Normandy

Hoping it moves hard right to avoid Alexandria

Really does have incredible structure on radar.  The south has been bringing it this year

2 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Mkay. So, Mister, er, Normandy, that "dumbass", is a professional forecaster, who gets paid to predict the weather. And I have a met degree--and I don't work in the field so I don't even claim it on my profile, because *I* don't feel that my posts warrant that level of "respect" per se. Let's not affront the folks who lend this site anything more than weather-foamer status. Because let's be real--without actual forecasters and mets, this site is a bunch of people fascinated by severe weather parroting what the SPC, and NWS say, or someone who knows what they're discussing, AFTER they've discussed it, as though they are somehow themselves competent. As though we cannot all read SPC and NWS posts or already have them open in another tab.

Let's avoid prognosticating and correlating a long tracking supercell, to the most deadly, prolific, and dangerous tornado...EVER. This is not that. Period. Trying to compare this storm to doomsday, demeans the caliber of our collective intellect on this forum and site. This is a bad storm, producing damage. It is not the tri-state tornado. Many supercells persist across several states, including cycling tornadic ones. This is a textbook supercell persisting in a good environment and creating its own microscale meteorological climate. This happens several times each year. Tomorrow, or late tonight, we will find out exactly where, and how much, damage has been done. I do NOT agree with the idea that this tornado has been down the entire time, and I will take that bet with a willingness to be wrong. There is not a continuous line of damage reports, or debris signatures, and I've noted several cyclings of the circulation including it being cut off a few times as the strong circulation continues to entrain its own cold outflow. 

 

More generally--it would improve the scientific credulity of this discussion, if we can *all* assume that we are all competent enough to watch RadarScope, SPC, and NWS postings (you know, stuff I'd expect of a HS student), and instead, discuss the more specific and esoteric things...like the environment, soundings, hodographs, downstream forecasting, damage reports etc. Not stuff that we can all get elsewhere. It doesn't show knowledge, it does not impress anyone, it wastes space, and doesn't further my, or anyone else's understanding. 

Rant.end(this). // end rant. 

I'm so sorry you wasted so much time typing that.  You guys need to lighten up a little.  I know Calderon is not a dumbass.  I know he has insane amounts of knowledge.  I know this was not the tri state tornado.

When y'all get in these events your asses get tight lol.  All love Calderon

Sorry.  I wanted to believe. Carry on

Ruthless crowd tnight.  Gotta watch those keystrokes.  I bet it crosses into Missisippi.  New tri state tornado here we come

I don't count missisipi as a state. .. 

Just now, Calderon said:

But it's only crossed 2...

Yes dumbass when it crosses Alabama it will be three. Jesus christ

I don't mean tri state intensity. Just crossing three states.  Relax yall

New tri state tornado?

While ratings for tornadoes are fun for speculation, I take them less seriously than hurricane ratings since it is purely damage based.  And also ever since the el Reno tornado was not upgraded based upon in situ Doppler estimates just because it did not produce EF-5 damage.  Judging from the damage pictures it's likely the tornado was anywhere between EF3 and EF5, likely oscillating in strength very frequently as it moved along it's path

When people see houses wiped clean they freak, but most don't understand how easy it is for 140 mph wind with extreme upward motion to remove A small wood frame structure from it's foundation.  Woods lack of rigidity hurts with tornados, where In earthquakes it actually helps.  

That's one of the best looking supercells I have ever seen

There was a def calm during the gas station video. Thats why the guy filming repeatedly says "were good". There was also two different witness statements posted here who said there was a calm in the center as well. The link is on this thread, Ill go back and find it on Tuesday if no one else has.

Honestly it wouldn't surprise me. From what I have learned so far about tornadoes is that they seem to parallel tropical cyclones in some ways. This one especially because it was wrapped in an envelope of high winds. Wouldn't really surprise me if the center was calm like they eye of a strong hurricane.

I was thinking earlier, going through Hurricane Wilma while she was 884 mbs wouldn't be much different than the Joplin tornado. It would only be slightly wider damage swath lol.

I still find the whole calm in the middle like an eye, the most interesting piece of the storm. I have yet to see one person explain why or how that happened beyond a guess. Giving a presentation to Montgomery College and Public Schools tomorrow on lessons learned from this one.

What accounts suggest there was a calm in the center of the tornado? From every video I've seen (One on the lawn and gas station), there was no actual calm. There was an initial burst of high wind (like 70 - 100 mph), followed by the tornado which raged continuously until passing. I've only gathered from discussion that the tornado was wrapped in an envelope of high winds.

In Jeff's video you can see how strong the winds were far from the wedge (2:24 or so). Very interesting how it had an intense core surrounded by damaging winds....almost sounds like a tropical cyclone on a super micro-scale.

For me these two videos tell the story of Joplin's terror.

First one shows the experience riding it out (audio only though), second one shows what actually happened to the gas station. Incredible that they survived a direct hit from an EF-5 tornado (I'd say this is EF-4 / EF-5 damage, the twisted and mangled steel is beyond incredible).

The Hospital damage is a great case study of what violent tornadoes could do to sturdy and well built structures. Large high-rises will remain standing, but completely gutted and denuded in some spots (like the top where only the steel frame is visible). Does anyone know if the hospital is salvageable?