janetjanet998
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Posts posted by janetjanet998
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0640 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N PEORIA INTERNATIONA 40.70N 89.68W
07/15/2020 M6.48 INCH PEORIA IL TRAINED SPOTTER
RAIN SINCE 1PM -
worst flooding in quite a while here
2.85 inches on 1 hour at the airport last ob if it is correct
5 total
City and SE metro hit hard
Peoria, Pekin, East Peoria. Morton and smaller towns hit hard
edit: several on facebook reporting 6 inch rain gauge overflowing NW side of Morton
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Tornado watch issued at 2:10
Meso update on that watch at 2:13
3 mins..got to be the fastest ever
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 373 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 210 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...AN REMNANT MCV AND ITS RELATED STRONG DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS ORGANIZING LINEAR BOWING STORMS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ASIDE FROM MORE PREVALENT DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS. SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2020
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL IL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 373...
VALID 151913Z - 152015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 373 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR
TWO, ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TORNADO WATCH 373
FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW NORTH OF COU IN
CENTRAL MO, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL IL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IL NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT FOR THE PAST
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A STRENGTHENING
TREND WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS, PARTICULARLY THE STORM IN TAZEWELL
COUNTY. AS EVIDENCED BY THE 17Z ILX SOUNDING, INSTABILITY IS MODEST
IN THIS REGION, BUT VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONG. AS A RESULT, MORE
PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE/ROTATE, CONTRIBUTING
TO A SLIGHTLY GREATER SEVERE THREAT THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE
SUPPORTED BY THE INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY, INITIALLY ELEVATED
STORMS (LIKE THOSE WEST OF TAZEWELL COUNTY) MAY BE ABLE TO
TRANSITION TO MORE SURFACE-BASED IF MID-LEVEL ROTATION PERSISTS
AND/OR AS A RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE.
CONSEQUENTLY, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING LARGE HAIL
AND A TORNADO OR TWO. -
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0491
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1142 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020Areas affected......Central Missouri to central Illinois...
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 151545Z - 152145Z
Summary...Flash flooding is possible as showers and thunderstorms
expand across central Illinois into north central Missouri.
Rainfall totals between now and 22z are expected to be 1-3 inches
with isolated maxima to 5 inches.Discussion...Widespread showers and thunderstorms moving northeast
from northern Missouri are expected to continue moving across
central Illinois through early afternoon.The northern half of the threat area over central to northern IL
is where a low level warm front centered near 850 mb drifts north,
with focused warm and moisture advection combining with frontal
convergence and 850-700 mb moisture fluxes to produce ascent.Since the axis of instability is forecast to remain over northern
to central Missouri, redevelopment of cells is expected as
temperatures rise in the warm sector and instability increases
with time. The 14z RAP indicates potential for mixed layer CAPE
values to increase to 2000-3000 j/kg early this afternoon over
east central Missouri.The precipitable water values are estimated to increase to 2-2.25
inches in the 14z run of the RAP this morning from northeast
Missouri across central Illinois. A closed 850-700 mb low moving
across northern Missouri provides focus for lift in the area of
greatest moisture, along with pre-frontal convergence east of a
quasi stationary surface front near the Iowa/Illinois border and
forming cold front in northeast Missouri.With moist, convergent flow centered near 850 mb, convection
should develop in the higher precipitable water axis. Rainfall
rates of 1-2 in/hr will be likely given the high available
moisture in east central Missouri.The high res models from the 12z NAM Conus Nest, 00z NSSL WRF,
13-14z HRRR, experimental HRRR, and 12z WRF ARW/ARW member 2
forecast clusters of 1-3 inches of rain by 21z, with isolated
maxima to 5 inches. Flash flood guidance in 2-3 inches of rain in
3 hours, so flash flooding will be focused on the more persistent
clusters of storms.The activity has been developing and moving a little more quickly
to the east northeast than most of the guidance.
The 06-12z Canadian regional GEM has captured the faster east
progression better than the WRF ARW/NMMB/Experimental HRRR.Also, these models may be depicting heavier rain too far north
into the area of less instability in southeast Iowa.Petersen
ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ILX...LOT...LSX...SGF...
ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...
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42 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:
12HRRR is just crazy for western IL/ NE MO...keep rains going almost nonstop(expect a couple hours maybe this afternoon) for the next 24 hours as the area gets caught in a WAA wing of a MCS overnight
This over areas that have 4-8 inches already
IF this correct 10-13 inch amounts possible
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0407
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1004 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2020
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA, EASTERN MO, SOUTHERN IL,
WESTERN KY
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 301404Z - 302000Z
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV AND LLJ
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES TO 2"/HR ARE
LIKELY, PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF RAIN, WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS TO 5" POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE AND PERSIST
ONGOING FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...GOES-16 IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS AN EXTENDED
CLUSTER OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA TO AS FAR
SOUTH AS CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THIS IS REPRESENTATIVE OF A REGION OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BENEATH IT, ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV NEAR
THE IL/IA/MO BORDER, AS WELL AS ALONG THE NOSE OF A ROBUST LLJ
ARCING FROM THE SW AT 30-40KTS. 12Z U/A SOUNDINGS INDICATED PWS OF
1.57" AT DVN AND 1.68" AT ILX, BOTH AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE, WITH GPS TPW OBSERVATIONS INDICATING PWS
TO 1.8" LURKING JUST SW OF THE AREA. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AT ILX WERE
MEASURED AT ALMOST 13,500 FT, AND A RIBBON OF MUCAPE OF GREATER
THAN 2000 J/KG WAS ANALYZED BY THE RECENT RAP, WITH A MODEST WEST
TO EAST INSTABILITY GRADIENT PRESENT ACROSS THE CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH THE HIGH-RES CAMS DIFFER AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE BI-MODAL DISTRIBUTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE FIRST IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MCV WHICH IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT NEARLY IN PLACE ACROSS SE IA. AS THIS SPINS, AN ENHANCED
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AND INTENSIFY TO ITS S/SW
AS MODEST 850MB INFLOW SUPPLIES EXTREME INSTABILITY (MUCAPE RISING
TO 3000 J/KG) AND ANOMALOUS PWS APPROACHING 2". WHILE SOME SUBTLE
W/SW MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY, IT WILL BE SLOW TO DRIFT
AS IT ENCOUNTERS WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST,
SUGGESTING REGENERATION AND TRAINING/BACKBUILDING ALONG IT WITH
LITTLE DISPLACEMENT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WITH RATES POTENTIALLY RISING TO 2"/HR OR MORE. MUCH OF
THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED MRMS ESTIMATED RAINFALL OF 2-4"
WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN 6" IN THE LAST 12 HOURS, SO SOILS ARE
PRE-SATURATED AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WOULD ENHANCE ONGOING
FLASH FLOODING. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" OF RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS
LOCALLY DOUBLE THAT IS LIKELY AS SHOWN BY THE RECENT HRRRV4,
HRRRV3, AND ARW.
FURTHER SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN IL AND INTO WESTERN KY, A SECONDARY
MAXIMA IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ MORE IMPRESSIVELY
DRIVES MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORT. DEEPENING
WARM CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO MUCAPE RISING
TOWARDS 4000 J/KG AND PWS IN EXCESS OF 2" SUGGESTS RAIN RATES WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MAY EXCEED 2"/HR AS WELL. WHILE THERE
EXISTS MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAG IN
ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY, THE ROBUST LLJ AND EXTREME THERMODYNAMICS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTN. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
BACKBUILDING, AND WHERE EXCESSIVE RAIN RATES CAN TRAIN, AN
ADDITIONAL 1-3" WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 5" ARE POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL PROLONG AND ENHANCE FLASH FLOODING.
WEISS -
12HRRR is just crazy for western IL/ NE MO...keep rains going almost nonstop(expect a couple hours maybe this afternoon) for the next 24 hours as the area gets caught in a WAA wing of a MCS overnight
This over areas that have 4-8 inches already
IF this correct 10-13 inch amounts possible
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7 hours ago, Hoosier said:
Just a little
06z NAM didn't back off.....
already 4-8 inches in the Quincy area
MS river river was already at or near flood stage form there to just north of STL
models have the whole stem from UIN to mouth of OH river dumped on
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NAM is a "tad" bullish with rainfall amounts in SW IL
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models develop an interesting little low over western IL the next 24 hours
PW vales >2 and 500mb temps warming to -3 C on NAM
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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:
imo, this is the best tornado threat in the LOT cwa since Memorial Day 2019.
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RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
610 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2020
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR NORTHERN GEORGIA
FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWEST SOUTH CAROLINA
EASTERN TENNESSEE
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY EVENING FROM 610 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...MULTIPLE, LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A
RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES AND SEVERE HAIL, BEFORE WEAKENING LATER
THIS EVENING. -
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EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
455 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2020
TNC159-252215-
/O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-200425T2215Z/
SMITH TN-
455 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2020
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
SMITH COUNTY...
AT 454 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40 AROUND 7
MILES WEST OF GORDONSVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. -
TDS
edit: to add update
51 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY... AT 450 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40 NORTHEAST OF WATERTOWN, OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARTHAGE, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
446 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2020
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
EAST CENTRAL WILSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
* UNTIL 515 PM CDT.
* AT 446 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR WATERTOWN, OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARTHAGE,
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2020
VALID 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN TN/SOUTHEASTERN KY INTO WESTERN
NC...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA.
..TN/KY TODAY TO NC THROUGH TONIGHT
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE OVER SOUTHEAST MO THIS MORNING
WILL PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE OH RIVER TODAY, AND REACH
THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS OF
56-60 F WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO TN/KY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE. SURFACE HEATING WILL BE SOMEWHAT MUTED BY LINGERING
CLOUDS, BUT GRADUAL BREAKS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF
THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE CYCLONE. THOUGH BUOYANCY WILL BE RATHER
MODEST, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS, AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, DEPENDING ON THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. STORMS THAT MATURE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EASTERN TN COULD PERSIST INTO WESTERN NC
BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY TONIGHT.
FARTHER EAST AND OVERNIGHT, SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG
A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER BY 12Z, AND
AS AN UPSTREAM SPEED MAX OVER THE PLAINS ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS. GRADUAL AIR MASS
MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST IN THE
WAKE OF THE PRIOR FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS FL. AS THE LOW LEVELS
WARM/MOISTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT, WIND PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND STORM COVERAGE WHERE LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION IS
MOST PROBABLE (CLOSER TO THE COAST), SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW
TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS
EASTERN NC.
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possible sleeper event TN/KY today ,
lots of spin near stacked low and cold 500mb temps
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overnight event deep south
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT THU APR 16 2020
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
..DISCUSSION
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING QUICKLY FROM TX SUNDAY/D4 MORNING TO GA BY 12Z MONDAY/D5. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE RED RIVER DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY, SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 00Z. AHEAD OF
THE LOW, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES,
WITH UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS LIKELY INTO CENTRAL MS, AL, AND GA, WITH
LOW 70S F ALONG THE COAST. MUCAPE TO AT LEAST 2000 J/KG IS LIKELY BY
18Z FROM TX INTO AL, WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF -10 TO -12 C.
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO FORM RELATIVELY EARLY OVER EAST TX, WHERE THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SUPERCELLS
ARE POSSIBLE INITIALLY, WITH AN EVENTUAL MCS LIKELY. A TORNADO OR
TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. MEANWHILE TO
THE EAST, WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WELL AHEAD OF THE
MCS ACROSS MS, AL, GA, PRODUCING A TORNADO OR TWO ALONG WITH HAIL.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK IN TERMS OF COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE AN MCS
TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW AS IT QUICKLY MOVES ALONG THE EAST-WEST
INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS LA, MS, AL AND INTO GA. SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IS PRESENT IN THE MODELS, SUPPORTING THE NOTION
OF A WELL-DEFINED MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE SRH WILL NOT BE
VERY STRONG INITIALLY, IT SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 00Z, WITH ENHANCED
WIND AND/OR TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE CORRIDOR OF MAXIMUM THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE ADJUSTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
FOR D5/MONDAY, THERE MAY BE A SMALL AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER FAR EASTERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS
AROUND 12Z. HOWEVER, MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM MOVES,
THEREFORE PREDICTABILITY ISSUES WILL PRECLUDE AN AREA. -
Severe weather possible again this Sunday
12 Euro most aggressive with a 1004 low in NW Texas at 12z and 995 mb in SC/GA at 12z Monday
another event possible mid next week (gfs, CMC) as more southern jet energy moving in
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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1207 PM EDT MON APR 13 2020
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BALTIMORE CITY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...
NORTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
SOUTHWESTERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...
* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT.
* AT 1207 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR COLUMBIA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
HAZARD...TORNADO.
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RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM EDT MON APR 13 2020
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1130 AM UNTIL
600 PM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY AND A COUPLE TORNADIC
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
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Italy ..not good..being stubborn
619 new deaths and 4694 new cases the most in a week
model had it at 281 deaths for today
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just saw this
Cook county Jail is the nations "hotspot" with 448 cases, with Statesville #7
https://twitter.com/lookner/status/1248738712323751942/photo/1
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6 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:
Here is the model the WH likes to use
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
60,000 deaths .....down from 120K
the issue I see with it is that the slope may be too steep after the peak with decreasing deaths per day
plus no deaths after June 15th and only 60 total June 1-14
you can see this error in Italy ...which served as some of the original data input for the model
https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy
Italy projection for 4-9 was 384 actual 570 (plus almost 4000 new cases...)
new update in
corrected some what the errors I talked about , peak too high but slope after peak decline too steep
added about 1400 more deaths 61,545
but Italy update slope will be way way off still
https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy
2020 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread
in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Posted
7.2 inches in my dads gauge on the far NE side of Pekin