Frog Town

Here’s the issue. It’s like having a warm early May, then a cooldown leading up to the June solstice, and declaring that summer is over and not coming. Playing devil’s advocate, though—winter is cumulative and depends on a cold source and upstream snowpack. Summer doesn’t necessarily rely on those same factors to still turn out hot, even if there’s an early “snowball” effect to cool things down prior to the solstice.

Reality, but still a total buzz kill.

Yesterday we have a negative trough axis modeled for this weekends storm. Today not so much...need that to change or thing dusts south of us and weakens out to sea.

Gunna suck pretty bad for all of our inner child hopes for a classic white Christmas hopes. Praying things turn around Christmas week.

Wouldn't mind a little warm up if it means recentering the mean trough west of here so we can get some big dogs. Mid December 2013 warmed up prior to the epic period that followed. This pattern is cool in like January or February to maintain..

Guidance continuing the trend south...at the very least we'll have less melting.

It appears with the TPV sitting in southern Canada, these things ultimately trend south.

I understand it's the CFS on tropical tidbits, but this is the 1st time it's shown below normal anomalies every week for the next 6. Doesn't appear like this cold is going anywhere soon. Just need the cold centered west of us if we want anything significant. Need the NAO to go slightly negative if you're looking for anything like '13-'14, otherwise it's a repeat of last year but with the snow centered ~3 hundred miles north and about a month earlier..

Until we get the mean trough to set up just up just to our west, we will have a repeat of last year....CAD with dusters here and there, always on the verge of a warm up. Hope that thing can dump just to our west but we need the PNA to cooperate.

The ENS have corrected cold too many times this fall and early winter for me to believe this. Two weeks ago, they had it torching around here. WE shall see I guess...

Hi-Res models coming in a little juiced/phased... Looks like things may bump north a bit with a more neutral trough. We shall see!

You do, or "don't" expect Monday nights to trend down???

Done here in Toledo with just over 3". Not gonna buy the fake radar returns/virga that vanish before impact. Just couldn't overcome the dry air for a major bust and underachiever.

Concerning messaging coming from Northern Indiana Office. They almost lost half their WSW... At this time have made only minor adjustments to forecasted snow amounts through tonight, with just a slightly lower trend in most places. Highest accumulations of 6 to 10 inches through 12Z Sunday are still forecasted for northwest third of the area where some cross- hair signature of mid level lift/DGZ is noted in forecast time/height sections. Some consideration given to transitioning the warning to an advisory south of US Route 24 across far northeast Indiana/northwest Ohio but will allow dayshift to assess trends this morning.

Realist!

Smells a lot like '13-'14 all over again! Everything that year trended colder and snowier. Please, just please.

Weather history buffs, help me out here. It was early December 2000, and we had a setup similar to what we’re seeing now—a hybrid-type low dropping out of Alberta. It was originally forecast to behave a lot like this weekend’s storm, but instead it tracked farther south and nailed Ohio and southern Michigan. I had just graduated college and remember being caught off guard by the shift. Ironically, that December ended up being one for the books, turning into one of the coldest and snowiest on record for these parts. Thanks for starting the thread, Michsnowfreak.

All I needed to hear. It seems like every year people throw out that Winter, but it's nice to hear it from a more critical/educated voice.

You don't see this that often so things can, and have, been worse.

I think a lot of use are suffering from PTSD and a very skeptical despite what all the models are saying. '16-'17 was a year that we chased SSW and blocking all season long for it to end up somewhere else.

Outside of the lake affect-NW Ohioian here-do you think the more southerly track of the AI models has any merit with regards to the synoptic event. They've done pretty well this Summer and Fall.

Curious to see if these new AI models, and their more southern tracks, win out on this one?? Very consistent and did well this Summer and Fall...

What's the problem with a 7.69% accuracy rate??

One trend I've noticed in the past 20 years is we just can't hold a neutral enso, which is ultimately what we all want for winter in this sub. Just when we thought it was gonna happen, La shit head pops back up to give a screaming pacific jet for the late fall/early winter weather. Just sucks. La Nina/El Nino have always been a thing, but the frequency has definitely changed. Curious.

Curious if the pattern is trying to tell us something for the upcoming Winter? When was the last time Summer ended this cool? Obviously more questions than answers but getting a little excited with how things are setting up.