Cary_Snow95

Euro control run is very active around 2/3 time frame

It’s moving into a harsh environment with high shear soon and dry air is already having its way.

End of Euro continues to advertise major outbreaks of dry air

As expected GFS is trending towards other guidance with a weaker system

GFS coming in much weaker and more realistic imo. Think we will see euro and gfs begin to agree on a weak TD

Wave breaking continues to wreak havoc on the MDR. Mid Latitude dry air is being consistently driven into the MDR. Latest Euro further strengthens the sub tropical low sending a surge of dry air south

18z HWRF is into the Central GOM fwiw

GEFS continues to speed it up pretty drastically

With this kind of 500mb look is a GOM threat favored? With a lifting trough and a building high I feel like getting anything up the east coast would be hard. I could be completely wrong tho

Euro still looked fine and is a few minor tweaks from a major. Gfs sucks but is on an island compared to the euro, icon, and cmc

4-6 across the area. And temps afterwards are extremely cold for multiple days. Snow would be around a while. Perfect setup on the 12z. And looking at the H5 maps, it was close to a monster

RGEM has interaction much earlier as well. GFS will be telling if this trend will continue

It’s a storm that depends on dynamical cooling and a strong cyclone to drag 850s down. Need a phase

The setups are completely different at H5 and this setup verbatim would have a nice cold high to the north

Early maps clobber central NC. 6 around Wake with higher amounts to the NE. Low bombs out and pulls 850s with it