Normandy

Anybody got any insight into why recons is doing multiple rapid fire passes like they are?  I’m not objecting because hey more data the better but this is a bit unusual no?

Alright gentlemen it’s that time.  Let’s make our calls for what recon finds.  I’m going with:

winds: 144 kts flight level

Pressure: 929 mbs

This storm is going to cost people memberships lol.  It’s gonna get real crazy in the next few days and Godspeed to mods in the main thread lmao

The system to the east of Lee the GFS is developing is an issue.  It’s boosting ridging in top of Lee, which is pushing it further west

The coffers are full in the ATL and El Niño is getting the Turkey shit kicked out of it 

While it certainly has good vorticity it’s still very broad.  This curved band is interesting on its west side

If we are being honest this is a pretty good setup for an east coast strike.  Blocking high to the NE and big hurricane moving NW.  the only thing missing is a strong trough to pull it in, but I think the signal is there for a stressful few days upcoming.

Might as well go ahead and start the banter thread now lol

I would argue we have a pattern for a north oriented recurve.  There is a blocking high to the storms NE, it just does not have a strong trough to tug it in to the coast.  Still so much to be determined there.   
 

More interesting to me than long term track are short term trends.  The storm is still very broad and moving quite quickly west.  ASCAT just hit the system and shows it near 11N.

Now THAT is a a micro cane! 

The only mildly interesting thing to watch is if Idalia gets off the coast earlier and / or unexpectedly depeens.  Other than that the main show ended and everyone is decompressing I’m sure.

I was going to mention this is hauling east now.  Will be interesting to see if it’s a trend or just a speed bump.  If I’m in Tallahassee i feel good now though

Monster storm!  Radar presentation in the eyewall is off the charts right now.  Cell motion being sucked into the NW eyewall is crazy to see.  Will be a pleasure tracking with you all tonight 

The first pass is interesting because it’s suggestive of a storm that is extremely imbalanced but not necessarily weak.  Large swatch of strong flight level winds and the wind gradient was steep exiting into the SE eyewall.  As this burst continues will be interesting to see winds in the other quads.  

franklin’s spike in intensity has strengthened the ridge between Idalia and itself, which is pushing Idalia further left in the short term.  If I’m in Tallahassee I’m a bit nervous.  As it’s been stated the storm is looking excellent and is most certainly going to strike as a major.  Only question is how strong (and I’m seeing upper cat 4)

Not crazy at all to presume a cane when recons gets there.  It’s very clearly in a RI cycle now

Explosive convective development ongoing.  This is so far ahead of schedule it’s honestly frightening.

It’s not often you get something this well organized with this much time over jet fuel. impressive outflow in all quadrants.  It’s a beast of a cyclone in the making.  Still like near tampa for landfall but I’m seeing the east shifts that usually occur with these setups.  That’s being said there is enough rushing to the east to keep this north of fort myers I think. 

The center drop is suggestive of a very healthy circulation despite being exposed right now.  I would expect a big convective burst soon.

I would keep an eye on the southern convective blow up.  It is developing an inflow tail which leads me to believe it might become dominant as it rotates up around the edge of the gyre.

Evening thoughts remain unchanged from yesterday.  The mean cyclonic center of the storm is sufficiently off the coast that I think steady deepening will occur over tomorrow as it meanders near the Yucatan. I can easily see a strong TS approaching hurricane status before it turns northward.

Once it turns north, you have an excellent setup for a major hurricane strike:  deep ULL to the west and high to the east, with a poleward jet developing on approach to the coast.  While the ingredients are not identical, there are several hurricanes with this type of setup that have deepened upon approach to the gulf coast / FL peninsula.  Still like my call of a major into the area just north of Tampa.

Agree with you.  Wild model swings and a very chaotic pattern is indeed fascinating to watch

Franklin appears to have been one of these storms where once shear let go it instantly became a strong hurricane.  Perhaps the mid level vortex was already very strong and the shear was simply displacing it east.  Fascinating to watch unfold!

Agree with all.  No question this is a tropical cyclone and the NHC should to pull the trigger soon.  Looks too good on all levels (banding, outflow, convection, radar presentation).  

Morning trends make it very obvious that this is consolidating further east, and I’m  not sure what is going to drive this west into the yucatan as models are suggesting.  Still like the idea of a major hurricane into the FL peninsula somewhere near Tampa.