Hoosier

Yeah, the threat in northern IL looks as decent if not better than where the ENH is currently placed.

Dews coming in under guidance would temper instability some, as has been mentioned in the discussions. Haven't checked to see how the CAMs are handling dews.

Upgraded to enhanced farther south/west Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS INTO A PORTION OF THE MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon central and eastern Kansas, northern Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois and extreme southeast Iowa. Other more isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the southern through central High Plains. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough now over the northern High Plains will become absorbed within the amplifying northern stream and move southeast through the Midwest region Saturday. Cold front initially from the upper Great Lakes through western KS will move southeast, and by early evening should extend from the southern Great Lakes, northern MO into southeast CO where it will likely stall. ...Central Plains through the Midwest regions... The atmosphere from KS through the Midwest is expected to become moderately to strongly unstable Saturday afternoon with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE supported by the northeast advection of low-mid 60s F dewpoints through the warm sector beneath plume of steeper (7-7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) lapse rates. Some model solutions are overdone with low-level dewpoints by several degrees, apparently due to excessive evapotranspiration, but correcting for this still supports moderate to strong instability as the surface layer warms during the afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to initiate along the cold front by mid afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes and the cap weakens. Northwesterly winds will strengthen to 40+ kt at 500 mb, especially from eastern KS through central IL as height gradient increases in association with the amplifying upper trough. This will support 35-40 kt effective bulk shear. Both supercell and multicell storm modes are expected with initial discrete storms eventually consolidating into lines or clusters as they spread southeast. Damaging wind and large hail will be the main threats. ...Southern High Plains... Storms are expected to once again develop over the higher terrain of NM and southwest TX and subsequently spread east into the High Plains. Have introduced a slight risk over this region where a belt of somewhat stronger winds aloft and moderate instability will promote a parameter space sufficient for a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% - Enhanced ..Dial.. 05/31/2019

It does look slight risk worthy.

So this is cool. You can plot the SPC outlooks over a period of time by WFO/State/County. It gives the highest risk level for each day. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=201 A lot of neat features besides the outlooks to play with in the dropdown box, too.

Early week does appear to have some potential. Just focusing on Monday for now, the warm frontal zone could get interesting. Will probably be dealing with storms early in the day though which could muddle things.

Been a tough day. The weakly forced setups are more prone to getting derailed, generally speaking.

New LOT afd is pretty pessimistic.

SPC added an ENH/30% wind area on the new outlook. Not clear to me how widespread of a wind threat will evolve so I'm gonna hold my tongue from further comment lol.

HRRR seems to be on a downward trend with the early evening development in the area though. That was my reasoning earlier for central/southern LOT cwa potentially being favored a bit... it was assuming vigorous (re)development along the warm front from around now through the next few hours but that is looking iffy.

Current

They have it as radar indicated in the warning update.

Hopefully we can get something to go nearby in the next hour or two. If not then it will be a long wait.

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 556 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... 553 PM CDT The weather forecast over the next 12+ hours remains fairly complicated, and uncertainties abound mainly due to the weak nature of large-scale forcing for ascent. While a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms certainly exists this evening and into the nighttime hours, how this threat materializes remains tied to mainly subtle mesoscale processes and subtle waves of synoptic ascent which are both difficult to diagnose and pinpoint with much certainty. Surface analysis late this afternoon depicts a northwest to southeast arcing warm front--reinforced by this morning`s convection which laid out an outflow boundary--likely just entering portions of La Salle, Livingston, and Ford Counties. Dewpoints immediately to the south of this boundary jump into the 70s with breezy south to south-southwesterly winds, and this seems to be demarcated pretty well by an area of bubbling Cumulus and HCRs which are steadily building northward. Recent RAP soundings and SPC mesoanalysis reveal that this is a relatively high-quality warm sector, with mean mixing ratios pushing 16 g/kg and decent moisture through a fairly deep layer (up to 700 mb). An earlier tornadic supercell, which was riding along the northern extent of this warm frontal boundary, quickly dissipated a few hours ago as it approached Bloomington, likely as it encountered a pocket of warmer air aloft with 700 mb temperatures analyzed at +9 to +10C. This is indicative of lingering capping, which has thus far suppressed any additional convective initiation attempts in the warm sector. Recent GOES-16 visible satellite loops reveal some towering Cu development taking place across West Central Illinois, however, where capping is lower due to cooler temperatures aloft. Farther to our west, an additional area of bubbling cumulus has been noted across central and eastern Iowa, although recent radar trends suggest incipient updrafts are struggling to develop. Large scale forcing for ascent is not strong here, but modest mid-level height falls (20-40 m/12 hours) are noted in recent analyses nosing into far northwestern Iowa at the leading edge of a very subtle shortwave. It`s possible some lingering mesoscale subsidence is still in place across eastern Iowa in the wake of this morning`s MCS, tempering additional robust convective development at this juncture, but conditions do appear favorable for robust updraft development over the next few hours. With this all laid out, it does appear there may be two favored corridors for potential convective development over the next few hours: /1/ near and south of the incoming warm front and /2/ across eastern Iowa. All modes of severe weather would be possible across our area, including the threat for a few tornadoes. Deep layer shear in excess of 50 kts will support rotating storms and supercell structures and sizable CAPE in the hail growth zone will foster large hail development, potentially to the size of golf balls or even larger with some analogs supporting 2"+ hail not out of the question. Recent runs of the HRRR have been a bit concerning, developing robust storms near the incoming warm front and into the I-80 corridor. Locally backed surface flow would support a tornadic potential with these storms as they interact with the front and gain access to considerable streamwise vorticity. Think it looks too aggressive based on latest satellite trends, but we will need to keep our eyes peeled for development near and south of I-80 during the 8 to 11 PM time frame. The other area of convection--to our west in eastern Iowa--may attempt to develop into our western counties later this evening, likely after 10 PM or so. A tornado threat will continue here, although CAM guidance indicates some propensity for storms to congeal into clusters which may eventually deliver more of a damaging wind and hail threat as this second area of activity pushes eastward into the overnight hours. Finally, a flash flood potential does exist this evening and overnight, although the spatial breadth and magnitude of this threat still is uncertain due to the mesoscale processes involved. Current thinking is that the Flash Flood Watch captures the favored corridor well, and no immediate changes are planned. Carlaw

Full disclosure, JOT went up 4 degrees in the past hour which was the basis for my guess. I really don't know how much of a rise there will be.

Sun out here too. Might be able to pull off about a 4-7 degree rise (?) in temps as we take advantage of late day insolation before temps slowly fall.

Definite northward progress since last time I posted the map

We don't have a big convective complex ongoing, so there is really nothing to hold back the warm front from making a significant northward push from where it currently is. Question I have for later this evening is how long storms will remain surface based/near surface based. The pressure gradient is not all that strong to keep the low levels well mixed after dark... on the other hand, the airmass near/south of the warm front is quite moist to keep the amount of nocturnal cooling somewhat in check so could envision a wind/tornado threat lingering into the overnight... at least isolated.

Warm front is still pretty far south. On a more localized scale for parts of IL/WI, the E/SE flow off of a relatively cool Lake Michigan should further limit a tornado threat close to the lake.

Some clearing spreading from Iowa into western IL. Should get a nice bump in temps in northern IL later. I do wonder if somewhat greater severe chances could set up in the central/southern LOT cwa compared to farther north, but it's a bit unclear.

CAMs do show at least some potential.

Had no idea there was a Muncie, Illinois. Learn something new all the time.

Preliminary rating for the Jefferson City tornado is higher end EF3.

Tomorrow looks conditionally interesting in the north/east part of the risk area, i.e. in this region.

83 mph gust in Watseka.