Normandy

My hearts go out to the families who lost loved ones.  Historic system producing historic tornadoes.

Take it FWIW, but the system that will cause these events crashed into California yesterday and Monday….and in my 15 years living in Los Angeles it was the strongest system I’ve experienced.  Some highlights:

- 102 mph wind gust in Valencia, CA

- confirmed tornado in Montebello, CA (strongest observed in the Los Angeles area since 1983).  Rating still TBD but will likely be assigned an EF-0 or EF-1 based on damage produced 

- several 60-90 mph wind gusts in San Francisco due to a bomb cyclone that developed at the center of the low pressure system 

I got my eyes on this one

Seeing the system become a prolific wind maker is not surprising.  Two days ago when I came ashore in Southern California it had quite strong winds even after the low had passed

Just gave the family in DFW the heads up.  I think this one produces some things today

Another thing of note that was strange with this system in so cal…..very cold.  Caused snow in lower mountain elevation and the micro hail I previously mentioned.  I imagine that cold element will have some factor in the severe tomorrow but would love a mets thoughts

The system that will cause tomorrows event just crashed ashore here in Southern California.  Micro sized Hail and strong winds (even continuing on the backside of the low).  I’d watch out tmr. 

Following this now.  Stay safe to those in the affected path

Maybe we can move all the other posts here?  Might get confusing with 2 threads

Following this now.  Look forward to the updates and stay safe to those in the affected regions.

Its not as simple as a Cat 1 can cause this much surge.  This was not an ordinary Category 1 storm.  it was extremely large, and on top of that was interacting with a very strong high pressure system.  Those two elements created a strong pressure gradient that delivered a 200 mile swatch of NW 50-60 MPH winds that drove insane amounts of water into the FL coast.  A similar Cat 1 storm (Katrina) was in a similar situation and evolved much differently as a storm with respect to storm surge.  There have been several hurricanes that have greatly overperformed their storm surge values due to extreme large fetch of winds (Ike, Nicole, Sandy, etc). 

43 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

As to Nicole not being a 'cane at landfall, probably true near the center, but if you noted that report from the space center further north (100 mph gusts above the surface), I think what happened was that strongest winds decoupled from the core when the storm straddled the coast, and were ejected north. So there was a hurricane aspect to the landfall, but very non-classical as to location of that remnant. How are storm surge outcomes north of the Cape? That might be another aspect that was better anticipated from hurricane Nicole than TS Nicole designations. It's sort of like the Sandy landfall in that what the storm was named could mislead some vulnerable coastal residents, in hindsight many thought that Sandy should have been retained as a hurricane to landfall. Some in storm surge situations might have (wrongly) surmised that Sandy wasn't even a hurricane any more, and let their guard down. This was widely discussed IIRC in the days after landfall. Also a storm with a 16' storm surge and 90 mph wind gusts could safely be called a hurricane for a few extra hours. 

This doesn't make any sense.  Having 100 MPH flight level winds does not make a storm a hurricane.  The lack of sustained 60+ MPH winds anywhere near the coast suggests this did not have 75 MPH sustained surface winds.  It is possible for a storm to be stronger aloft and weaker at the surface.  It is also possible for a storm to have weaker flight level winds and have the winds mix down better.  Nothing I am saying here downplays Nicole as a storm.

Has anyone checked to see if Turtlehurricane is ok?  I can't imagine the dissapointment.  Storm underperformed my expectations....agree this was not a cane at landfall.

Appreciate yall

any good radar sites

Category 3 would be an extreme overperform I think.  That being said, I think the NW fetch of winds is going to cause tons of beach erosion and surge damage on the E coast of Florida.  Holding firm low end Cat 2, landfall between WPB and FL.

^ Agreed.  Any deep convection and this is a solid Cat 1/2 cane with this structure.

Two things I am watching with this storm:

1) The structure is already such that it seems to be on the cusp of Hurricane intensity.  I am wondering if intensity wise models are busting low

2) The motions of such storms under strong High pressure systems tend to trend more south than modeled (Ike, Andrew, Katrina, etc). 

If i were to make a call based on the state of the storm now and the two thoughts above:  I say just north of Miami for landfall with Category 2 intensity.

Not gonna lie looks much better than I thought it would this early.  Curiously watching today to see how it unfolds, these WSW moving storms can have interesting results intensity wise.

Even after 97L and Our soon to be 98L, GFS is showing two more systems.  November looks to be another September in terms of NS.  Season is the most Hot/Cold I can ever remember

I like a solution of getting close to FL and then getting shoved NE-NNE.  Strong front coming in to sweep it up.

Extremely anomalous setup with a westward moving TC strike on Florida in November

November is the new October and October is the new August.  Pretty wild how active November's have been recently

I think we might have a chance to hit the NS forecast considering how active November seems to be forecasted.  I think we don't get much quality though (maybe one hurricane / major with a handful of TS/STS).

I am going to vote TC.  Looks like there is some kind of Low down there.