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Normandy Ho

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Everything posted by Normandy Ho

  1. Normandy Ho
    GFS is a goddam mess. No consistency (and I’m not faulting the model it’s just output is chaotic which might be indicative of the pattern).
  2. Normandy Ho
    I hear that. I guess I just figure pull the trigger since it’s obvious it will eventually become a TC (get ahead of warnings since you have to write an advisory anyway)
  3. Normandy Ho
    A PTC? Come on NHC be better
  4. Normandy Ho
    Upgrade is imminent
  5. Normandy Ho
    The MCV of the coast to me looks to be the catalyst. The further it slides east the more time over water this would get
  6. Normandy Ho
    Disagree on 94L. This should have already been a TC
  7. Normandy Ho
    Current motion def brings this over NO. Sliding way east now
  8. Normandy Ho
    Excellent radar presentation. Almost looks like a giant right moving supercell with a hook echo. Velocities are also very strong around the core. Seems to be ramping up in the face of shear
  9. Normandy Ho
    For sure. There is still a broad gyre but that center is tight enough that I think it becomes dominant.
  10. Normandy Ho
    No question this is the center. Very clear eye like feature
  11. Normandy Ho
    Was just about to call that feature out. Very obvious developing wave there passing through the windwards. Would be interesting to see obs and radar out of there
  12. Normandy Ho
    The explosive convection is telling. Ceiling is high for this one. If it can catch a positive trough interaction (and let’s be honest the more convection produces the better chance that happens) this could go nuclear. Look at the outflow in all quads. Upper level support is great. in terms of track im also east. I think this gets very strong and thus I think it gets yanked NE fairly briskly and feels that weakness. New Orleans would be at risk if this plays out
  13. Normandy Ho
    Very strong inflow coming into this new burst. Still have multiple centers though but the windfield on the west side is already stout. Very WPAC like look
  14. Normandy Ho
    I don’t have the charts to prove this, but this feels a hell of a lot like the setup of hurricane opal (but further west). Cyclone forms deep in the BOC and gets pulled north/northeast. I’m bullish on this one. I actually like the chances of a major out of this. The quality train continues
  15. Normandy Ho
    ^not sure about the inhibiting factors. The models are showing the deepening fast as it accelerates NE. The fast NE motion might yield a more positive interaction with the jet streak to its north (less shear)
  16. Normandy Ho
    If I’m a betting man I’m thinking eastern LA. I like the idea of a sharper hook east
  17. Normandy Ho
    Think they need to pull the trigger on this one. Very evident circ with deep convection now.
  18. Normandy Ho
    ^appreciate the post and sentiment but part of me feels like that’s a cultural thing. I’ve seen several videos of Asian folks out and about during typhoons over the years. I think they have a different relationship with typhoons than we do with hurricanes in America. Not saying it’s right or wrong just an observation of mine
  19. Normandy Ho
    Agree I think we get a name out of this gulf system. Very clear low on radar and satellite just offshore
  20. Normandy Ho
    Alright let’s bRIng in some positive energy and focus on the now. Our wave in the Caribbean is at least firing convection and showing signs of life. If we get a good d max, maybe we can finally get something to pop. It’s got a small window before the Yucatán but let’s see if it can take advantage
  21. Normandy Ho
    The all hell breaking loose will come. But numbers into the 20s is gone. The season can’t produce enough quantity. However I’m very nervous as there still is a lot of energy I’m the tropics that have yet to be evacuated, and eventually the storms will have to form to take care of that. Once they form they could be absolutely explosive. Got to wait and see but this is hella interesting
  22. Normandy Ho
    Yea this season is going to humble many many a meterologist. Something’s wrong (or the climate models busted substantially)
  23. Normandy Ho
    New GFS crushes Texas. Might be times for a thread
  24. Normandy Ho
    GFS starting to show the lid coming off now. The bears are going home soon
  25. Normandy Ho
    To be fair it is august 20th. The bears have a reason to howl right now. My fear is when the lid comes off, it will be frightening (multiple major hurricanes threats at once)
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