Normandy

Nah that thing is something more than just ITCZ disturbance right now......

The GFS with another spectacular run.  Lows flying left and right everywhere in each basin.  Straight chaos.

In terms of modern hurricanes, to this day it still is King.  No other hurricane has produced wind damage and wind measurements like this hurricane did.  Some highlights for me:

- 115 MPH sustained / 164 MPH gust measured at NHC (outside of the eyewall, and failure occurring before the worst conditions arrive)

- 114 MPH sustained for 30 minutes at Key Largo in the South Eyewall (no failure here, but gives insight into max winds in the N eyewall assuming forward motion (approx 154 mph for 30 minutes give or take)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/04landsea.pdf

The GFS basically stalling and retrograding multiple waves in the MDR is bizarre.

You ain't lying this run is strung out like a heroine addict

Yea that might break the the forums if that verified.

Yea whiffed on this one.  on to the next!

Best it has ever looked.  very strong mid to low level circulation now it would seem.

Indeed most of the vorticity is still above the surface.  Recon was flying very low investigating this.

This one is screaming over performer to me.  Lets see what recon finds.

Me thinks we get Danielle out of this.  its well organized enough right now and has a lot of time over water

The vort max further norther is the one I would watch.  Seems to be more dominant

Not all all crazy for watching this homebrew wave.  Its further north than modeled and already has great vorticity.

What's the point of looking at models then?  Why are we even here?

See you in November iduB!  The bell has been rung.  GFS nails the Gulf Coast with the seasons first major.

Might have another homebrew situation occurring of the Great Bend of Florida.  This one would have more water in front of it

The vort max ESE of Brownsville might be the one to watch

Starting to look very good on radar.  Odds are up this gets a name I think

if the GFS is to be believed, August will still pump out at least 4 NS.  The MDR is absolutely cooked though, or it will have an absurdly late start.

The bad news.....98L is vanishing.

The good news....look off the SE coast.

The only negative factor I see (and it seems like its a general issue with systems this year)....we have two areas of of competing vorticity..  I see one due south of Louisiana and another east of Brownsville

This GOM system i think might be slept on.  Looking at the cloud fields over Texas and Louisiana, there seems to be a very large developing low SSW of New Orleans.

Eating my popcorn watching this unfold.  Idub looking strong today!

The models showing so little Cape Verde activity is interesting (and spooky, because perhaps this will be a west based peak season).  Will have to watch closely and see if this comes to fruition over the rest of the month. 

I easily see a path to 18 / 8 / 5.  September alone can produce nearly half of these numbers when things get going.  Additionally we have no idea what November is going to look like.