Normandy

Seems like this is going to be less of a Fujiwhara and absorption and more of a send Rina north first and the Philippe follows

Looking at the GFS vs Euro, Phillipe and 91L hold the key to the future of this system in my opinion.  The Euro is sending both aforementioned systems much further west.  if the Euro is correct there are too many players on the field for this subtropical system to develop.  if the GFS is correct and both 91L and Philippe recurve together, that opens up the western basin for this subtropical system.

I don’t see too much potential with this one beyond Ophelia.  I see potential for a subtropical storm but not something of hurricane strength because of cooler waters and this coming in at a higher latitude.  Will def still track though.  The season of east coast lows continues!

61 sustained is impressive for a system labeled 70 mph.

Correct me if I’m wrong but the waters Ophelia are in now we’re not really touched by Lee.  Lee’s wake is well east no?  In any event fantastic tropical transitioning going on, we are lucky to have it occur so close to land so it can be documented in radar

There has been a lot of discussion in whether or not this should be classified because it has a front attached to it.  I’m wondering at what point would the NHC ignore this (let’s say if they find hurricane intensity winds eventually).  Do you all think the NHC would ignore the frontal nature and just name it anyway for public awareness?  Not saying that happens here but just as a discussion point

8 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Where has Ldub been?????? I guess he lost faith after his 0/0/0 august forecast. Expect his return after Nigel goes extra trop and we have a brief break. 
I think this season is a big sign of what’s to come in the future. Record warm OHC overwhelms traditional teleconnections.

This is the most super interesting thing to me too.  If El Niño is no longer a hurricane suppressant……then what are we looking at in terms of future hurricane seasons?  What does a La Niña look like with record warmth?  What does neutral look like?Would love met thoughts.

Now THIS is a setup that can crush yall

My point is this.  My man said on 9/19 that the MDR is relaxing and implying that the MDR is shutting down.  Models all show a very active MDR the next 8-10 days.  This same line if thinking was used to assume the last four weeks would not happen when all seasonal models said it would.  If modeling is showing an active MDR why imply El Niño is going to hamper it when there has been zero evidence of traditional El Niño impacts to hurricane development this year?
 

 You are right climo does begin to shut down the MDR but that goes without saying.  it’ll be interesting the studies done on this season

On 9/19/2023 at 5:23 AM, NorthHillsWx said:

FINALLY the MDR is showing signs or relaxing. Increasing shear values start in the next 8-10 days and models are mixed on development until then. It’s been a wild ride for an El Niño year and one of the most active MDR seasons in awhile (recency bias). Thankfully the El Niño steering was in place allowing all of the storms to recurve. I think our attention rightfully turns to the NW Caribbean/homegrown scenarios for the rest of the season.

Not sure what you are seeing.  We have a major hurricane threat for the islands In next 8 days with an additional system behind it in the GFS.  There are no signs of the MDR shutting down until early to mid October.  People have gotta let the El Niño go lol it has lost.  Clearly something else is going on that is allowing the basin to produce in an epic fashion despite this El Niño.

While there euro and GFS disagree on intensity, one thing they do agree on is the likelihood of an enhanced wind jet north of the center spreading into the mid Atlantic.  Two things I’m watching: how quickly it organizes before approaching the coast and how far east does the low track.

An eastern shift here is the rare occurrence where it could yield to a stronger landfall further north.  Nice little sleeper system here

The MDR is fools gold for landfalls this year.  Lee was the closest chance we had.  That being said this will continue train of cyclones kicking the Turkey shit out of El Niño

That’s nonsense thinking.  That’s like saying there’s no agency in the world that could have prevented the 60,000 people who died in Katrina because the NHC doesn’t exist.  Agencies give warnings and warnings lower risk of mass casualty.  Don’t have a put your head in the sand and throw your hands up mentality.

I would not characterize them as infrequent anymore.  They happen every year at this point and need to be tracked by an agency

Jesus man this storm is either gonna hit y’all and be the end of y’all.  Or miss y’all and be the end of y’all.  These models are wild!

5 minutes ago, Twitching Trucks said:

Jesus H Christ. You know what I love? Wading through dozens of bickering fool posts about who wants the end of the world and who doesn’t, just to get the one out of 10 that actually discuss weather and the science behind it. I’m not even knowledgeable enough to be called a neophyte here, but I love the weather…all the weather. It also effects my job, so I come down to these first 3 layers of hell to gain further insight about it…but damn, it’s getting painful to glean the useful bits out. Kick me out of you want, call me all of the name, I don’t really care, but you guys are nearly intolerable.


.

Yea this is the weeds in here if you want science go to the tropical analysis thread

I see why he melted down lol as a causal observer y’all fools are crazy. everybody and they momma here want another 38, and y’all gaslighting people who are interested as if y’all aren’t is wild lol

Preach!

The mental gymnastics you all are performing with this storm is hilarious.  You can tell it’s been a while for y’all.  Enjoy this one!

The more I analyze the Euro and the current setting...Its solution makes sense and I see how it could play out.  Currently The following things are happening:

- Lee is a powerful major hurricane that is dealing with shear, but is also connected to a poleward outflow jet that is providing excellent divergence (thus the explosive convection).

- Margot is a weak disorganized TS that is being substantially sheared by Lee's outflow jet.  This shear will only strengthen tomorrow once Lee intensifies further.  Convection will always keep Margot's low east because of said shear.  This will increase the distance between them and is why the Euro solution occurs. 

Looking forward to the models runs later today.

Margot is the key to Lee impacting land.  Models that have enough separation between the two systems threaten either Canada or NE.  The timing of troughs will depend on which one that is, but if Margot is not close enough to draw this more east once it turns north I like this setup for landfall.  

Models with the most degrees of separation between Margot and Lee are the ones that’s strike land.  Not a surprising run there 

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

400 hPa upper mid-level flow that had been undercutting the canopy and disrupting Lee's core is starting to ease up. It is still there; however, updrafts are strong as Lee remains an intense vortex with strong surface convergence. It doesn't take much backing down of this shear or having the flow come into more alignment with the vector of steering motion for Lee's eyewall to recover. You can make this out very clearly with lightning data as CBs regain a foothold on the core. The core will still battle some tonight. But shear will continue to lessen through Saturday, I would expect another round of RI by Sunday. I'm not saying Lee will reach its previous peak, but it will eventually be in a favorable environment for several days as it pushes WNW. It should look pretty impressive by Sunday afternoon and will likely bottom back out in the 930s. The gradient may not be as tight, so I don't know if it will achieve Category 5 windspeeds again. It may end up with a large eye, though.

Whats interesting is the lighting around the core shows a westward drift. 

14 hours ago, Sportybx said:

In the area around NYC , where would landfall need to be for it to be to see hurricane conditions ?!? 

To answer your question without a weenie tag….you basically need a landfall south of jersey with the cane moving north.  Once the cane is passing east and moving north cane conditions go out the window even if it passes close.  Go see what the conditions were in NYC when the 1938 cane passed just east.  TS winds (and that was the mother of NE canes)