janetjanet998

  
0400 PM     SNOW             MORRIS                  41.36N 88.42W  
12/29/2020  E2.0 INCH        GRUNDY             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR     
  
            SNOWFALL OVER THE PAST HOUR.   
  

going to be a long day

Sat/radar showing discrete storms developing over the gulf stream off GA and SC moving NNE towards eastern NC as modeled 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1116 AM CST THU DEC 24 2020  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHERN NC  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 241716Z - 241945Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...WHILE THE NEAR-TERM TORNADO RISK MAY REMAIN MARGINAL, IT  
WILL INCREASE INTO A HIGHER PROBABILITY RISK LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  
WHEN EXACTLY THAT THREAT WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO WATCH  
IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.  
  
DISCUSSION...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION FROM ROBESON TO COLUMBUS COUNTY,  
NC HAVE HAD EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THESE HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED  
BY RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH GREATER THAN 300  
M2/S2. SCANT SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY (MLCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG) IS  
PREVALENT AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S  
AMID LOW 60S DEW POINTS. THIS HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT WILL  
PROBABLY REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE  
OF PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO, INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NC.   
  
WITH TIME, GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST  
SC SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NC. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN CONFLUENCE BANDS ARE ANTICIPATED AND THE RISK FOR  
SUSTAINING SUPERCELLS SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  
A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.  
  
..GRAMS/GUYER.. 12/24/2020  

now a second cell warned

 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
1212 PM EST THU DEC 24 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHWESTERN BLADEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...  
  NORTHWESTERN COLUMBUS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...  
  
* UNTIL 1245 PM EST.  
      
* AT 1212 PM EST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CHADBOURN, OR 8 MILES WEST OF WHITEVILLE,  
  MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

new day 1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1030 AM CST THU DEC 24 2020  
  
VALID 241630Z - 251200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS  
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WITH TORNADOES  
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.  
   
..EASTERN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES  
  
MULTI-ROUND SEVERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION  
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY FOR THE EASTERN  
CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA, WHERE SEMI-DISCRETE WARM SECTOR STORMS  
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COULD BE FOLLOWED BY A WELL-ORGANIZED  
CONVECTIVE LINE LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT.  
  
MULTI-LAYER CLOUD COVER REMAINS PREVALENT AT MIDDAY ACROSS THE  
REGION WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION OCCURRING NEAR THE COASTAL  
CAROLINAS WHERE LOW/MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BECOMING MORE  
PREVALENT. NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD-RACING BANDS OF CONVECTION OVER THE  
EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE  
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT BECOMES ROOTED WITHIN  
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER, ALTHOUGH THE  
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A LINGERING WARM LAYER  
ALOFT LEADS TO SOME TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS, EXTREMELY  
STRONG LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, ACCENTUATED BY 55-60 KT IN THE  
LOWEST 1 KM AGL AND 300+ 0-1 KM SRH, WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF  
FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK,  
PARTICULARLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE  
MAGNITUDE OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR/SRH, A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE  
RULED OUT.  
  
OTHERWISE, AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF REGIONAL  
SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A  
STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE EVOLVES AND SPREADS  
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND COASTAL  
MID-ATLANTIC/DELMARVA. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST PROBABLE SEVERE  
HAZARD, ALTHOUGH A QLCS-RELATED TORNADO RISK MAY EXIST AS WELL.  
   
..FLORIDA/GEORGIA  
  
A NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED COMPOSITE CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS  
SOUTHERN GEORGIA/FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT LATE MORNING IMMEDIATELY  
PRECEDES AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL  
MOISTENING/DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FLORIDA  
PENINSULA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT/CONVECTIVE  
LINE, WITH SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION OTHERWISE REMAINING MINIMAL  
FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN GEORGIA. LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER  
WINDS WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL  
WINDS WILL TEND TO SLOWLY VEER WITH WIND PROFILES TRENDING MORE  
UNIDIRECTIONAL OVER TIME. EVEN WITH RELATIVELY MODEST BUOYANCY, THIS  
SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT FURTHER ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF  
UPSCALE-GROWING QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. AN  
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHIFTING  
EASTWARD/TENDING TO DIMINISH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET.  
  
..GUYER/LYONS.. 12/24/2020  

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0649 AM CST THU DEC 24 2020  
  
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SURROUNDING THE "ENHANCED" AREA...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,  
WITH TORNADOES AND DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS, BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM  
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD, IN STEP WITH A  
HIGH-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC TROUGH.  AS ONE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE EJECT  
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AN UPSTREAM PERTURBATION  
-- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER THE MB/ON BORDER --  
WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD.  ANOTHER PERTURBATION INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL  
TX WILL PIVOT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  AS THIS  
OCCURS, A CLOSED 500-MB CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER OH  
VALLEY REGION DURING THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME, ITS CENTER MOVING  
EASTWARD PAST SDF BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW.   
  
AT THE SURFACE, THE PRIMARY, OCCLUDED SYNOPTIC LOW OVER THE EASTERN  
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION WILL FILL AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS  
NORTHERN ON.  THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY DRAWN ACROSS  
PARTS OF OH, EASTERN KY/TN, AL, TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOUTH,  
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH  
THIS EVENING.  AS THE MID/UPPER CYCLONE CLOSES TO THE WEST, A WEAK,  
CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN AL/NORTHWESTERN GA  
REGION SHOULD MOVE UP THE FRONT TO THE EASTERN WV/SOUTHWESTERN PA  
CORRIDOR BY 00Z, BECOMING THE PRIMARY LOW OVER NY TONIGHT AND  
REACHING SOUTHERN QC BY 12Z.  BY THEN, THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL  
REACH EASTERN PA, THEN OFFSHORE FROM THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS  
ATLANTIC COAST, HAVING CROSSED SOUTH FL AROUND 06Z.   
   
..EASTERN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND VICINITY  
  
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS  
THIS REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN TWO PRIMARY REGIMES:  
1.  AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, MOVING NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD  
FROM A FAVORABLY MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING MARINE BOUNDARY-LAYER  
REGION OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THIS CONVECTION WILL CROSS LESSER BUT  
STILL SUFFICIENT/SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY ACROSS THE EASTERN  
CAROLINAS, AS THE WARM SECTOR MODIFIES AND BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE,  
AMIDST STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR.  WARM-SECTOR DEW POINTS IN THE 60S  
WILL OFFSET MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO  
MLCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE FROM EASTERN NC ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN SOUNDS/OUTER BANKS OF NC, LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE  
SOUTHERN NC COASTLINE.  DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE, OFFERING  
TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND.  THEN...  
2.  A NEAR-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP EASTWARD TO  
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION, PRESENTING A MORE-DOMINANT WIND  
THREAT, BUT WITH SOME LINE-EMBEDDED/QLCS TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.    
  
HEIGHT FALLS AND TIGHTENING HEIGHT/THERMAL GRADIENTS ALOFT ARE  
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AS THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST.  A  
65-75 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND SHIFT ACROSS THIS REGION, LEADING TO  
UNCOMMONLY SIMILAR, 40-50-KT MAGNITUDES OF SHEAR VECTORS IN THE 0-1,  
0-3, AND EFFECTIVE LAYERS. DESPITE THE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL,  
SOUTHERLY LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL FLOW, EVEN VERY SLIGHT HODOGRAPH  
CURVATURE CONTRIBUTES TO 200-350 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH IN FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS.    
  
THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME STILL MORE STABLE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT  
PAST A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE  
DELMARVA/MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  HOWEVER, AT LEAST A  
MARGINAL WIND AND TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE JUSTIFIED, GIVEN THE  
STRENGTH OF THE AMBIENT DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND AT LEAST WEAK  
INSTABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE.  
   
..FL/GA  
  
SEE THE REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH 517, MESOSCALE-DISCUSSION UPDATES  
FOR THAT, AND SEPARATE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372 FOR MORE DETAILS ON  
THE SEVERE THREAT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE NEAR-FRONTAL SQUALL  
LINE AND WARM SECTOR OVER THE FL PANHANDLE REGION.  
    
THE MAIN BELT OF CONVECTION WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER  
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, PRESENTING A THREAT FOR  
SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO.  MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY  
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GREATEST OVER OPEN GULF WATERS NEAR THE LOOP  
CURRENT, WHERE MARINE THERMAL/MOISTURE FLUXES OPTIMIZE BOUNDARY-  
LAYER THETA-E.  STILL, AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC  
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN A NORTHWARD-NARROWING CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE  
MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE, AS PARTLY MODIFIED PARCELS ADVECT FROM THE  
GULF.  THIS AIR MASS, CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST LAPSE RATES BUT ALSO  
MINIMAL MLCINH, ALSO MAY SUPPORT MATURATION OF CELLS DEVELOPING IN  
THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE THEY CROSS INTO MORE-STABLE AIR.  
  
..EDWARDS/SMITH.. 12/24/2020  

I am trying to find some history of regional Tornado outbreaks (or any tornadoes at all for that matter) in this area on Christmas eve and/or day but I cannot

now there were some decent outbreaks after this chart in 2012 and 2015 but those were over the deep south  or TN valley and not the Carolinas

Late December 2012 North American storm complex

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_December_2012_North_American_storm_complex

31 confirmed only one in NC a EF1 and that was on the 26th

------------------------

Tornado outbreak of December 23–25, 2015

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_December_23–25,_2015

2 weak tornadoes in SC but those were on the 23rd and and looks like not connected with the main outbreak back west

6 hours ago, eyewall said:

It will be quite a wild day. The NAM brings that supercell composite pretty far west.

seems like models are slowing the system down some each run allowing better moisture return

SB CAPE >1000 now on the 18z NAM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE  
243 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN WINNEBAGO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 345 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 243 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER ROCKFORD, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO

4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Hopefully all the looted businesses in the loop reinforce that plywood covering the windows...

per police scanner reports still going on ...but in other areas of the city (isolated) 

widespread power outages might not help as night falls

https://twitter.com/search?q=chicagoscanner&src=recent_search_click&f=live

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

SPC needs to consider high with 20z out look or sooner.

This is as about high end as it gets.


.

trying to recall the highest wind gusts i have seen out of these systems

121 MPH for some reason my brain spits out,,not sure if that is correct ..

1225 PM     TSTM WND GST     BLAIRSTOWN              41.91N 92.08W  
08/10/2020  E90 MPH          BENTON             IA   EMERGENCY MNGR     
  
            WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90 MPH WITH MAJOR DAMAGE   
            REPORTED IN TOWN.   

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Des Moines just officially gusted to 75mph at DSM.

the VAD in the lower 3km on COD nexlab was interesting and still has 60 kts 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA  
1204 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020  
  
IAC099-123-125-127-157-171-101730-  
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-200810T1730Z/  
POWESHIEK IA-MARSHALL IA-MARION IA-TAMA IA-MAHASKA IA-JASPER IA-  
1204 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020  
  
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT  
FOR POWESHIEK...EASTERN MARSHALL...NORTHEASTERN MARION...TAMA...  
MAHASKA AND EASTERN JASPER COUNTIES...  
  
AT 1203 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM NEAR TRAER TO NEAR VICTOR TO 6 MILES WEST OF DELTA,  
MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.  
  
THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS.  
  
HAZARD...90 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  SOME AREAS MAY   
         HAVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH! 

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 384  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1035 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  NORTHEAST ILLINOIS  
  NORTHERN INDIANA  
  SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN  
  NORTHWEST OHIO  
  LAKE MICHIGAN  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1035 AM UNTIL  
  600 PM CDT.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY  
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
  
SUMMARY...A FAST-MOVING COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS  
WILL APPROACH THE CHICAGO AREA, WHILE OTHER STORMS DEVELOP THIS  
AFTERNOON ALONG A BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA.  DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
1005 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020  
   
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION  
  
1005 AM CDT  
  
CURRENTLY, A COMPACT BOWING LINE OF STORMS (AND ASSOCIATED MCV)   
IS MOVING ACROSS HENRY, BUREAU, STARK, AND NORTHERN MARSHALL   
COUNTIES. THE BOW IS BEING DRIVEN BY A STRONG 80-85KT RIJ SEEN   
NICELY ON OUR RADAR, WITH REPORTS FROM NWS QUAD CITIES CONFIRMING   
SEVERE WINDS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE STORM IS MOVING   
INTO AN AIRMASS INTO WHICH HEAVY RAIN AND HENCE COOL AIR HAS BEEN   
FALLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT  
OPTIMALLY STRONG TO BALANCE SUCH A STRONG SURGING RIJ/COLD POOL,   
CONFIDENCE IN THE DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING TO PLOW INTO LA SALLE   
COUNTY IS NOT HIGH EVEN THOUGH A RESERVOIR OF PLENTIFUL   
INSTABILITY EXISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CLUSTER. SO, WHILE THE BOW   
MAY CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS, THE HIGHEST WINDS  
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED AND HENCE LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO   
AN ISOLATED BASIS. WE TOUCHED BASE WITH SPC AND THEY AGREE  
- THOUGH IF DAMAGE CONTINUES INTO LA SALLE COUNTY, WE WILL HAVE TO  
ENTERTAIN THE IDEA OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH A SMALL  
PORTION OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS.   
  

Finally something

  
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1012 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHWESTERN INDIANA  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE   
  
VALID 191512Z - 191645Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF ONGOING STORMS CONTINUES TO SURGE  
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  CONTINUATION OF  
LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO COULD WARRANT WW  
ISSUANCE.  
  
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS  
BOWING/SURGING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT  
50 KT AT THIS TIME.  THE STORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF THE  
SURFACE COLD FRONT LYING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA, AND  
IT APPEARS THAT THE LOCAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH  
A REMNANT MCV.  
  
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS BOWING CLUSTER, PERSISTENT RAINFALL/CONVECTION  
HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND INTO  
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA, WHICH -- ALONG WITH RELATIVELY DENSE CLOUD  
COVER HINDERING HEATING -- SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUST  
POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN TEMPERED/LOCAL AS CONVECTION GRADUALLY  
APPROACHES THE CHICAGO METRO AREA.  HOWEVER, WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE  
ANALYSES MAINTAINING AN AXIS OF 2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE, AND  
MODERATE/UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE,  
CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN ORGANIZED IN THE SHORT TERM.   
WHILE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WIND RISK MAY REMAIN LIMITED OVER THE  
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS, CONTINUATION OF SEVERE-CALIBER GUSTS INTO REGIONS  
THAT HAVE BEEN RAIN-COOLED COULD PROMPT WW CONSIDERATION.  

and where is SPC still.... not a good day for the pros

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
1011 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  PUTNAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  BUREAU COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT.  
  
* AT 1011 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER TISKILWA, OR  
  7 MILES SOUTH OF PRINCETON, MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM!  
  
  HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
  SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

This area got 3-8 inches last Weds...much of woodford got 6-8 inches then

also 3-4 inches down over southern Grundy and that cluster is still well west....

come on LOT where is the flash flooding warning?

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
1005 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
  MARSHALL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHEASTERN TAZEWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 100 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 1004 AM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING  
  HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE   
  ALREADY FALLEN FOR PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA AND ADDITIONAL   
  HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING   
  IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.  
  

Southern Lasalle and southern Grundy county needs a flash flood warning

7 t-storm warnings and several reports of wind damage with that western cluster

not even a meso from SPC

WPC for flooding

ESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0506  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
958 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2020  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA  
  
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  
  
VALID 191358Z - 191858Z  
  
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HOURLY RATES BETWEEN 1.0-2.0"  
WILL BE CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO NORTHWEST INDIANA.  
  
DISCUSSION...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM  
EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN IOWA, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED IN THE LAST HOUR PER RECENT RADAR  
RETURNS AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS SEEN IN THE GOES-EAST IR IMAGERY.  
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE HAS POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT,  
CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S AND PWS AROUND 2 INCHES  
(1.75" AT ILX) WHICH IS 2.5-3.0 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE  
CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. SBCAPE IS NOW UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG.  
FINALLY, PER THE LATEST RAP, 850 MB INFLOW INTO THE CONVECTION  
REMAINS 20-30 KTS THIS MORNING.  
  
HI-RES GUIDANCE, INCLUDING LATEST HRRR RUNS, ARE NOT INITIALIZING  
CURRENT ACTIVITY VERY WELL WHICH LEADS TO AN OVERALL LOWER  
CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS THIS MORNING AND  
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WITH INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION AND  
BUILDING INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION, AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE  
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE, THERE ISN'T ANY STRONG  
REASON FOR THE CONVECTION TO WANE AT THIS POINT IN THE MID TO LATE  
MORNING HOURS, AND THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR SOME BACKBUILDING OR  
REPEATING ROUNDS GIVEN THE MEAN FLOW IS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE  
STORM MOTION (AND WATCHING THE SMALLER CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER  
SOUTHEAST IA THAT COULD GROW FURTHER AND TRACK OVER THE SAME  
AREAS).  
  
GIVEN THE HIGH PWS, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS  
ABOVE 4 KM, HOURLY TOTALS BETWEEN 1-2" CAN BE EXPECTED AND TOTALS  
THROUGH 18Z AS HIGH AS 3" IN PLACES. THE 7-DAY PRECIPITATION  
DEPARTURES SHOW SOME ABOVE NORMAL AREAS ACROSS  
CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND IS WHERE SOME OF THE FFGS ARE  
LOWER, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL TO  
FALL OVER URBAN OR MORE SENSITIVE AREAS, SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL  
BE POSSIBLE.  
  

new development east of the western cluster just west of me...clusters may merge

meanwhile...A quick spin up?

0842 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SPERRY                  40.95N 91.15W  
07/19/2020                   DES MOINES         IA   EMERGENCY MNGR     
  
            BILLBOARD DAMAGE AND TWISTED SIGNS BY THE   
            JOHN DEERE DEALERSHIP.   
  

Models not doing well with the IL/SE IA convection

a couple of severe warmed storms in SE IA

cloud tops continue to cool and expand 

HRRR trying to catch  up

looks like some training over the south Chicago Suburbs incoming

ILX update

 RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS  
OCCURRED AROUND 5-6 AM, WITH LATEST RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING SEVERAL  
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHICAGO METRO TO PEORIA, WEST  
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. MODEL DEPICTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN STELLAR  
WITH THEIR ACCURACY THUS FAR IN THIS SCENARIO, THOUGH THE NSSL WRF  
APPEARS TO HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A HANDLE ON AT LEAST THE ILLINOIS  
PORTION OF THE ACTIVITY.

looks like this is the 2nd wettest calendar day is Peoria

5.19

5.52 May 18, 1927

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/IL/Peoria/extreme-annual-peoria-precipitation.php

also

800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       E PEORIA                40.74N 89.61W   
07/15/2020  M8.00 INCH       PEORIA             IL   PUBLIC            
  
            RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA