
DISCUSSION 52.  
  
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ONGOING OVER PARTS OF EAST TX IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME MAY  
BECOME SURFACE BASED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW TO MID 60S  
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT  
NORTHWARD INTO THE METROPLEX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WARM FRONT  
LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN  
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR  
CONVECTION AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH TX IN  
THE 00-03Z TIMEFRAME. HAVE ACCORDINGLY MADE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO  
THE 5% TORNADO PROBABILITIES IN/AROUND THE METROPLEX TO ACCOUNT FOR  
THIS SCENARIO.  
  
..GLEASON.. 01/15/2017  

San Angelo radar is down

19z HRRR has almost discrete rotating cells over /mid central texas with decent Helicity swaths

SPC not to bullish with tornado potential

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1257 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TX  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 151857Z - 152130Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD  
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE THERE IS SOME  
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN  
SEVERE RISK, THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY  
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
  
DISCUSSION...ARCS OF CONVECTION ARE SPREADING EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TX, WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG DCVA PRECEDING  
AN UPPER CYCLONE EMERGING OVER THE TX TRANS-PECOS REGION, AND AT THE  
LEADING EDGE OF AN ATTENDANT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM/DRY SLOT.  
ANTECEDENT CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO  
MODIFY, WITH A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND VICINITY. TWO-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AROUND  
2.0-3.5 MB HIGHLIGHT THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING A 30-40  
KT LOW-LEVEL JET, INDICATED BY AREA VAD WIND PROFILES. THIS WILL  
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT  
SEVERAL HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER CYCLONE EMERGES OVER THE  
PLAINS. AS A RESULT, HIGHER THETA-E AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY --  
PRESENTLY CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S -- WILL  
CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHWARD. WITH MODEST DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS AIR  
MASS, INFLOW FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE  
AFOREMENTIONED ARCS OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME  
SURFACE-BASED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
  
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SEVERE RISK -- AIDED BY 45-55 KT OF  
EFFECTIVE SHEAR COMBINING WITH 500-1250 J/KG OF MLCAPE NEAR AND  
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY -- WILL INCREASE IN THE 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME,  
AND DEVELOP EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD. A QUASI-LINEAR MODE MAY TEND TO  
SUPPORT PRIMARILY A SEVERE-WIND RISK. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENTLY STEEP  
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY PROMOTE AN ISOLATED SEVERE-HAIL RISK --  
PARTICULARLY WITH LINE-EMBEDDED/LEADING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. AMPLE  
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO, THOUGH THE  
UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF LINE-RELATED OUTFLOW, COMBINED WITH THE  
ONGOING INCIPIENT STAGES OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION, CAST  
DOUBT ON A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO RISK. 

latest SPC outlook

kickoff at 2140z game should be over by 0115z or so....unless there is a weather delay (lightning)

..PORTIONS OF TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA  
  
MID/LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN  
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW NEARING THE EL PASO/FAR WEST TX  
VICINITY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD AND INCREASINGLY TAKE  
ON A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS  
SYSTEM, 30-45 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS (1-3 KM ABOVE GROUND  
LEVEL) WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT A SEASONALLY MOIST AIR MASS  
NORTHWARD, WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH  
PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX LATE TODAY, WHILE SOME MIDDLE  
60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REACH PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL  
COUNTRY. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND CONTINUED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH  
OF A WARM FRONT CAST SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT DEGREE OF  
DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY, PARTICULARLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO  
NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND FAR SOUTHERN OK.  
  
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT INCREASINGLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD  
DEVELOP BY AROUND MID-AFTERNOON INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX IN  
VICINITY OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE MOST  
NUMEROUS STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE  
EASTWARD-ADVANCING FRONT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TX. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST CAPPING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME  
FRONT-PRECEDING SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY  
VICINITIES TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. GIVEN  
THAT DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH EARLY  
EVENING, BOTH INITIAL SEMI-DISCRETE/LINE-EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN INCREASINGLY PROMINENT LINEAR MODE NEAR THE  
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE  
ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON,  
BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY  
RISKS INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS A LARGE PART OF  
WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX.  

5% TOR probs central texas

   
..SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS  
  
A MODIFYING WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN TX WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVANCE  
NORTH AS A SWATH OF 35-50 KT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES PERSIST THROUGH  
THIS AFTERNOON, AND FURTHER STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. MODEL MEAN MIXING  
RATIOS APPEAR TOO MOIST COMPARED TO 12Z DEL RIO AND CORPUS CHRISTI  
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION, A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS,  
REINFORCED BY ONGOING AND ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY,  
SHOULD LIMIT THE NORTHWEST ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR TO PARTS  
OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX. LARGEST BUOYANCY WITH AROUND  
1000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE AN  
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED.  
  
SURFACE-BASED STORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO FORM ACROSS THE PECOS  
VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS  
OVERSPREAD THE DESTABILIZING NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MODIFIED  
WARM SECTOR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD FURTHER EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND  
SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST, WITH AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE PROBABLE BY LATE  
EVENING FROM PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL OK THROUGH CENTRAL TX.   
  
30-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM  
STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. ALONG THE  
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, WHERE  
CONVECTION WOULD SEEMINGLY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO REMAIN  
DISCRETE, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VEER-BACK-VEER VERTICAL WIND  
PROFILES WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE HODOGRAPH AROUND 700 MB. THIS MAY  
TEMPER A GREATER TORNADO RISK FROM BEING REALIZED. FARTHER NORTHEAST  
ALONG THE RED RIVER, WHERE MODE SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR  
WITH TIME, THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR NORTH SURFACE-BASED  
INSTABILITY AND A CORRESPONDING DAMAGING WIND/BRIEF TORNADO RISK  
WILL EXTEND INTO OK TONIGHT.  

death toll now 132

156 still missing

JoMO,

how soon did the tornado hit after you made your last post on here

NOAA is conducting aerial surveys of Sunday's tornado path through Joplin, MO. Initial high-res imagery:

http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/joplin/

holy moly

also it looks like the walmart was 1/2 demolished

Rueters reporting 1500 missing in Joplin ...but thats likely inflated..but still even 5% of that is 75 people

also 6 deaths at the hospital

death toll now 116

ariel shots,,the first builing is/was a walmart supercenter

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/20110523/us_yblog_thelookout/terrifying-videos-of-missouri-twister-aftermath

this may be rogers hills chase tour..several have British accents

they drive by the lowes store that got hit afterwards at 1:16

they seem to be driving south of Range line road..much of the area in the beginning of the video got destroyed then(which wold be north of lowes)

more

00:05 20th street looking west ..large black tornado up the road

00:23 good will

00:26 arbys