Normandy

Yeah folks grab your popcorn, this things about to go nuclear.  Finally after all of the angst and pain we have something here.

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The last three named storms have become hurricanes. 

STRUGGLE season beginning to not struggle so much.  Will be fascinating watching the monster HOT tower roll around the eyewall.

RAPID Intensification occurring right now

Sorry for the double post but I saw something that peaked my curiousty and I'd love for a pro met to chime in......in the attached image of FIona what are those super cell / hook echo like convective elements on the SW side of the convective envelope?

Disagree that it has tightened up despite the pressure being lower.  The below recon pattern shows a highly broad windfield, with many wind maxima far away from the actual center.  Not sure this is the structure for deepening.  EDIT:  Seems per radar and recon fix it has the structure of a broad gyre with a tighter center orbiting around.  It could explain some of the strange motion between fixes.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_guad_mf_com.html

I sense a center re-alignment going on.  Right west of Guadeloupe is where most of the turning is now on radar

Peep that WSW motion as well

This might be the first time in Fiona's life that convection is on the west side of the circulation.  Radar below shows the center straddling 16 N or just above it.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_guad_mf_com.html

The above post is exactly what I am looking at too.  We are going to believe this storm, in its current state, is going to slide over this island and immediately start deepening?  What would be the outcome if it is still in the same state it is now after going through Hispanola?  Interested to hear a pro mets thoughts.

I am still dubious of the deepening being shown as its traversing Hispaniola.  2022 has had struggle storms all season and this storm right now is still struggling.  OTS is the morning trend thus far.

Lets see what the morning model suite shows.  One thing I am noticing is that the storm is moving fast and is still highly disorganized. 

This thing is looking well ahead of schedule

Has some definite spin and vorticity but is stretched out east to west (like every system this year)

There aint no sugar coating this.....we are getting fucked HARD this season.  Basin is trash and model runs for rest of the month are trash.

For me its really simple.  I enjoy severe weather and enjoy watching it and following it.  There are two ways to watch severe weather:  Satellite and radar imagery, and in situ documentation via video.  The latter requires severe weather to interact with human beings and their belongings (Hurricanes must hit land to become youtube viral videos.  Tornadoes must form and plow through things to become youtube viral videos).  Now if you ONLY enjoy the former, then the morality argument holds weight.  But I know for sure nobody here is just here for the satellite eyecandy alone....we like to see the power in real life (and if you say you don't, well I simply don't believe you).

We are all pigs in the mud here.   That is why the morality debate to me is pointless.  You can apply this same line of thinking to watching football, MMA, boxing, bullfighting, etc.

Its an interesting question..."Do I want to see people's lives ruined".  If you ask me that on its face, then the answer is no.  But I do want to see a hurricane hit land so I can see videos like:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ar8Usv-Kwvs

on a fundamental level, that is a video of people's lives getting ruined.....and I enjoy watching it.  If you say you don't.....I would say you are being disingenuous.  So I posit the question back to you:  Do you want to see people's lives ruined?

Do we have to do the morality thing......again?

^As a non-met, what I have noticed is that the waves that come off are embedded within outrageous westerly flow.....thus they are basically getting sucked backwards by the wave behind them.  Would be interested to hear a pro-met chime in on this

If the hurricanes don't hit they do NOT EXIST!

I live in Los Angeles lol (praying for remnant low Kay)

GFS at hour 384 is suggestive of an active western basin.  I think October is gonna nail us personally....I easily see something getting going down there and getting yanked north.

5 hours ago, jbenedet said:

The guidance consensus is pretty damn boring on how Earl is just ejected ENE. I believe there’s too much certainty being placed in this. If you dig into the modeling a bit you can reveal this facade though. The individual members of the GEFS does just that.  I mean, ots, sure *eventually*. That’s the forecast right now. But I’m seeing a storm that’s weaker than expected this hour, a fujiwara interaction off the mid Atlantic coast and a Greenland block potentially building over top before Earl is kicked east. If just one of these 3 elements breaks in favor of less progressive, Earl is not disappearing in the next 5 days.

A weaker storm does raise the odds that the fujiwara acts less of a kick and more of a phase, so there’s that. It also mitigates risk of Earl finding a subtle ridge break before the block builds over top. 

Putting impact affects aside, I believe Earl is gonna be kicking around in our region of the Atlantic a lot longer than these op runs are illustrating. Maybe it means little in the end, but at least something to monitor with interest.

Great post.  I had the same thoughts but could never have spoken them like a pro.

Some kind of re-organization going on with the MLC and LLC.

iDUB looking like a strong broken clock!

LOL there is an eye feature on this spinning anti-cyclonically.  That is soooooo 2022