downeastnc

Meh I am suppose to be out of town that weekend so it will tease a hit so I have to stay home or come home early then curve OTS and miss.....

Had a tor warned cell pass north of me by 10 miles or so, couplet was decent but not hearing any reports yet of ground truth, sky is insane though lots of fast moving low swirly scud etc......

94L isnt looking horrible this afternoon, still with the big front ( for July anyways ) coming there is little threat of anything too major happening, if it somehow made it far enough north or even inshore over SC/MC it could bump rainfall totals quite a bit though.....

I dunno about less humid but highs in the upper 80's is actually below normal for MBY this time of year,so the next 3 days technically will be below normal with highs only forecasted to get to 88-89....average high is 90 here until late July when it eases back down to 89 lol....

Low level cape is pushing 3500-4000 over eastern NC and SE SC.....

Soundings are a bit worrisome for NC tomorrow......latest 3k NAM suggest some discrete supercells and then a few MCS type bowing segments over central and eastern NC.......

Again it depends on where you are plenty of severe weather all over North Carolina today, easily verified the enhanced risk....

Maybe a CC drop with that tornado warning west of Grifton for several frames....

I am going to see Hootie and the Blowfish Friday night at Walnut Creek so of course now there is storms on the Hi-Res for Friday night.....figures the first rain in a month will be the one night I dont want it....

This makes this the 5th season in a row with a named STS or TS before June 1

Make it a 5 year streak, that has to be a record number of consecutive years with a named system before June 1......

From Frazdaddy he can give better details to the where....

The first name storm has happened in April or May in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 so we have a 4 year streak of a named storm before the official start date of the season to keep alive.

Tornado damage reported in Swan Quarter....question is whether it was a waterspout or true tornado....what say you?

There are a ton of reasons to not buy in totally to the NAM, but even if its over done by half thats still a rough day.....really I think its a safe bet that at the minimum we see several broken line segments all of which will produce severe criteria wind gust over a fairly large area, it should not be hard to get some impressive winds to the surface given the wind field aloft......the real question is do we get enough instability to fire those semi discrete supes with a leeside surface low.....

18Z NAM is just a wee bit concerning.........seriously some of the most insane sounding for NC you will ever see....also this line of semi discrete cells over central eastern NC would be exactly the kind of stuff we don't wanna see.....then the line its self is gonna be crazy efficient at getting those 70-80 knt winds just off the surface down.....could be a heck of a event if the NAM is right.

RAH AFD this afternoon highlights the main points rather well....... The beginning of the long term continues to be the time of interest as a maturing mid-level cyclone moves over the Ohio Valley. Friday morning a low level stratus deck will likely be in place which will help to create a differential heating boundary across the CWA. The NAM at this time also indicates a weak confluence boundary over the CWA. These multiple mesoscale boundaries will likely play a key role in how Friday develops. Friday afternoon PWATs will continue to rise and approach 1.7" as strong low level southerly flow helps to advect moisture into central North Carolina. These type of PWATs would be a monthly record. A surface low will then form across western North Carolina Friday afternoon into evening and pinwheel northeast as the mid-level low takes on a negative tilt. SFC to 3 km shear values are again extremely impressive with values around 40 kts. Instability with the system remains in question. MU CAPE values on the GFS are in general less than 1000 J/kg while MU CAPE values on the NAM are more around 2000 J/kg. The main threats with this system will be damaging wind gusts (owing to the extremely strong low level flow), heavy rainfall, and isolated tornadoes. SPC currently has the area outlooked in a Day 3 enhanced.

This setup has tons of potential to be epic or to bust....if we manage to get breaks in the clouds and can get any kind of real instability like the NAM has, plus some kind of surface low reflection over the upstate of SC to back the winds then Friday could be epic.......it could also stay cloudy all day and be a typical skinny cape high shear squall line that gives sporadic bowing segments with winds 60-70 mph.....but overall a meh day.

SPC write up for Friday included this.... ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper trough extending along the MS Valley early Friday morning is expected to continue eastward, maturing into a well-formed mid-latitude cyclone centered over the southern Appalachians by the end of the period. Very strong flow aloft will exist throughout the base of the upper trough, with the strongest flow developing within its eastern periphery Friday afternoon and continuing into Saturday morning. 500-mb flow could exceed 100 kt, which is near record values across the Carolinas and into the mid-Atlantic based on SPC sounding climatology. In contrast to these impressive dynamics, overall thermodynamic environment will be marginal. Given that ample low-level moisture will be in place (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s and 100-mb mean mixing ratios over 12 g/kg), the modest instability is largely a result of warm temperatures aloft and consequent poor lapse rates.

Tor warned cell headed for Hickory.....couplet looked decent over Valdese is weaker now.....

SPC left tomorrow as a mod risk but man things could get ugly fast in Dixie alley and there will unfortunately probably be several long track strong tornados tomorrow, for us here in NC its much more murky....

Latest NAM is pretty nasty for most of the SE this weekend into Monday morning....not sure how bad it would truly be in NC Sunday night but the soundings and stuff look rough....night time tornadic storms are the worse.

84 over 61 waiting to see if these storms will hold up......

Destabilizing quickly in eastern NC.....cape coming up fast, mid level lapse rates are good as usual the big wrench in the cogs is the shear.....20-25knts right now is not exactly blowing the doors off.....