Hoosier

Based on the damage pics I have seen and radar data, I am confident that the tornado around Ellettsville is EF2+.

Woman tells how he survived tornado by hanging onto tree near Ellettsville, Indiana Nicole Rood tells how she survived a tornado by holding onto the door handle of a house as she was lifted off the ground in the 6400 block of West Cowden Rd., Saturday, June 16, 2019 near Ellettsville, Ind. Rood's boyfriend Brett Cantrell survived by hanging onto a tree across the road. The couple were in their car when the storm stuck, and exited their car to find a safe place. The tornado destroyed several homes, tore up trees, and left dangerous live power lines scattered around the area. https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/video/nicole-rood-tells-how-she-survived-a-tornado-by-holding-news-footage/1156231248?adppopup=true

Tornado warning south of Peoria.

Not saying we will get a redux but the 8/24/2016 tornado fest occurred with a remnant MCV. Just shows what they are capable of in the more extreme outcomes.

5% tornado probs in the OH Valley today.

Things might pick up a bit after the midpoint of the month.

Looks like the earthquake occurred in the northeast Ohio seismic zone.

That came out of nowhere.

ENH added from the St. Louis area eastward into IN.

Definitely some broad rotation in that cell.

Warned cell around the Quad Cities.

1.5" hail in Berwyn.

Boundary in northeast IL/northwest IN has put on the brakes and even appears to have retreated north/east a bit. Will have to see if any cell can take advantage of it, though low level flow is fairly weak so it may still be tough to get a spinner.

20z outlook expresses some doubts about convective coverage in the ENH area.

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 203 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019 SHORT TERM... 155 PM CDT Through Tonight... An outflow/lake breeze composite boundary has pushed inland to near a Woodstock to Naperville to Wheeler line based on latest surface observations. The airmass to the east and north of this boundary has been stabilized, with dewpoints in the upper 50s and temperatures in the upper 60s. This stabilization is also demarcated by stable wave clouds on GOES-16 visible satellite imagery. Latest guidance does indicate the breezier synoptic southwesterly flow may force this boundary back east a bit through the afternoon hours, and how this modified airmass impacts the severe potential into portions of Lake (IL) and Cook counties remains a bit uncertain at this time. Recent ACARS soundings out of Midway show this stable layer is pretty robust, with a notable temperature inversion present near the surface. With additional diabatic heating, would expect at least some airmass recovery on the cool side of this boundary with baroclinicity starting to wash out a bit over the next 1 to 3 hours. If this boundary remains robust, however, it could locally mute the severe threat into Cook and Lake counties later this evening by limiting the potential for strong downdrafts and associated winds to reach the surface. The other question stems around a notable pocket of dry air now being analyzed in the 850-700 mb layer with 850 mb dewpoints under 0 C now being analyzed across portions of northwestern Illinois and into our far western counties. This could tend to work against updraft intensity--at least initially--although an axis of much higher moisture is analyzed near I-90. With surface temperatures having warmed into the 80s, dewpoints in the lower 60s, and steep mid-level lapse rates in place overhead, MLCAPE values are, nonetheless, inching past 2000 J/kg early this afternoon, especially near and west of the I-90 corridor. Mid-level winds are also increasing ahead of a small but sharp shortwave, and effective deep layer shear values are pushing north of 30-35 kts across the region (lower south of I-80, highest north). 500 mb height falls on the order of 50-60 m/12 hr have been noted spreading towards southern Wisconsin. Associated increases in forcing for ascent will be responsible for expanding showers and thunderstorms along and incoming cold front through the evening hours. All of this taken together spells a continued threat for strong to severe storms across our region this afternoon. Hi-res guidance continues to struggle with a rather wide disparity in solutions still noted this afternoon. Storms are beginning to develop across southwestern Wisconsin at this hour, near a developing weak surface low and at the leading edge of stronger ascent from the incoming shortwave. Latest thinking is that storms will continue to develop south and westward over the next hour or two, eventually nearing Winnebago, Ogle, and Lee counties towards 4 PM or so. Additional convection is also attempting to develop along the aforementioned outflow/lake breeze across southern Cook and into Lake (IN) and Porter counties. The airmass immediately ahead of this boundary is unstable and only weakly capped, so we will need to keep an eye on this area for potential storm development as well. Initial discrete/isolated activity will carry a risk for large hail (potentially up to ping pong-golf ball sized), but storms should quickly begin to congeal into line segments as robust forcing overspreads the area. As a result, the severe threat will begin to transition to mainly wind damage, with a potential for 60-70 mph wind gusts. At this time, think the main severe corridor may end up developing near and north of I-80, and particularly focusing along I-88 and I-90 where instability will be maximized. The tornado threat is low from a synoptic standpoint with minimal low-level hodograph curvature, but we will be keeping an eye on any stronger updrafts which manage to develop near this feature later this afternoon. A brief tornado spin-up or two can`t be ruled out in the vicinity of this boundary, but the main severe risk still appears to be from hail and damaging winds. Looks like a surging line of storms will move out of our south and eastern counties by mid-evening with a continued threat for strong to locally damaging wind gusts. Will be holding onto some low PoPs behind this line of storms with lingering moisture and some instability to work with, but the main severe window will come to a close by about 9-10 pm area-wide. Carlaw

I'm wondering that too. Not sure if the models get continuous input on the state of the vegetation.

The boundary that just went through Chicago *could* locally enhance the tornado threat a little for anything tracking along it later... wherever it is by then.

Yeah, the threat in northern IL looks as decent if not better than where the ENH is currently placed.

Dews coming in under guidance would temper instability some, as has been mentioned in the discussions. Haven't checked to see how the CAMs are handling dews.

Upgraded to enhanced farther south/west Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS INTO A PORTION OF THE MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon central and eastern Kansas, northern Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois and extreme southeast Iowa. Other more isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the southern through central High Plains. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough now over the northern High Plains will become absorbed within the amplifying northern stream and move southeast through the Midwest region Saturday. Cold front initially from the upper Great Lakes through western KS will move southeast, and by early evening should extend from the southern Great Lakes, northern MO into southeast CO where it will likely stall. ...Central Plains through the Midwest regions... The atmosphere from KS through the Midwest is expected to become moderately to strongly unstable Saturday afternoon with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE supported by the northeast advection of low-mid 60s F dewpoints through the warm sector beneath plume of steeper (7-7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) lapse rates. Some model solutions are overdone with low-level dewpoints by several degrees, apparently due to excessive evapotranspiration, but correcting for this still supports moderate to strong instability as the surface layer warms during the afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to initiate along the cold front by mid afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes and the cap weakens. Northwesterly winds will strengthen to 40+ kt at 500 mb, especially from eastern KS through central IL as height gradient increases in association with the amplifying upper trough. This will support 35-40 kt effective bulk shear. Both supercell and multicell storm modes are expected with initial discrete storms eventually consolidating into lines or clusters as they spread southeast. Damaging wind and large hail will be the main threats. ...Southern High Plains... Storms are expected to once again develop over the higher terrain of NM and southwest TX and subsequently spread east into the High Plains. Have introduced a slight risk over this region where a belt of somewhat stronger winds aloft and moderate instability will promote a parameter space sufficient for a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% - Enhanced ..Dial.. 05/31/2019

It does look slight risk worthy.

Early week does appear to have some potential. Just focusing on Monday for now, the warm frontal zone could get interesting. Will probably be dealing with storms early in the day though which could muddle things.

Been a tough day. The weakly forced setups are more prone to getting derailed, generally speaking.

New LOT afd is pretty pessimistic.

SPC added an ENH/30% wind area on the new outlook. Not clear to me how widespread of a wind threat will evolve so I'm gonna hold my tongue from further comment lol.