Normandy

Not gonna lie looks much better than I thought it would this early.  Curiously watching today to see how it unfolds, these WSW moving storms can have interesting results intensity wise.

Even after 97L and Our soon to be 98L, GFS is showing two more systems.  November looks to be another September in terms of NS.  Season is the most Hot/Cold I can ever remember

I like a solution of getting close to FL and then getting shoved NE-NNE.  Strong front coming in to sweep it up.

Extremely anomalous setup with a westward moving TC strike on Florida in November

November is the new October and October is the new August.  Pretty wild how active November's have been recently

I think we might have a chance to hit the NS forecast considering how active November seems to be forecasted.  I think we don't get much quality though (maybe one hurricane / major with a handful of TS/STS).

I am going to vote TC.  Looks like there is some kind of Low down there.

Think there could be a case for a post season upgrade in landfall intensity.  If we got legit 75mph sustained on land in the south eyewall, landfall intensity is likely a little more than 75 knots.

I am also interested in that developing system to the WSW of Julia near Panama...Wonder if we get some kind of fujiwhara action or does Julia eventually absorb that system?

Agree.  Unless there is a magical center redevelopment north I think this one stays buried low.  Lets see how it evolves today.

Still very much in the formative stages but you can see it’s there.  Lots of inflow on the south and west side into the MLC. I’d wager by tomorrow morning we have a TD.

As more time passes that vort is looking more like an eddy.  the real show is SE.

The thing off Nicaragua is interesting.  Might be a sleeper system

Yea the UKMET won this storm by miles

you can do whatever you want as a land owner.  Just do not dip into state and federal funds to rebuild.  This includes road access, infrastructure, etc.  that’s what the solution should be (because not building near the water is not even an option for us stupid humans)

Could not agree more.  Their aversion to extreme track changes between advisories and reliance on the GFS rendered their performance in this storm fairly poor for their standards

Like I said in the Ian thread, this hurricane season might change things for Florida and how they operate with respect to development on coastlines.  All of those lows I imagine get dragged north by something.

Good riddance to Ian.  One of the wildest storms I’ve ever tracked.   There are so many lessons to be learned from all agencies / weather enthusiasts from this storm.

one last note to add:  the comparison of charley and Ian is such a great case study of how size really really matters, and how two category 4 150 mph storms are not the same animal. 

Florida either needs to implement policy changes and building codes that prohibit construction in surge zones, or they will have an insurance crisis.  These storms are not going away and are getting more frequent.  Time to stop putting our heads in the sand.

NC/SC Border.  110 MPH.

48 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Just saw drone video footage of homes in both Sanibel and in Cape Coral.  A surprising number of homes look intact.  A testament to the Florida building codes.  As for water damage from surge flooding that’s a different story altogether.  

Andrew’s only gift to Florida is the new building codes it created.  Regarding Ian, it’s structure is that of a superstorm or intense extra tropical low.  Is it possible for Ian to attain category 2/3 intensity with such a structure?  Would like a Mets thoughts

We are at 8/4/2 and have no idea how active October and November are going to be.  A season busting is not one that falls a bit short of expectations.  People need to stop this whole “need to make a claim first just so I can be the first to say if and be right” mentality.  It’s makes you look stupid.

if we are at thanksgiving eating turkey and sitting on 11/5/2….. that’s a bust

the NHC only mistake was giving the GFS credence.  Never in the history of weather has a major hurricane and a trough behaved like the GFS was forecasting.  All of the other models eventually caught on and the GFS was still adamant even as it was approach Cuba.  If the GFS is alone, it’s wrong.

Where can I get that radar image?  very neat

As he has been his entire life, Ian is east of the track.