janetjanet998

12z NAM still hits the OH river hardest with the first wave

Lake cumberland rising rapidly  738.32 as of 6am...up 1.5 feet in 18 hours

trends are still trending NW.....may be the case now where no one gets the huge 8-10 inch amounts but more get 4-5+(i.e. OH valley.too) ..of course convection could slow/stall the north movement of any warm front too

06z GFS now has the final wave max pecip north of the OH river

I have noticed WPC forecast lags trends.....and river forecast are based on WPC I think

as of 4pm today Nashville up to 8.07 for the month, including 1.24 today

FEB RECORD 12.37 in 1880

Wettest month on record MAY 2010 16.43 (most fell in 2 days)

Lake Cumberland rising again at 736.89 ..the watershed got hit pretty good today . outflow still holding at 28,000.      record 751 feet and change..  I think odds are increasing it will pass that mark....top of flood pool 760..

do you cut back on outflows to help downstream flooding? hold steady? or increase to 35K to keep the lake from rising faster?

2 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

 

but the total day 5 and day 7 not updated yet.(the sum of the above)..both should be interesting to say the least..plus that doesn't include precip before 00z this evening

 

 

 

 

click for latest. (2027z time stamp)     .YIKES

18Z NAM with yet another tick NW with the Tuesday/weds system..now nails OH River

perhaps a concern is they are expecting the huge  rain amounts in SE TN..so they are sending all this water down TN River below Pickwick into the OH river eventually?

what is the heaviest falls more NW with the increased flows from the TN too? 

Tennessee Valley Authority
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@TVAnews
 2h2 hours ago
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In the East Tenn. area we are releasing very high flows from the tributary dams (Norris, Cherokee, Douglas, etc.) and expect to make reductions as early as tomorrow to begin storing water. Continue moving tremendous amounts of water down the Tenn. River.

well the 1-3 precip updates on WPC are in

so are the 4-5 days and 6-7 

but the total day 5 and day 7 not updated yet.(the sum of the above)..both should be interesting to say the least..plus that doesn't include precip before 00z this evening

right now weak thunderstorms training up the cumberland river watershed... 

so far they haven't increased outflow at lake cumberland to the 35,000 planned...lake level down only an inch since the peak yesterday

 over 3/4 inch at nashville so far today no2 over 7.5 for the month...should break the FEB record with ease now (11-12ish forgot the exact amount)]

small slight risk added for today

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1008 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019
 
Day 1
Valid 15Z Sun Feb 17 2019 - 12Z Mon Feb 18 2019 

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...Tennessee Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians...
The 12Z hires model suite suggests multiple rounds of moderate to 
heavy rainfall over the next 12 hours as multiple shortwave 
impulses embedded within strong deep layer southwest flow advance 
off to the northeast this afternoon and evening. In fact, the 12Z 
NAM and recent runs of the HRRR guidance support a low level jet 
reaching as strong as 50 kts and nosing in across the southern 
Appalachians by around 00Z. Strengthening frontogenetical forcing, 
backing mid/upper level flow aloft (favoring strong deep layer 
jet-aided ascent) and enhanced moisture transport/convergence with 
PWATs increasing to near 1.25 inches should favor an axis of 
moderate to heavy rain across the TN Valley and adjacent areas of 
the southern Appalachians. A relatively broad Marginal Risk area 
has been highlight across these areas given concerns at a minimum 
over locally wet antecedent conditions. However, the heaviest 
rainfall amounts which may exceed 1.5 inches, through 06Z tonight 
should be focused over southeast TN, far northern GA and southwest 
NC where the best nose of the low level jet and at least some 
modest instability will favor heavier rainfall rates and also 
working in tandem with stronger orographic forcing. Given the 
expected rainfall, and wet antecedent conditions, it is expected 
that ongoing runoff concerns will be further enhanced and become 
more widespread.

also older day 3 outlook

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019
 
Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 19 2019 - 12Z Wed Feb 20 2019 

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF 
THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...
Heavy rainfall will begin Tuesday afternoon and continue beyond 
the end of the Day 3 forecast period on Wednesday morning...with 
much of the 17/00Z guidance showing an axis of 2 to 5 inches of 
rainfall by the end of the Day 3 forecast period at 12Z Wednesday. 
 Given expected rainfall rates and training of cells/repeat 
convection, WPC hoisted a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall.

A system moving out of the Southern Rockies and adjacent High 
Plains will induce falling surface pressure over the southern tier 
of states on Tuesday.  Low level winds become southerly along the 
Gulf Coast and accelerates to between 45 kts and 60 kts by 
Wednesday morning.  The low level jet and the associated moisture 
transport vectors are expected to peak between 4 and 5 
standardized anomalies ahead of the system...and maximum 
precipitable water values increasing to near 1.75 inches along the 
Gulf Coast. 

Rainfall is expected to become more widespread with rainfall rates 
increasing Tuesday night due to increase low level moisture in 
addition to mid level shortwave energy sweeping in from the west.  
Aloft, the entrance region of a 160 kt to 180 kt jet will set up 
increasing amounts of divergence/difluence by the end of Day 
3...with increasing threat for flash flooding from either cell 
training or multiple rounds of convection at any given spot. 

WPC QPF opted for a position a bit east of the 16/12Z ECMWF 
moisture/QPF axis (and certainly more east of the 17/00Z ECMWF 
run)...but not as far east at the 17/00Z operational run of the 
GFS largely based on the bias of each model.  The idea to not be 
as far east as the 17/00Z GFS was supported by the 17/00Z run of 
the GFS-FV3 which tended to offer more support to the 16/12Z ECMWF 
idea.  Over time, the system becomes increasingly convective and 
the axis of heaviest rainfall pivots from a southwest-northeast 
orientation on Tuesday morning to one more south-north early 
Wednesday morning.  

This is the beginning of a prolonged period of heavy to excessive 
rainfall event which is expected to continue well beyond the end 
of the Day 3 forecast.  For precipitation forecasts for Thursday 
and beyond, refer to graphics and dicussions from the WPC Medium 
Range section. 

12z  NAM another inch NW bump on the "tuesday night" wave  3+ inches over central KY..most  of guys about an inch

edit GFS too (in thru 69 hr)

3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

0z Euro still with widespread 6 - 7.5" through TN and Ohio watersheds. Some areas 8+. 

WPC basically sums it up. And that discussion above as well.

Just amazing how wide the 7 - 10 inch field is.

 

Weathertree I think janetjanet mentioned that a run of the GFS yesterday broke the pattern down, but (janetjanet can correct me if wrong) I took that as just a hopeful mention of what that model depicted as a way out of this awful pattern. 6z GFS is back to this;

 

 

 

I think the GFS and GEFS had a NW flow for a few runs after next weekend  for a bit yesterday,,but seems more flat now..and in end of the run is back tiothe same pattern

Hunstville ...

AS ONE WOULD EXPECT   
FROM GUIDANCE 3+ DAYS OUT, THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL NOW   
APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO THE STALLING   
FRONT. AN ADDITIONAL 2-3" OF RAIN WILL FALL IN THIS PERIOD WITH  
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY   
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK, WHICH MAY INTRODUCE   
ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD WITHOUT RAIN. RAIN TOTALS FROM TODAY THROUGH   
NEXT FRIDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD 5-8", WITH ISOLATED AREAS POTENTIALLY   
10"+. IT IS ALSO NOTEWORTHY THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 200-500   
J/KG OF CAPE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF   
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE HEAVY RAINFALL.   
STRONGER CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS.  
  
ALL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN ABNORMALLY CONSISTENT WITH ANOTHER WAVE   
EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN US TROUGH, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF   
HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO  
RAPIDLY RETREAT AGAIN OVER THE TN VALLEY AS A WARM FRONT. WITHIN THE  
WARM SECTOR, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG STORMS NEXT   
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ESTIMATED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS FOR NEXT   
WEEKEND WOULD BE 1-2" ON TOP OF WHAT WE EXPECT THIS WEEK.  

CURRENT ANALOGIES   BEING USED ARE THE FLOODING EXPERIENCED ON CHRISTMAS IN 2015, AND   POTENTIALLY AS BAD AS THE SPRING FLOODS OF 2003.    

00z NAM NW with the first wave.(well second wave if you count tomorrow as the first)..max of 3.25 inches  or so in southern KY thru 84 hour

still 1.5 to 2.5 over much of eastern TN

very little of it falls outside the OH valley watershed (aka south of TN river) and more over KY near the river itself

10 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

That far NW corner of north Georgia is in the south chickamauga creek watershed. That creek represents the largest flood threat to the Chattanooga metro. It was impounded with levees after the 1973 floods. The last time they were tested was May 2003. We could have a comparable crest to that event next week. 

info on the 2003 event

The Major to Record Flooding of May 2003 across East Tennessee

 During the four day rain event (beginning at midnight on May 5th and ending at midnight on May 8th), a bull’s eye of over twelve inches of rain was reported in McMinn County, TN at both Etowah and Athens. The heaviest rains fell during the first 35 hours (midnight May 5th through 11:00 P.M. May 6th), where 11.6 and 11.1 inches fell at Etowah and Athens, respectively. Storm total rainfall of greater than six inches fell somewhere in each county south of a Sevier to Morgan County line. In the Little Tennessee River and Hiwassee River basins, greater than nine inches fell during the entire event. All of this water drained into Watts Bar and Chickamauga Lakes, which eventually flowed down to Chattanooga.

https://www.weather.gov/mrx/may03flood

well yesterday it was reported flows would be reduced from Kentucky lake and Barkley into the OHIO river...so far outflows from the combined dams have only dropped from  a combined 323,000 cfs to  280,000 cfs which is still a huge amount 

they also are still releasing  177,000 from Pickwick I (was 114K 2-14) into basically the start of Kentucky Lake...and the downstream hydrography suggest they may increase it? plus another 10K from buffalo and Duck

the Cumberland river into Barkley is at 74,000 bfs at Dover,  so a combined 261,000 cfs plus local runoff going into Ky lake and Barkley)  ...180,000 out

the OH river will crest soon at Cairo at 52 feet, the 20th highest on record (61.7 2011) and hold steady for 5- 6 days before falling

that is WITHOUT most of next weeks rain factored in.....which is creeping more north into more of the OH valley ,,,each run...

you can bet they are heaving heated discussions on what to do with all of the water...I suspect they will store it in Kentucky and Barkley to a point until the OH river crest passes...

Kentucky lake level 353.9 and  slowly rising now,,,normal summer pool is 359 I think the record is 372 or something in 2011 when they stored It until the OH crest passed..

-----

lake Cumberland 736.90. looks like it crested at 736.94...with 28,100 cfs outflow ...as of yesterday they were going to increase that to 35,000 after they build flood walls (record 40K) Dale hollow, just downstream is releasing 5,000 cfs the max combined allowed release is 40K I think....

note: Nashville needs 5.55 inches to break the monthy record

Wolf Creek Dam increasing releases to drawdown Lake Cumberland

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (Feb. 15, 2019)– The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Nashville District plans to increase releases at Wolf Creek Dam in Jamestown, Ky., as soon as conditions allow in an effort to drawdown the water level at Lake Cumberland.

Water managers at the Nashville District headquarters in Nashville, Tenn., said Wolf Creek Dam is currently discharging water at a rate of 28,000 cubic feet per second, but plan to increase to 35,000 cfs as soon as conditions allow. 

The current elevation at Lake Cumberland is the highest observed since April 25, 1998 when the pool crested at 742.44 feet.  The pool of record is 751.69 set in May 1984. 

In 2019 inflows are averaging 33,270 cfs and the lake has risen 19 feet

Wolf Creek Dam last discharged water at a rate of 35,000 cfs in March and April of 1997.  The flow of record from Wolf Creek Dam is 40,000 cfs in January 1974.  River View Road had not been developed at that time.

https://www.dvidshub.net/news/310958/wolf-creek-dam-increasing-releases-drawdown-lake-cumberland

Local dams to release less water, hope to reduce flooding impact downstream (KY lake and Barkley into OH river)

As the Ohio River reaches its peak, Looney says less water will be released out of the dams, causing lake levels to rise above typical summer levels. He says that should also help reduce the impact of flooding downstream.

https://www.wpsdlocal6.com/2019/02/14/local-dams-to-release-less-water-hope-to-reduce-flooding-impact-downstream/

Tennessee Valley Authority
53 mins · 
The River Forecast Center is tracking significant rainfall with numerous rounds of heavy rain beginning as early as Monday and continuing through the week. Most of the heavy rain is expected Tuesday through Thursday.
We are preparing by increased releases from the tributary reservoirs like Norris, Douglas, and Cherokee to create as much storage space as possible. On the main stem Tennessee River, reservoirs are being pulled down to below winter pool to have some storage and handle local inflows. 
We continue to work with the US Army Corps of Engineers to help reduce flooding on the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers.
This rain event could result in high river flood stages, especially in Alabama and below Pickwick in the Savannah to Johnsonville areas.
River stage info:
Chattanooga, TN: http://tva.me/XehH50lyZqL
South Pittsburg, TN: http://tva.me/8XyT50lyZqK
Whitesburg, AL: http://tva.me/ZM9T50lyZqP
Florence, AL: http://tva.me/lpmw50lyZqN
Savannah, TN: http://tva.me/Eam150lyZqO
Clifton, TN: http://tva.me/7Bkb50lyZqM
Perryville, TN: http://tva.me/vNt650lyZqQ
 

it may be off its peak right now  but still......

C031-081-070100-  
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-180407T0100Z/  
DE SOTO LA-RED RIVER LA-  
754 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR EAST  
CENTRAL DE SOTO AND CENTRAL RED RIVER PARISHES...  
          
AT 754 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED OVER COUSHATTA, OR 21 MILES EAST OF MANSFIELD, MOVING EAST AT  
20 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.   

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
739 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018  
  
LAC031-081-070100-  
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-180407T0100Z/  
DE SOTO LA-RED RIVER LA-  
739 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018  
   
..TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE CITY OF COUSHATTA  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR EAST  
CENTRAL DE SOTO AND CENTRAL RED RIVER PARISHES...  
          
AT 738 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS LOCATED  
NEAR COUSHATTA, OR 16 MILES EAST OF MANSFIELD, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  
  
TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR COUSHATTA. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS   
SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  

And now has weakened 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
847 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017  
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0843 PM     TORNADO          GRAND PRAIRIE           32.75N  96.98W  
01/15/2017                   DALLAS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER   
  
            CONFIRMED TORNADO STATE HIGHWAY 161 AND ARKANSAS   

Confirmed now

Still nothing confirmed but new warning Dallas county

Really nice hook now. The line just west of it will overtake soon but until then dangerous situation 

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
804 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 830 PM CST  
      
* AT 802 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A   
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 67 BETWEEN ALVARADO AND   
  VENUS. CASA RADAR INDICATES THAT THIS CIRCULATION WILL APPROACH   
  PLEASANT POINT AND LILLIAN OVER THE NEXT FEW MINUTES.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.