Normandy

This is a crazy odd storm structurally.  Certainly due to the heavy shear

It’s not unreasonable.  Guidance that keeps this away from the Yucatan have a strong system hitting land.  If the low stays offshore and has 90 hours over water, getting a strong to major hurricane isn’t even a high ceiling.  Let’s see how it plays out though I staked my claim and the crow may come!

Looking at trends tonight I’m upping my original call to a strong to major hurricane.  Convection is already expansive and cyclonic turning is very robust.  Further east development of convection leads me to think interaction with the Yucatan will be minimal.   This is developing in the same manner Harold did except it has more time over water.  I Like 110 mph into FL near Tampa. 

Early thoughts:  vorticity seems to be setting up further east and north from the coast, leading me to think we get a stronger landfall out of this as interaction with the Yucatán might be limited.  I like the idea of a hurricane strike out of this.  Somewhere on the FL peninsula North of Miami. 

There is certainly an argument for hurricane intensity at landfall based on obs and radar data.  It was wrapping up in a VERY rapid manner at landfall

I would watch the area north of Panama right now.  Tons of convection and a lot of surface convergence.  It appears this might be a piece of energy that was shed westward out of franklins intense convective bursts yesterday and last night

I’m not certain a center reforms.  A new burst has occurred where recon currently fixed it (SE of the previous location).  Track implications are certain with this wild motion.  Interesting to watch unfold

How was Gert a joke? It’s had an LLC for days and has been producing consistent convection.  I get that y’all want your El Niño numbers but science is science guys.

Starting to get some orographic enhancement from the San Bernardino mountains.  Solid band of rain me of LA and E if LA

here in so cal there have been essentially zero winds.  The gradient of the storm is such that the SW US gets the TS winds as stated above

Felt the earthquake was a solid shake. Main show is starting in Los Angeles.   Big band starting to establish itself over the western parts of the city

In Los Angeles we are already getting good rains with the band ahead of the low.  We are currently in a lull as we are in the space between the two competing lows, but as Hillary draws closer winds will turn offshore and I expect heavy training bands to set up tonight in advance of the center. 

Sleeper system potentially considering its current organizational trend.  Like the idea of a strong TS landfall out of this 

The NHC’s lack of propensity to name obvious tropical cyclones is starting to get annoying.  It took them far too long to name Emily and the day before TD 6.  Just because it’s in the open ocean doesn’t mean you don’t initiate advisories when it’s an obvious TC

Seems like they found a steady state system based on the latest NHC update.  Either way weakening should start soon.  Already seeing signs on the NW side

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Once again, historic rainfall over the “perma” drought. Get away from the runoff areas and waterways and let this storm fix 15 years of drought in a few days. This is the absolute best thing that could have happened for the southwest, I’m tired of everyone putting a negative spin on something that (when the rain ends) will be the best thing that’s happened in a decade to help the local environment 

It’s hard to get away from run off areas because humans build near and around them (see the LA river for example).  it can’t be understated that this is a big hydro threat to so cal and the SW

The recon passes thus far show a very broad wind field and loose gradient around the center, which makes sense considering the storm is in the process of undergoing an ERC.  Further strengthening would be tough since it’s already pretty deep of a system and broad, however the storm is very well ventilated aloft and is drawing moisture from the south and Baja of California.  Therefore I wouldn’t rule it out.  

bottom line is the broad windfield will make it such that TS winds and heavy rains will arrive well before the center will.  There won’t be time for this to spin down because of cold waters as impacts will be felt while the center is still 300 (or more) miles south. 

depending on how the track plays out, this could be a hydro disaster for Los angeles.  If it comes in farther west and puts 6 inches of rain down in one day……I’m not even sure the Los Angeles river would stay in its banks.  Crazy times.

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Looks like the forward speed slows down just enough around 30N that things fall apart on final approach. Still would be a very impactful rain/wind event. Not sure how this would compare to some of the strong winter storms that hit California regularly. I know those are generally further North but they do sometimes impact areas close to LA.

To answer your question bluntly: there is no comparison between a TC and our winter storms.  The strongest winter storms put down 30 sustained with gusts in the 60’s.  Maybe 2 inches of rain.  A direct tc strike puts a little more wind and double to the rain.  The second part is what will be devastating.  The wind we can deal with

That’s big deal if verified.  The rain alone is enough to be record setting.  The wind is the cherry on top.  I’m officially on alert as a resident of LA

There might need to be serious convos about a tropical cyclone strike on so cal

If the GFS is to be believed, we see three named storms at least before august ends. Other model consensus also coming into agreement.  The bell has been rung!

Agree the pot is getting hot and storms are going to form soon.  Not seeing an august shut out at all based on current modeling.  Even a look at satellite one can see very discernible waves / future lows in the gulf and near the Bahamas.  

11 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

More Autumn/Winter tropical cyclones (of limited intensity because late October through January storms that form past the point of when conditions are favorable for stronger storms).  And heat transfer from the tropics/subtropics from higher dewpoint/theta-e air from the tropic/subtropics into winter and spring storms.  If winter tornado outbreaks becoming more common is a definition of 'wild weather', it might be happening already.  December Kentucky tornado outbreaks, January having the strongest tornado in Harris County (South Houston/Pasadena) in 30 years.

My running theory is that as waters warm and stay warm later into the winter months, nor’easters will start to become more powerful and damaging (basically superstorm Sandy’s become more frequent) .  Fun speculation during these dog days of hurricane summer 

It’s less about name wasting and more about consistency.  97L to my untrained eye looks like more than a frontal low.  I’ve seen stuff like this named before.  Very deep convection and obvious LLC.