Normandy

South of Tampa, north of fort myers.  150 mph.

Not THAT gutsy.  When I say just south, I'm basically saying the eye could go over Tampa considering angle of approach.  I'm more of the belief the trough tugs this further east than being modeled (and kind of being verified right now in real time as its a bit east of the forecast track).  Even a further south solution is not a large track error (50 miles means much more in this case than typical 90 degree approach).

This is as dicey of a situation as you can get for Tampa.  I still think it comes in just south but Jesus its gonna be close.

Windfield is greatly expanded with a second wind maxima already detected

I am watching that giant curved band on the north side very closely.  Lots of motion in those cells suggesting that we might have large core developing.

Oh yeah i'm firing up the IPAs and getting ready for a show tonight.  Ian going nuts

Going to be a hectic day in Tampa tomorrow.  HOT HOT towers rotating around the center now.

I am note sure what is legend or lore of Tampa avoid hurricanes.....but the only way Tampa avoids this hurricane is a miss to the south.  Not gonna go far enough west to avoid the peninsula.

The Isle of Youth is a good benchmark for which part of the Peninsula deals with this I think.  Any track west means Tampa and north.  Any track over or east means SE/SW FL.  Still not sold on Panhandle whatsoever (and GFS seems to moving away from that idea also).

GFS is slowly coming to the party. Ian is also starting to crank a little with a nice curved band structure evident.

^That's a good thread right there thanks for sharing.  Perhaps the multiple vorticies yesterday brought the dry air in?

I was definitely on the RI train last night...fooled me for sure.  That being said, looking at it now the low level center seems very defined (which it wasn't yesterday despite good convection).

This might be the formative stages of the CDO.  Big convection going up.

^ Cosign.  If the upper level winds are strong enough to shear a strong hurricane, why wouldn't they be strong enough to turn it NE?  I could understand the solution if the storm was a middling TS (maybe it could get decoupled).....it just doesn't make sense in this scenario with a major hurricane coming out of the WCAR.  Would like a mets input, maybe I am out to lunch.

I'm still thinking SW / SE FL (Maybe near or just south of Tampa).  Usually when a strong trough and strong hurricane get this close to one another the hurricane turns NE.  That coupled with the N center consolidation, not seeing the west solutions panning out.  That's the beauty of the tropics though, we simply have to wait and see.

The GFS solution of reformation is definitely off the table now.  Strong burst near the LLC with obvious strong NW and N inflow into the convection.  The MLC is dying off with nothing but westerlies beneath.

This likely will give good insight into what the 1938 hurricane looked like.

You can see right now on satellite what the GFS is trying to do.  There is an MLC further SW that is very apparent, however the current LLC ain't going away.  Brand new convection already firing near it.

The ICON is downright terrifying.  East across the FL peninsula with a stall over the Atlantic just east of Florida.  Then meanders north into the Carolinas (and eventually up the east coast).  Does all this while staying a major hurricane.  Wild times ahead.

Has to be one of the most gigantic wind fields in recent memory.  Putting 99 MPH gusts on Bermuda while passing 50 miles north is wild.

East Coast crusher.  Gonna be a lot of sleepless nights coming up.

All we can do is wait for the Euro.  God bless the NHC and their forecasters.

Moving very slowly across FL with a big ridge over head.  Might come back west.

GFS caving big time

Easily a TD.  NHC might as well start advisories.